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WHEN JEREMY CORBYN was elected as Labour leader just over four years ago, TheJournal.ie wrote that his long-term challenge would be “contending in the 2020 general election”.
That now sounds almost quaint such is the disintegration of British politics in the interim, but the challenge remains the same.
Corbyn is now facing his second general election as leader and one which much surely be considered a make-or-break one. His supporters have already rubbished such talk but it’s fanciful that Corbyn could survive five more years in opposition.
But if he is to avoid this he must overcome some major challenges.
The first being his unpopularity among the public at a time when politicians are historically unpopular.
One poll published this week in the Financial Times put his net satisfaction rating at -60, the worst of any leader entering an election in forty years.
There are plenty of arguments to be had over why Corbyn is so unpopular, with four years of negative press and plenty of own goals among them, but he has thrown himself into the campaign ignoring any such considerations.
Corbyn is pitching himself in much the same way as in 2017, when the party almost pulled off an unlikely victory, but is doubling down in some key areas.
This is pretty much exactly a case in point when it comes to taxation.
In the party’s hugely ambitious manifesto published on Thursday Labour promised to increase tax revenue by £82.9 billion a year by 2024, nearly twice what the pledge was two years ago when it was £49 billion.
For that tax hike the party is promising huge investment in the national economy, with various economists saying it increases the size of the state’s involvement to the pre-Thatcher days of the 1970s.
Corbyn himself has denied this year’s manifesto was a “throwback” to the 1970s.
Others have pointed to the fact while the tax and spend approach would represent a historic shift for the UK, it isn’t quite out of kilter with some other economies in Europe.
Corbyn has doubled-down in other areas too.
When he was elected leader in 2015 the nationalisation of British railways was among his most talk-about pledges, representing a reversal of the privatisation of British Rail in the mid-1990s.
This has now been hugely expanded with Labour’s manifesto containing plans to nationalise bus, rail, water, energy, broadband and postal services.
The broadband plan released a week earlier was among the most eye-catching pledges of the campaign so far, with its promise to deliver free full-fibre internet to every UK home and business by 2030.
But the announcement of the plan also showed the scale of the challenge and how such nationalisation proposals would be opposed, with BT’s chief executive coming out to say it would cost five times the £20 billion Labour claims.
Labour’s plan came in the same week the Irish government finally signed the contract for the National Broadband Plan, a project beset by delays and huge cost overruns.
The Irish experience could serve as an example for either Corbyn’s supporters or detractors.
Critics might say it shows just how badly big plans can go astray. Others would say it precisely demonstrates why some essential services cannot be left to private companies.
After all, the National Broadband Plan only exists because some areas are not profitable enough for companies to care about.
Brexit
Corbyn of course faces a big problem when it comes to winning support from voters who see Brexit as the most important issue.
Labour’s position on Brexit may not be as confusing its opponents would make out, in fact it’s now quite straightforward, the problem is that it evolved at such a piecemeal rate that the message has already been lost.
The party’s position is that it will seek to renegotiate a deal with the EU and then put that to the people in another referendum with Remain on the ballot paper.
For much of the past 18 months as demand for a ‘People’s Vote’ grew Corbyn resisted taking this position, instead pushing for a general election as a way to break the parliamentary impasse.
Corbyn repeatedly said he was bound by the decision of his party conference, which last year voted for a second referendum to be “an option on the table” and then this year made the holding of a referendum official party policy.
But despite that change, a controversial vote on the floor meant that Corbyn would not be forced to campaign for Remain if such a ballot was to happen.
That remains Corbyn’s position and the problem for him is that it leaves him open to attack from both sides.
In Tuesday’s debate, Boris Johnson repeatedly attacked Corbyn for not answering the “fundamental question” of whether he’s in favour of Remain or Leave.
Corbyn’s repeated defence is that this a question for the British people to answer, but at no point during the debate did it feel like he could put the question to bed.
It’s even more complicated when Labour MPs in Leave voting constituencies are openly disputing party policy, as was the case with Hartlepool MP Mike Hill who tried to convince a reporter that another public vote did not equate to a second referendum.
