IRELAND MUST STOP using harmful fossil fuels by 2039 to have a chance of achieving climate action targets, the Climate Change Advisory Council has said.
New advice for policymakers details that Ireland must reduce its emissions by an average of at least 6.3% each year.
That’s in order to try reach an overall reduction of 67% by 2040 (relative to 2018) so that Ireland can comply with legally binding targets and play its part to help prevent global climate catastrophe.
Driving down excessive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane has been a challenge for Ireland in recent years. Last year was the first time there was a tangible sign of real progress being achieved, with the lowest emissions recorded of any year in last three decades.
However, there’s still a lot of work facing the incoming government.
A crucial step is to phase out harmful fossil fuels by as soon as 2039, a panel of experts has said.
In particular, decarbonising the energy sector, which still relies on fossil fuels like gas and oil, will be key.
The Climate Change Advisory Council, tasked with equipping Ireland’s policymakers with information on how to tackle the climate crisis, has proposed new carbon budgets to limit the country’s emissions reductions in the years to 2040.
Ireland’s first carbon budgets, which were created in 2021, set out the amount of emissions that the country can afford to produce over three five-year cycles (2021-2025, 2026-2030 and 2031-2035) – though compliance within the first few years of the current, first budget was poor.
Now, the Council has proposed a fourth carbon budget from 2036 to 2040 that says the country should limit itself to 120 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (the metric used to measure greenhouse gas emissions) in total across those four years.
In comparison, the current carbon budget cycle allocated 295 megatonnes in total between 2021 and 2025.
The Council has stressed that this scale of change in Ireland’s emissions will require significant action by the government.
It said although there are upfront investment costs involved, it would be more expensive to delay action and then be burdened by the costly impacts of climate change and continued dependence on fossil fuels.
Chairperson Marie Donnelly explained that although the budgets are “challenging”, they are “necessary” for Ireland to become carbon-neutral before 2050, as well as halting Ireland’s contribution to climate change.
Donnelly said the transition “will bring significant political and social challenges” but that it also “presents us with an opportunity to achieve a more sustainable society, a cleaner environment with improved health and well-being for all of our citizens”.
Council member Professor Peter Thorne of Maynooth University warned that the proposal for 2040 has not baked in any potential overshoot of emissions that could happen between now and 2030.
“If emissions exceed the agreed carbon budget, then the exceedance must be deducted from the next carbon budget,” he cautioned.
That means that exceeding the carbon budgets for the years between now and 2030 would make the 2040 target harder to achieve.
The last government coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party established the carbon budgets in line with efforts to make sure Ireland complies with legally binding climate targets at home and abroad.
Now, after last month’s election, it will be up to the next government to ensure Ireland stays within those targets (or, if they fail, to face the prospect of the State paying hefty fines).
“A crucial step to help achieve [the budgets] is for government to prioritise investment and resources now by phasing out harmful fossil fuels as early as 2039 and saving people and businesses money,” said Marie Donnelly.
She explained that this would help Ireland to “avoid future fines and compliance costs, provide the opportunity to deliver energy independence, reduce costs and help to maintain our competitive economy in a low carbon world, while building greater resilience to the impacts of climate change”.
Donnelly added that the process of change must be managed “carefully” and “in a way which ensures that potential impacts on people, communities and nature are properly addressed”.
“Mobilising financial supports, quickly, will help people and households, in both urban and rural communities, as well as the most impacted sectors, take action at the speed and scale required. We also need to see the upskilling of people and businesses for new technologies and practices, while reskilling those sectors that are most impacted,” she said.
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