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ECB President Christine Lagarde. Alamy Stock Photo

ECB to keep interest rates at 4%, with goal of returning inflation to 2% over time

Christine Lagarde has been pushing back against the markets that are looking for indications on when borrowing rates will be cut.

LAST UPDATE | 25 Jan 2024

THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK has decided not to change interest rates.

The ECB launched an unprecedented rate hiking cycle in 2022 after Russia’s war on Ukraine caused another spike in inflation in the wake of the pandemic.

Inflation is now slowing steadily, and the ECB has left rates unchanged after their third consecutive meeting today, meaning the benchmark deposit rate stays at the current record-breaking level of 4%. 

The governing council of the bank reiterated that it considers rates are at levels that will contribute to returning inflation to the 2% mark.

President Christine Lagarde has pushed back against the markets already, last week she said that it is “too soon to shout victory” in relation to inflation. 

She told Bloomberg television that the first rate cut would “likely” only come this summer and only if the latest data supported such a move, citing economic uncertainties and concern about rising wages.

The US Federal Reserve is facing a similar situation, where Fed officials have been pushing back on market expectations of rate cuts. 

After months of decline, eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9% in December.

The increase was mainly due to the comparison effect with a year earlier, when governments provided exceptional support to help households with energy bills. 

Mortgage rates in Ireland

Mortgage brokers in Ireland have warned that homeowners should consider switching providers in advance of the end of their fixed-term loans, as more rate rises may be in sight.

Despite it being predicted that the ECB would stay put on rate rises for now, brokers said that the full impacts of recent rate rises have not yet been fed through to consumers. 

Mark Coan, the founder of Money Sherpa, told The Journal that his working assumption is that rates will stay high for quite a while, and that some buyers should see it as a bonus if they do come down. 

Coan explained that lenders have not yet passed the full extent of ECB rate rises through to borrowers and because of this he expects both variable rates and fixed rates to increase within the year.

Coan’s view is that we could see the average variable rate jump from approximately 4% currently to as high as 6%, while the average fixed rate could jump from 4% to 5%.

Other mortgage brokers shared this view. Read more about mortgage advice from experts here.

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    Mute Kevin O Brien
    Favourite Kevin O Brien
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:01 PM

    Can FFG please explain why are Irish mortage rates
    the highest in Europe

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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:16 PM

    @Kevin O Brien: one of the reasons is the lack of evictions / impossibility of evictions/ cost of eviction in Ireland. Even when a judge eventually does grant an order for possession to the lender ( an ‘eviction’ per se) it’ll normally come with a 9-15 month ‘stay’ on the order. The ‘errant’ Tennant that doesn’t ( or can’t) make repayments knows it’ll be a 2+ year hiatus until they’re eventually moved out….. someone has to pay for that

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    Mute Jerry LeFrog
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:29 PM

    @Ken Mc Carthy: I think the law ‘protects’ illegal occupiers in other countries too. I read several cases in France where the owner could not evict squatters for months (years possibly) despite having a valid eviction order signed by a judge…
    I’d say another reason for high Irish mortgage rates is the race for greed and the desire to satisfy shareholders. And the lack of proper competition

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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:33 PM

    @Jerry LeFrog: yes ‘greed & profit’ are the obvious ones …… but, in reality, eviction is pretty much non- existent in Ireland. I understand some tennants ‘fall’ along the road of life ( illness, redundancy, divorce etc) but they’re are a lot of tennants who ‘game’ the system & there is a cost to that

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    Mute Kevin Collins
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:38 PM

    @Kevin O Brien: ??? Irish mortgage rates are nowhere near the highest in Europe, in fact they are some of the lowest.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/615037/mortgage-interest-rate-europe/

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    Mute Mic JHintl
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:49 PM

    @Ken Mc Carthy: ya and rightly so until there is a proper bankruptcy system in place with no bank vetoes. The banks complaining about the protection of home owners all the while they are being protected over citizens in relation to financial distress. Its not a one way street here.

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    Mute Tom Brennan
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:49 PM

    @Kevin Collins:
    Wow, wow, wow there mister, you can’t just come here and present facts… That has no place in here. You need to look into the mirror there and have a think about what you have done here… Jeezz…

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:54 PM

    @Ken Mc Carthy: In the States you can simply hand the keys back to the lender and walk away. It’s called ‘Jingle Mail’. The lender owns the property (until the mortgage is paid off). The borrower has no responsibility for the loan beyond that point.

    In Ireland, when the property is handed back to the lender, the borrower still owes the lender the difference between the value of the property (when sold off) and the outstanding value of the loan plus accrued interest.

    And that is hanging over the head of every such borrower, affecting their ability to live any sort of normal life thereafter.

    In the States, it is the lender that is recognised as being the financial expert, not the borrower, and is responsible for making the bad loan.

    In Ireland, it is the borrower that is held responsible, despite most not have any financial expertise, while the lender with all its expertise is protected.

