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SO STRONG ARE party loyalties in Laois that Sinead Moore had to convince her own mother to vote for her in next week’s election.
The Green Party candidate, a teacher based in north Dublin, freely admits there is “not a hope in hell” of her winning a seat “unless there’s an absolute miracle”.
That sort of realism is perhaps why Laois has been described as the most boring and predictable constituency in this election. Just six candidates, including three sitting TDs, are fighting it out for the three seats.
It used to be part of the Laois-Offaly constituency but the boundary redraw in 2012 saw the large five-seater split into two three-seaters with the county of Laois taking in six electoral districts from Kildare South.
Sitting Fine Gael TD Charlie Flanagan describes the constituency as a “microcosm of Ireland in 2016″ with the urban centres of Portlaoise and Portarlington towards the north and the rural farmlands in the south, east and west.
“In east Laois you have the grain farmers, in the south-west you have the dairy farmers and in mid-Laois you have the beef farmers, and then the towns and the challenges they face,” he said.
Many analysts expect the incumbents – Fine Gael’s Flanagan, Fianna Fáil’s Seán Fleming and Sinn Féin’s Brian Stanley – to be returned without too much trouble.
Noel Whelan, the author of The Tallyman’s Campaign Handbook, described Laois as “the most interesting constituency because it’s the most boring”.
“You have three strong, well-placed incumbents who spent their time previously running in a two-county constituency where it was all about ensuring tribal county loyalties to hold the seat,” Whelan explained.
Charlie Flanagan was the Laois Fine Gael candidate as was Seán Fleming for Fianna Fáil. None of their parties are vulnerable. If you had a vulnerable incumbent, there would be a possibility, but none of the three sitting guys look like they could be replaced.
Whelan believes the tradition of party loyalties, along with three strong incumbents has meant potential candidates took a look at the constituency and decided against running.
Stanley, the Sinn Féin TD, believes that Laois has never been a hotbed of independent candidates.
“Independents, in the past, wouldn’t have polled exceptionally well in national elections. They haven’t gained too much traction in the past. when you compare it to what’s happening in other parts of the country,” he said.
Moore, who grew up on a farm in the village of Emo, has a blunt assessment of the outcome next week. She said: “The reason why there are only six candidates going is the three seats are sewn up.
There’s such little chance of breaking through. I had to fight with my mother for her to give me her vote. She is going to vote for me, but I had to work at it!
Moore said she’s pretty much on her own as there is no Green Party in Laois, adding that she hopes to help the party regain state funding it lost in 2011 as a result of garnering less than 2% of the the national vote.
But some in the constituency don’t see the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
Labour senator John Whelan insists he has a genuine chance of taking a seat from Sinn Féin’s Stanley.
Despite his Labour affiliation, Whelan thinks his opposition to the construction of large scale wind farms in the area has galvanised support around his campaign, rather than an independent or single-issue candidate.
Senator John Whelan / TwitterThree generations @labour canvassing Cowpasture @MonasterevanT from nephew Tadgh 18, to stalwart Joe O Rourke 84 pic.twitter.com/7KwCUCPaie
— John Whelan (@SenJohnWhelan) February 6, 2016
He dismissed analyses which say this constituency is already decided:
What’s not being taken into account is I am getting a very positive reaction on the doors. Your analysis is fine on paper, but it doesn’t take into account the boundary review which gifted me a Labour stronghold.
Whelan believes that the addition of six electoral districts, which include 7,500 votes, from Kildare South will help his cause. Labour returned two councillors from that area in the 2014 local elections, bucking a national trend. Whelan repeatedly points out that he was born and raised in Monasterevin, which is now party of the constituency.
If he is within 1,000 votes of Stanley after the first count on Saturday week, Whelan believes he can get sufficient transfers to take the seat.
Stanley believes everybody poses a threat, not just Whelan and insisted: “I am out to maximise the vote for our party.”
The Borris-in-Ossory native disputes the claim that the inclusion of parts of south Kildare will benefit the Labour hopeful.
“I’ve been working on the ground in south Kildare for the last four years and I don’t detect any great support for Labour,” Stanley said.
I know Labour got a very hostile reception there recently when Joan Burton visited. I do know people in the area feel that Labour has neglected the area.
Furthermore, Whelan’s transfer situation is not helped by the addition of a second Fine Gael candidate in Thomasina Connell, which the Labour senator described as “not the most cooperative move from them [Fine Gael]“.
Unsurprisingly, Ballybrittas-based Connell takes a very different view and believes she’s energised the youth vote in the area.
