A LEADING HOUSING expert has raised concerns that the State may still be “forward-counting” housing completions, and that the practice could lead to a potential distortion in information about the sector. 

Lorcan Sirr, a senior lecturer at TU Dublin’s School of Surveying and Construction Innovation, has been involved in evaluating housing policy for 15 years.

He’s due to address a panel of TDs and senators on the Oireachtas housing committee this afternoon on the subject of home completion data. 

Sirr was one of a number of experts to raise concerns, back in 2016, that housing output figures were being “grossly over-counted” at the time, as ESB connections were being used as a metric. 

It was found that many new connections to the ESB grid that were automatically counted as new homes were in reality milking parlours, workshops, garden sheds and vacant houses that were coming back into use.

Since then, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has refined their methodology to be more accurate, but it still pulls in data from ESB connections.

He’s set to set out to the politicians how the methodology has changed in the last decade, noting that “the CSO have done considerable work to refine the methodology for counting new housing output”.

They still use connection to the ESB grid as the metric for counting a new house or apartment – as it is collected in a consistent method and in a consistent format by a single organisation (ESB Networks).

However, they also double-check the number of ESB-based completions with the database kept by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) of BER certificates – as the majority of units will have a new domestic BER certificate registered within three months.

He’s set to tell the committee that on this basis, “the CSO’s new dwelling completion statistics are now regarded as being far more accurate than in previous years”.

Sirr argues, however, that there are arguably still some issues, not with the work of the CSO, but with the substance of what’s being counted.

He says that connection to the ESB grid does not mean the dwelling is completed, as new buildings are connected to an electricity supply far in advance of completion.

“Concrete shells with no flooring, kitchens, bathrooms or plastered walls are included in the figures for new homes once they have power.

“Consequently, connection to the ESB grid does not mean the dwelling is legal to occupy, and we are arguably forward-counting the number of new dwellings completed annually, and potentially distorting market information.

“Any fall in completions will be commensurately amplified.”

Essentially, Sirr argues, new dwellings are counted as “completed” despite mostly not being legal for households to move into.

He suggests that to address this, the local authority planning system should link Certificates of Compliance on Completion with the CSO’s Residential Property Price Index, and the Residential Tenancies Board’s Rent Index.

Currently, people can opt out of the certificate, which means some data isn’t collected. Sirr recommends it become mandatory. 

The Building Control Management System (BCMS) is an online platform that allows property owners, builders, developers, architects and engineers to submit statutory building notices and applications electronically, such as Commencement Notices, 7 Day Notices and Certificates of Compliance on Completion.

Sirr says the BCMS has lacked a consistent method of data collection, as information for each development is entered by assigned certifiers or builders and verified by each local authority.

“The system within the BCMS which allows for inconsistencies across jurisdictions needs to be reformed in order to ensure the same information is recorded in the same format across all 31 local authorities.”

He adds that his recommendations are not criticisms of the CSO or the operators of the BCMS.

Senior statistician at the CSO Cormac Halpin will tell the committee that one potential reason for discrepancies in housing completions is multi-unit developments, particularly apartment blocks, “being recorded as a single unit”.

The CSO believes the ESB new connections data is the “best available source on which to base statistics relating to new dwelling completions”.

Correction: This article was updated at 12.40pm to clarify that Lorcan Sirr’s comments about housing completion figures being “grossly overcounted” relate to practices in 2016, and not the current methodologies used.