Another headache arising from Labour’s fudge on Brexit is that it has damaged the party’s chances of entering government by way of a coalition.
While the Liberal Democrats may have their own other reasons why they would not support a Corbyn-led government, his Brexit stance has given them an easy way out.
Jo Swinson’s Remain-supporting party should be jumping at the chance of a second referendum but can point to Corbyn’s ambiguity as a reason not to countenance supporting him.
It’s meant that not only is Labour potentially alienating Brexit voters, but the party’s chance of actually leading the country after an election becomes less believable. A fact echoed in the polls.
But this will not stop Labour from insisting it can win on 12 December.
Corbyn seems to come alive when campaigning, as anyone who watched his impressive 60-second manifesto can attest, so will delight in being an underdog.
He said as much when launching his manifesto, telling the electorate:
“That’s why they throw everything they’ve got at us. Because they’re scared of real change. Because they aren’t on your side.”
“Labour is on your side,” Corbyn added, we’ll have to wait and see the public is on his.
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How any sane person can look and listen to Bojo and still believe he’s a better option than Corbyn is beyond me….that is of course unless you’re a fellow millionaire who’s interests he serves.
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: Bojo is unfortunately the only option to stop the Loonie Lib Woke Left that’s why, so good luck to them.
@Burt CrackerJack: Great rebuttal…straight out of the Daily Mail as expected.
@Burt CrackerJack: at least with boko you know what your getting weather you like it or not but with corbyn nobody knows. He’s jumped the fence more times. History will tell you that people like to be led. Empty promises carry no weight. I don’t like bojo but this was coming for a long time same as trump. He’s an asd but as I said, people like to be led
@Joe Mc: ass not asd
@Burt CrackerJack: Entirely wrong, if you consider the belief that nobody should die because they can’t afford health care or the belief that multi millionaires should pay their FAIR share of tax “looney left” well yeah you can stick that label on me, and far from shutting down free speech I’m encouraging it!…..it’s a pity all the Tory controlled press in the UK don’t follow suit.
@Joe Mc: what do you get with Johnson? Bluster lies. Deceit. He rambles, He’s incoherent and he makes no sense. He’s changed his mind on Brexit. He won’t release the documents on Russian interference. He can’t count how many children he has. He believes the royals are above the law. He had the cops called to his home due to a domestic. He has a woman speaking in the press about his affair. He makes racial slurs. He castigated May on her Brexit deal and then presented a deal far worse to the parliament from the perspective of a unionist. He’s a chalrltan. Whether your politics is left or right you can’t possibly support this idiot. The fact that the polls have this man so far ahead is amazing.
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: and what has it to do with you ,look at your own politicians .
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: Sure, unless it’s Katie Hopkins or anyone who has an issue with Islam of course obviously, great to joke about Christianity or Jews though isn’t it?
Just another hypocrisy, that’s the so called Leftie Libs Problem now. Decent socialists are turning away from being associated with the traditional left wing because of these self righteous fools.
Is it any wonder the tide has turned to the so called right, the new left is destroying all credibility in itself that the old left took years to build, its an absolute implosion of the old socialist values and It’s very sad to see but that’s what lack of education about history has done to this new ‘Woke’ generation, intellect has reached its zenith now, peaked and is only a matter of time the arrogant ‘Left’ hits its Nadir.
@Burt CrackerJack: You’re talking absolute tripe
@JusticeForJoe: I’m intrigued, please divulge.
@Burt CrackerJack: in fairness though you’re talking some nonsense.
@Diarmaid O’Riordáin: I wish it was so and your subdued response only goes to highlight how true it is.
The Hypocrisy of the new left, far left, has become so intolerant about anyone else’s views but their own when they only ironically ever suggest advocating tolerance is a breathtaking contradiction of its values and principles.
The amount of hate and resentment towards anyone who dares to voice an alternative opinion to theirs is quite simply astounding considering the policy’s they say they believe in.
It’s a political agenda not based on the sincerity, it’s become so toxic that it has passed the rubicon of it’s own values in it’s desperate quest to stop its perceived enemy at all cost, double standards in the interest of win at all cost, again, pure hypocrisy.
