IRELAND IS UNLIKELY to meet its climate obligations, even under the “most optimistic scenario”.

That’s according to a new report by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) on the national energy projections for 2024.

The report provides an assessment of how Ireland is likely to perform against the national Climate Action Plan and EU climate and energy targets.

The Government’s Climate Action Plan aims to halve Ireland’s emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by no later than 2050.

Ireland is also obliged to contribute to EU level targets contained within the EU Climate and Energy Framework.

If Ireland falls short of its commitments to its EU targets for 2030, or any interim targets, there may be a requirement to pay compliance costs or implement mandated additional measures to close the gap.

Ireland missed its 2020 targets and had to purchase “credits” from other countries as a result.

William Walsh, CEO of the SEAI, said that even if Ireland “achieves the most optimistic scenario detailed in this report, and hit all Climate Action Plan targets, it is likely that gaps to our energy and climate obligations will remain”.  

The report adds that even with a massively scaled effort for technology deployment across all sectors, it is now likely too late for Ireland to meet its legally binding 2030 obligations at EU and national levels.

When looking at compliance with national climate obligations, the report notes that the national carbon budget is projected to be exceeded in all scenarios.

A carbon budget is the total amount of emissions that may be released during an agreed five-year period.

Even with additional measures, Ireland is projected to exceed the 2030 limit by 17%.

And when it comes to compliance with EU targets, Ireland is projected to miss its agreed overall 2030 targets for energy efficiency, renewable energy share and greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Interim targets for overall renewable energy share for 2025 and 2027 are also expected to be missed in all scenarios.

Walsh said the findings highlight that a “significant expansion of incentives, information and regulation is required to enable us to comply with legally binding climate and energy obligations to 2030 and beyond”.

He added that the report points to a need to enact greater disincentives on large polluting SUVs as well as policy to signal the end of oil and gas boilers for heating.

Walsh also called for greater efficiency of rented dwellings while protecting renters from price hikes and specific tariffs to promote heat pump adoption.

The SEAI CEO remarked that supports must be in place to help “those least able to afford the change to become fossil fuel free” and government needs to ensure “profit making entities are required to be responsible for their climate impact”.