The three sitting TDs are all men in their 50s. I am the youngest candidate and there’s a good response to me.
“People want someone young, the amount of people who have said that to me is unbelievable. We’ve never elected a woman in Laois,” the solicitor said.
Connell believes she can benefit from an increased number of younger voters who were energised by the marriage referendum last year.
One of the men in their 50s she refers to is Seán Fleming, Fianna Fáil’s long-serving TD, who rejected claims that the constituency is all sewn-up for him.
“Ivan Yates has said that and Paddy Power has said that, but nobody has won anything until the final whistle,” he insisted.
The last seat is always up for grabs because Fine Gael have two candidates and John Whelan’s view is that he could end up with a surplus that, if that gap between him and Sinn Féin isn’t that big, he might be able to bridge it.
Similarly, Flanagan, who succeeded his father Oliver in 1987, takes nothing for granted.
“There’s no such thing as an easy election, there’s no such thing as a foregone conclusion, there’s no such thing as a safe seat,” the current Foreign Affairs Minister said.
Flanagan thinks the reason for a lack of independents or other party candidates is “maybe” the view that the politicians who are already elected are “hard working and cover the ground”.
“There is a strong sense of loyalty to parties,” he said.
Charlie Flanagan / TwitterWith Laois Green candidate Sinead Moore at South Laois flooding meeting at Castle Arms Durrow#ge2016 pic.twitter.com/C4VKJ5YNSF
— Charlie Flanagan (@CharlieFlanagan) February 3, 2016
All candidates agree that the big issue on the doors is the future of services at the Midland Regional Hospital in Portlaoise.
There are fears the 24/7 Emergency Department will be downgraded to a day service, but any decision by the HSE has been put off until after the election.
Everyone is quick to stress that the situation is not similar to Roscommon Hospital in 2011, where the downgrading of services led to the departure of Fine Gael TD Denis Naughten.
Portlaoise is a busier hospital, serving a population of over 250,000 in Laois and the surrounding areas.
Flanagan said he will be a tireless advocate for the hospital, but Whelan insisted he will vote against any effort to downgrade services, even if a Fine Gael-Labour government supports it.
Fleming describes the proposal to downgrade services as “ridiculous” and says it should be withdrawn. Stanley said that a report on the matter had been “put under a cushion until after the election”.
Whatever happens everyone’s expecting it to be over quickly on Saturday week, with John Whelan predicting: ”We’ll be able to call the result on the first count.”
Boring and predictable it might be, but Laois should at least provide a quick count on 27 February.
Impressive. A Hugh O’Connell article in which he didn’t quote one of his own Tweets as a source.
Damn, forgot
We would a farming county vote green? Would I be wrong to say they’d find ways to tax every penny they have due to emission produced by cattle
There’s a village in Ireland called Emo? That’s so… like… you just wouldn’t understand. :(
The sign going into it says WARNING Emo community alert. Not messing
WARNING – Panic at the Disco ahead.
Down the road from goth, next door to punk
Thomasina, what a lovely name.
Someone really wanted a boy.
Not so actually. Thomasina had an older brother who died at a young age.
Like Nigella, Georgina and Kevina, all the result of egotistical fathers. Wrecks my head.
Bernadette is another one.
Thomasina is one for the books.
Stupid article! Why does it matter if a constituency is boring or not? Lazy Journalism at its best….
Headline is lazy, article quite informative.
It’s interesting to read the comments in fairness Paddy. Charlie from FG seems to think it’s all about the farmers. Hopefully come polling day he will get a rude awakening .
Another Red c poll out http://m.rte.ie/news/election-2016/2016/0216/768526-poll-suggests-fine-gael-support-down/
Can we just clone stephen donnelly or get the IEI to provide some more brains #smartengineer :))
@ Colm. That poll is bad for FG but worse for SF – down 3 points. And a TG4 poll has Ferris running 6th in Kerry – and would be 7th with any vote management by the Healy-Raes.
@Kerry flanagan, Stanley and Fleming are nailed on seats, as the article, paddy power, Ivan yeats and noel whelan have said. That’s why it’s referred to as the most boring constituency. FG might get a bit of a slap at the polling booth but flanagan won’t be one of them. Likewise Stanley and Fleming. Wish there was more choice but everyone knows there is no point.
Not one has knocked on my door yet. Just the standard to the householder mailing although there’s a moore poster on our green in the estate since storm Imogen. Whelan came close to getting the last seat in 2011. Thomasina is the token woman candidate, never heard of moore before her poster and Brian Stanley is well liked locally. I think people will want to keep a local minister in Charlie so it is down to John and Sean. Hope John gets it this time.