@Joe Mc: what fence has Corbyn jumped? If you look at his voting record and what he’s campaigned for his entire life he’s been consistent in being anti-war, anti-racism and believes taxpayers money should go to fund public services and infrastructure not to funding tax cuts to mega corporations.
@Burt CrackerJack: so what you’re really saying is that the left should tolerate the intolerance of the right?
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: Well said
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: I somehow doubt you have ever even opened the Daily Mail. Suggest you visit Britain and talk to some life long Labour voters who are disgusted with Corbyn’s stance on Brexit. As for economics, check out Diane Abbott..
@EillieEs: he certainly hasn’t been consistent on Brexit..
@Burt CrackerJack: Corbyn isn’t liberal woke left, he’s like a normal post war social democrat.
@SC: He’s not traditionally obviously because that lot are a basket case but he needs the numbers and he has them bending his ear. That’s why I said there is no decisive leadership with him while he’s being pulled ‘Left Right and Centre’ to get off the fence.
Interesting Blair was the most popular of all when he went into his first election. I thought he was very good, at first, kept to a lot of promises he made, very rare for a leading politician … then he got into bed with Bush, and the fairies must have stolen him and replaced him with a warmongering zombie.
@WoodlandBard:
The UK owed the United States a long favour to the U.S. for supporting them during the Falklands conflict, that’s why.
@Burt CrackerJack: The Malvinas belong to Argentina just as Gibraltar belongs to Spain and the six counties belong to Ireland, Tory’s would never accept that but Jeremy Corbyn would, putting all that aside if you’re working class in the UK and you vote Tory you’re a damn fool!
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: Oh Yes and someone’s house in Dalkey or Howth should be owned by the Irish State because how dare they own property in a free country owned by the people, excuse me but sound like a communist.
@Burt CrackerJack: (you)
@Burt CrackerJack: You’re just ranting now.
@Burt CrackerJack: go to bed pal, how did you come up with communist from what she said? Your blurting nonsense all over this article, above and here…. Go to bed surely you’re drunk.
@Diarmaid O’Riordáin: You Can’t handle the truth as they say.
@Caoimhin O’Murchadha: Lets see how the working class deal with the aftermath of spending £100′s of billions on Labours nationalisation plans. Some estimates have all the plans, post, telecoms, transport and water, costing close to £1trillion. That’s an awful lot of money to spend lumbering the UK with hundreds of thousands of extra state employees. It’s fairytale economics.
@Tommy Roche: the idea is to stimulate the economy. That trillion doesn’t disappear into thin air- it is paid to people who spend it. The important thing is it doesn’t go to foreign contractors, because then it is money down the drain.
@Tommy Roche: it’s all fairytale economics. You think slashing billions from the national budget and taking 20,000 cops off the street is beneficial to working people? Fewer nurses? Why are so many people homeless and unable to help their children? Why has the gap between rich and poor exploded since the 80s and the rise of neo liberalism.
It’s all fairytale economics. The difference is the fairytale you prefer. The world chose Thatcher and Reagan’s fairytale of equality and fairness and rewarding hard work. And we got extreme poverty, a thousand fold increase between the best off and the worst, a return to ugly right wing demagogues and the worlds climate imploding.
But you somehow have concluded that the other side peddle stardust and moonbeams.
Indoctrination.
@Burt CrackerJack: the us didn’t support the UK during the Falklands, the UK was still paying the debt for the second world war.
@Roger Camp: The US chose to give the Brits their approval for their actions diplomatically in the 1982 conflict and they supported their reason for going down to take back the Falklands, the U.S. would’ve backed up GB militarily if required, that was their promise.
Jeremy Corbyn is a thoroughly decent
honorable man and I sincerely hope he gives British politics a moral focus and get it away from the “money boys”
@Top Horse Shop:
He’s a nice guy with Looneys in his ear, no wonder he can’t make his mind up if he’s a brexiteer or a remainer and that’s why people can’t trust his gang.
How is that decisive leadership?
He’s so on the fence he must have splinters on his a*se.
