EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS like storms and flooding show Ireland’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change, according to a significant new Irish report.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published Ireland’s first Climate Change Assessment Report, a scientific assessment of how Ireland’s climate is changing and what the country needs to do to prevent disastrous climate impacts.
The sweeping assessment spans four volumes looking at the science of Ireland’s changing climate, measures to mitigate climate change, how to prepare and protect against impacts, and how to achieve the benefits of a climate-neutral, sustainable future.
Annual average temperatures over Ireland are now around 1°C higher than they were a century ago, the report states. Though the margin may appear narrow, even changes in average temperatures that seem small numerically can have major impacts.
Of Ireland’s 20 warmest years on record, 16 occurred since 1990, with 2022 the hottest year on record to date.
Heavy precipitation extremes have also increased and sea level rise has grown at a higher rate than the global average since the late 20th century in Cork and Dublin.
The report says that “recent extreme events in Ireland highlight the vulnerability of individuals, communities, sectors and ecosystems to climate change and indicate an adaptation deficit”.
It outlines in depth the ways that climate change will impact Ireland, including:
The report identifies that Ireland has made limited progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to date, referencing that Ireland currently has the second highest per-capita emissions across the EU.
It notes that Ireland’s current policy direction emphasises changes in technology, rather than looking at wider systemic changes, adding that “taking action to address the direct drivers of emissions may challenge vested interests that have a strong interest in maintaining the current status quo”.
“To enact this transformation, it is essential to broaden the scope of measures aimed at accelerating emissions reduction, including by addressing indirect drivers of emissions such as institutions, economic models, settlement and infrastructure, governance, demographics and sociocultural factors,” it states.
It says that “fairer and more equal societies are more resilient to impacts and are more likely to adopt progressive transformative policies”.
Prioritisation of wellbeing and equity in development and climate policy could bolster the democratic social contract in support of transformation, including improved quality of life, decent work and the value of care.
“Emissions-intensive activities are likely to face growing pressures to change or contract, which increases the need for just transition, and to enable opportunities for economic diversification.”
EPA Director General Laura Burke said the assessment is a “major contribution to our understanding of the impacts and challenges experienced and posed by climate change in Ireland”.
She said it shows the “scale of the challenge for Ireland to become climate neutral and climate resilient”.
It reinforces the need for Ireland to pick up the pace of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to our changed and future climate.
“If we can reach net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, then many of the key components of the climate system such as temperature and precipitation would stabilise within the lifetime of many of today’s younger citizens and to the benefit of all of society.”
“Achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 requires significant and unprecedented changes to Ireland’s energy system,” the assessment says.
Policies tailored to suit different stages of technology development will be “critical” for reaching a net zero energy system, with established technologies like wind energy, solar panels and bioenergy necessary to meet short-term emission reduction targets.
Offshore wind infrastructure is expected to be the “backbone” of future energy systems.
“This can only be achieved with appropriate support schemes, regulation and investments for synergistic growth of offshore wind and other renewable technologies,” the report details.
“Future energy choices post 2030 need greater exploration to plan for the required transition. In sectors such as transport and the built environment, reaching net-zero principally, although not exclusively, is going to be achieved through electrification.”
The assessment says that deep emission reductions within the agriculture and land use sectors are a critical aspect of Ireland’s efforts to prevent climate change and transition to a low-carbon economy.
“Optimal use of no-regret livestock management measures, including increasing the dairy Economic Breeding Index, improving herd genetics, improving animal health and promoting efficient feeding strategies, will help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” it says.
“Despite the recognition of the importance of agricultural emissions and land use removals, there is a critical research gap in determining the specific levels of emissions that can feasibly be balanced with land use practice.
“The research on land use, land use change and forestry suggests that the primary means to get to net zero for this sector is through unprecedented rates of afforestation and the rewetting of organic soil along with a significant reduction in herd numbers.
“The majority of the mitigation options available in Ireland are still in the early implementation stages, and there is an urgent need for Ireland to explore various diversification strategies to enable deep mitigation.”
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