Could be down to Brian and John either come to think of it, I think Fleming being the only ff candidate this time will help him hugely.
Whealn might catch Stanley but I can’t see it. Not one of those six are worth voting for and now I’m torn cause I’m a huge believer that we all should vote.
Vote for Moore so, her mammy is even a doubt! Or Whelan, make the count interesting.
It’s gonna be one of the two and not because I like them (I know nothjng about Moore and her defeatist attitude already irks me) but because I can’t stand the others.
Hello Thomasina I’m Kirk
What the hell is a Laois. Surely this is a made up county?
FG are something else for running 2, talk about shooting Labour in the foot.
A county with a population so small that what ever candidate has the biggest family wins.
A population of 80,600 isn’t that small…it’s just there is no choice with no independent candidates which is an awful shame
Why is having no independent a shame?
Jay, I am asking you here directly to trust me with your vote please? Why is everyone hung up on the small number of candidates – it’s not the Grand National – it’s as intense and as competitive as anywhere else and that’s so because I am putting pressure on all the TDs to up their game – as they have been all poor, with a poor return from them for their community and constituency.
I am the Labour candidate but I am no Yes man, lapdog or party lackey.
I stand for issues on merit, not just standing for election on the party ticket. I have taken on the system and the establishment on behalf of my community and taken chunks and changed policy by the likes of Eirgrid, the HSE , the Irish Wind Energy lobby and the EPA. And I am not finished yet. Although a Senator, I have punched above my weight and worked hard both locally and nationally.
Nothing got to do with me but the constituency boundary review was more like if Carlsberg did boundary changes, this is the one they would have produced for me – Monasterevin is where I grew up in St Evin’s Park and went to school and all across that part of Kildare into Kildangan, Nurney , Kilberry and Castlemitchell – Labour is held in high regard because of the reputation and respect there is for people like Joe Bermingham, Jack Wall, Mark Wall and Aoife Breslin – who have been dedicated to helping families and their community.
My Mam lives in St Evin’s Park and Brian Stanley’s informers have got it all wrong as Joan Burton got a warm welcome to the estate and the town every time she visits. The boundary review has been a great bounce for me but more than that most people know that I am dedicated to delivering and once I get onto an issue I won’t let up until I have it sorted – just like the schools in Portlaoise, Monasterevin, Ballyroan, Timahoe, Portarlington.
In the local elections the facts are that Labour and Sinn Fein both won 3 Council seats in this constituency division. Everyone knows that I will fight on my back to protect Portlaoise Hospital and health services and deliver a result – not just organise a protest.
That’s not to speak of the question marks hanging over Sinn Fein and their bully boy carry-on and ongoing connections to criminality – the vast majority of people in this constituency fear them, fear what they are capable of and do not want them in Government – I share those concerns.
I have strong support and am narrowly trailing Stanley. Ultimately, the third seat is a dogfight between myself and Sinn Fein and will be decided by both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael second preferences – which are coming to me in droves – as all decent Fianna Fail and Fine Gael supporters also fear and want to block Adams and Co getting into Government. Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael astute voters realise that they can elect their own TD and vote for me to block Sinn Fein – have the best of both worlds.
I can get things done and I will get things done – protect Portlaoise A&E and safeguard the status and safety of our Hospital; invest in Abbeyleix Community Nursing Home and invest in create real regional jobs by investing in the Bord na Mona Garryhinch Reservoir project and the Coillte Slieve Bloom Mountain Bike Trails – and not be relying on the IDA. You won’t hear Stanley talking about these projects because he lacks the vision, ability and ambition to deliver at this level.
There are only 6 candidates in the Laois Constituency and the people of Kildare annexed into the new constituency realise that I am their best bet by far for robust, effective representation. Out of this problem comes a great opportunity for the people of Monasterevin to elect one of their own a TD.
While there is no independent running, I am the closest there is to an independently minded candidate and free thinker – no one writes my scripts or play book.
I have agreed to a live debate on Midlands 103 Radio on Tuesday next, February 23rd at 11am, chaired by Will Faulkner. Let’s see if Brian Stanley shows up this time as he normally cops out and sends someone else to do his dirty work.
Anyone who thinks that Laois is boring or a foregone conclusion has another think coming to them and that’s why Sinn Fein are getting more and more nasty with their personal attacks and vile abuse here.
Boring…I don’t think so…watch this space…because while Hugh O Connell is a good hack and is always fair and balanced, Noel Whelan hasn’t a clue and has a neck to call himself an objective pundit.