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    Mute Kevin Collins
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    Jan 25th 2024, 3:28 PM

    @ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: What you are referring to is something called a “non-recourse loan”. These typically have an interest rate that is 1-1.5% higher than a standard mortgage due to the higher risk involved for the lender. Like regular mortgages, it is the borrower – *not the lender* – who owns the property from day one.

    In the US, the widespread use of credit scoring also means that if you default on a non-recourse loan you will have little prospect of ever obtaining another property – this even applies to renting.

    In summary, non-recourse loans are highly risky for both parties and are not the panacea that you make them out to be.

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    Mute Tom Donnell
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    Jan 25th 2024, 4:09 PM

    @Jerry LeFrog: There’s no greedy banks in other countries?

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jan 25th 2024, 7:13 PM

    @Kevin Collins: No. In this case, the lender owns the property.

    That is why the borrower is able to walk away.

    Here, we don’t own the property either.

    We do own the loan – the mortgage.

    The banks here have us over a barrel.
    Despite their being the ones with the financial expertise, they are not held responsible for a failed loan.
    Here, it is the borrower who pays.

    One way or the other.

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    Mute Frank Koek
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    Jan 25th 2024, 12:12 PM

    Not really record breaking rates are they?
    I still have nightmares from the double digit rates in the nineties, so 4% is not exactly record breaking.

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    Mute Evan Duncan
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    Jan 25th 2024, 12:42 PM

    @Frank Koek: It is record breaking. The ECB was founded in 1998 after the introduction of the Euro, and 4% is the highest rate they’ve ever had.

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    Mute JedBartlett
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    Jan 25th 2024, 12:42 PM

    @Jimmy Wallace: And tell me, Jimmy, did your house cost 350/400k and were you also forking out €1200 a month on childcare on top of your mortgage?

    These are different times.

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    Mute Shane C
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    Jan 25th 2024, 12:47 PM

    @Jimmy Wallace: on a plus side house prices were a fifth of what they are now – only the estate agents win

    35
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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:03 PM

    @Jimmy Wallace: 8.9% for me (1991)….. but they told me it was a real bargain as I was ‘in the forces’

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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:23 PM

    @Jimmy Wallace: ah jeez you’re not comparing ‘like-with-like’ at all. I got my first mortgage @ 22 ( 1991) & the repayments were 26% of my nett income over 24.5yrs ( & I was starting out in my career). When you read a nurse+guard in Dublin can hardly get on the property ladder….cmon….its like comparing apples & oranges. Yes the % rate was high back-in-the-day but in relation to “income/affordability” we had it way easier truth be told

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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:47 PM

    @Jimmy Wallace: you IMPLIED THAT with your ‘it was tougher back-in-the-day’ statement

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    Mute John Terry
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:32 PM

    @Ken Mc Carthy: I lived in that era too and am sick to my back teeth with the ‘it’s harder now moan’….every new generation think they had it the worst……and they’ve no idea because they didn’t live in the previous era.I can guarantee you the next generation will tell this generation’you had it easy,look at us’

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    Mute Martin Mongan
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:55 PM

    @John Terry: John having his daily moan on the journal without a hint of self awareness, I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt though can you find one comment you’ve ever posted here that WASNT you moaning about everyone?

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    Mute ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:57 PM

    @John Terry: It *is* harder now, John Terry.

    How would you be able to pay the mortgage on a current home purchase, and still support the rest of us?

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    Mute John Terry
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    Jan 25th 2024, 5:32 PM

    @Martin Mongan: obsessed with me as usual.My point is a fact,Yes certain things are harder now but also certain things were a lot harder back then.All relative.

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    Mute John Terry
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    Jan 25th 2024, 5:35 PM

    @ItWasLikeThatWhenIGotHere: nonsense as usual.most people who claim things are harder now never lived through the 70’s/80’s…….with taxes over 70%/ interest rates in the late teens…and jobs were like hens teeth…so what if houses were cheaper if you couldn’t get a job.It was as difficult then as now.

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    Mute Martin Mongan
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    Jan 25th 2024, 6:44 PM

    @John Terry: so no you can’t find anything positive you’ve ever said. Unsurprising from someone who spends his days on the journal looking down his nose at everybody.

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    Mute Padraig O'Brien
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    Jan 25th 2024, 1:36 PM

    Carry on slaving you peasants. We,the overlords know best what is good for you.

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    Mute John Murphy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:40 PM

    RTE board – anyone surprised with the incompetence displayed?

    48
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    Mute Ken Mc Carthy
    Favourite Ken Mc Carthy
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    Jan 25th 2024, 2:47 PM

    @John Murphy: you gotta suspect we’re still a long long way from the eventual truth. Still, Catherine Martin said its out duty to pay the €160 rte tax

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    Mute Robert Halvey
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    Jan 25th 2024, 3:23 PM

    I love being Irish And European,

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    Mute RC247
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    Jan 26th 2024, 3:21 PM

    Genuine question, why would higher rates need to be passed on by banks, if and when the ECB rates drop? It’s not like they’re hedging energy…… buying ahead of time….

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