@Burt CrackerJack: Rubbish. He’s a eurosceptic and always has been. And why wouldn’t he be? The EU is an entirely capitalist/neoliberal organisation. Corbyns a socialist a heart. Of course he’s anti EU.
But Brexit has split the country. He can’t put Brexit the Brexit looneys and he knows that leaving will do more damage than staying. It’s an impossible position to be in.
@Shazam37: Yes always a EU Sceptic as has been the preserve of the far Right in the Tories.
This is when his Labour Party needs leadership but he’s found wanting, that’s why the British electorate don’t trust him and his barmy pick n mix bunch.
Its the not knowing your a*se from your elbow politics.
The Conservatives are heading for a majority now because of Corbyn.
@Burt CrackerJack: total nonsense. His dislike of the EU is perfectly rational. The rights is bonkers – they love neoliberal free market economics.
The conservatives are heading for a majority and it has little to do with Corbyn. If No Brexit is. Big sell then Swinson will sail in. But she won’t.
Just opposing Brexit won’t make a difference To Corbyn. Besides his position is perfectly rational – negotiate a deal and offer a referendum on it. What’s the problem?
@Shazam37:
The difference is the immigration issue, The Brexit referendum voters won’t trust him, the ones that are still alive that is, while his stance on migrants is opaque at the very least, if he came along and promised strict control on fake asylum seekers he could swing a lot of votes.
It’s perfectly rational if he was to get in to offer a renegotiated deal to the British Public for referendum but he would have to line out what his preferred terms are in advance of the Election, he won’t be trusted on Immigration and he would have to have a parliamentary majority to get that proposal through to have any chance, ain’t going to happen.
@Burt CrackerJack: Brexit voters won’t trust him But if he promises strict immigrations controls he might swing a lot of votes? From Brexit voters who don’t trust him?
Right. Everyone’s Brexit policy is a mess because Brexit is a mess. Criticising Corbyn for a ludicrous Brexit stance is absurd – Johnson voted for Mays deal. Then against it. Then he said he wouldn’t abandon the North then he negotiated a deal doing precisely that.
Criticising Corbyn for a muddled approach to Brexit is just biased – given there is no sensible Brexit approach.
@Shazam37: A lot of Brexit voters in the referendum of 2016 were Labour voters too, it’s not impossible to swing them back, I never doubted the integrity of Corbyn, he is a genuine good Man in my opinion but it’s not down to his power right now, he has none and even if he got in as PM he would as a “Man of integrity” have to couch down to the promises he made to his new militant so called progressive friends on his benches, sadly the old Socialism of his era is outdated and in the past compared to his “comrades” today.
Hopefully it will .
Next.
I don’t think Ronan Duffy gives a good account of him self here. He alludes to Corbyns lack of popularity as highlighted by the very papers that have vilified him for fear that his successful election. He also alludes to Corbyns plenty of own goals while not engaging with the lack of creditable facts but suggestion to his ideology. Mr. Duffy fails to acknowledge Mr. Corbyns campaigns to save Jewish areas of cultural importance being ignored while offering links to him being at the same event as people with obvious different views to him with regard to culture race and politics. If Mr. Duffy and I both liked Soccer it doesn’t mean he would also like GAA… These poorly formed suggestive claims are silimar to the sort of game playing that had a republican publication changing Barack Obama’s name being altered to be the same as a well known terrorist when introducing him. This obviously is the real story but the media appears to be adverse to tackling it prior to a general election, but instead chose headlines like Corbyn hoping for a ‘red Christmas’ not highlighting its the Labour colours rather than the the more popular conclusion of Communism. Or dare I say it highlight the wish to support the many and not the few in government, something that would negatively affect the papers that so suggest his negativity rather than proving it as they would be well capable of doing.
The crazy thing is that the Labour manifesto isn’t even that radical. It’s also well costed. Unfortunately the murdoch press will spin it as being 5 steps left of Karl Marx.
@Pete Gilmartin: it’s classic social democrat. That was and is very popular in the UK, they remember the post war period fondly.
A LOWER RATING THAN FOOT NO POSSIBLE
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