He’ll be rewriting his Tallyman’s Guide after February 26th!!
John I’ll be honest. I think you’re a good sort and you were a decent voice in the Seanad, but like most people in the country who are left leaning, we have been very disappointed with Labour.
But we in Laois can only vote on the candidates put in front of us. My ideas are totally in line with the Social Democrats and since I can’t vote for them then I must pick a candidate based on the person and not the party. Or not vote at all. And I’ll never do that!
You had my vote in the last election mostly because I believed eamonn Gilmore and his promises and I was disappointed when you didn’t get in.
You’re right about the poor performances about the Laois TD’s and their presence and efforts here in Laois. I have to say that’s not totally true of Stanley, but I won’t vote Sinn Fein.
I’ll be listening in to your debate on radio 3. Convince me. Convince the people of Laois not to just accept the Flanagan (who is probably the most inept TD I’ve ever heard speak) and Fleming as givens.
That’s more than fair Jay. Stay tuned!
Guess I should have sent Stephen Donnelly an email and ran for the social democrats here in Laois.
Same old party loyalties here in Laois. The only question is whether Whealn can pip Stanely for the third seat. Probably not cause Stanley is liked by a lot of people despite his party. Whereas Whealn is liked too, his party will cost him votes.
My view is that Flanagan & Fleming are bankers. Senator John Whelan will cause an upset here and unseat Stanley. Labour bucked the trend & got a Council seat in Portlaoise & Whelan has not been afraid to take on the issues that matter
Joan Burton got a great reception by all accounts not sure where Mr Stanley is getting his reports from? . Great momentum gathering behind John Whelan hes whats needed in this constituency and people are starting to see it
I was looking forward to voting, having my say. I was very disappointed to see only six candidates and no-one from the Social Democrats or DDI. The other thing about Laois is that all the candidates talk about Portlaoise and tend to forget about the area just outside Carlow. I’m not sure what way I will vote. No candidates leaflet mentions TTIP so I ‘ll do a bit of research.
Agree completely. I’m annoyed at the choices I have to vote on. Was hoping the Social Democrats ran a candidate here in Laois. Or one independent to stand up and have a go.
Couldn’t agree with you more
Free country @Jay. You could have put yourself forward as either a SD or independent. If you are annoyed at the choice you do have the power to change it.
You have the power to go forward just not the financial backing to do so
Who’s yer wan?
Thomasina?
Only in it for the €€€€€€€€€ ?
Most people in Laois are too busy commuting to Dublin mon to fri to be bothered with politics
You lost me at Laois
John Deasy Water Privatization-WLR Debate
Feb 16, 2016
Waterford Fine Gael td John Deasy reply to a question about water charges / Irish Water and water privatization on Wlr 2016 general election debate, aired on February 16th .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2umJ7uJ3V7c&feature=youtu.be
Fine Geal’s John Deasy is all for privatisation of your water and he is spouting the old lie that it would be cheaper if you would just let a profit driven private corporation just sell you water…
With John Whelan what you see is what you get, he doesn’t do half measures, if he is with you he is with you, ask those campaigning against wind farms, ask those concerned about the future of Portlaoise Hospital, ask those affected by ENVA, now decide who you want in your corner in the next DAIL.
I’d be asking John whelan to mend those potholes first
Brian Stanley is a waste of space numerous emails and visits to his office in relation to an environmental issue no reply, even though he is SF environmental spokesperson.
Why on earth did they split a grand five seater into two three seaters, especially when Dublin Bay North lost a seat (when constituencies merged) and Dublin South -> Dublin Rathdown lost two seats? It makes no sense, and gives us less options for whom to vote for. I hope Flanagan loses his seat again. He’s awful.
John Whelan has more sense, gumption and fight than the lot of them put together. He knows right from wrong and has guts to act. This is the first time I’ll be voting with enthusiasm and belief. John’s work on the Enva pollution issue has been invaluable to the people of Portlaoise.
If u had a mouse hole in your skirting board, Sean Fleming would be on the other side. He’s like God – he sticks his head in everywhere.
It may have the least number of candidates and that’s somewhat disappointing, but there is still a choice. Flanagan and Fleming are shoo ins, but there is a choice between a very dedicated and passionate guy, who has his own very strong opinions and has challenged his party on many occasions and that is John Whelan. Fine Gael haven’t helped him by putting up Thomasina who has no chance, its probably just an awareness generating ploy by them, placing her in line to take over Flanagan’s seat wen he retires. John Whelan may lose votes because he is associated with Labour, but look past that, this guy can do something positive for this constituency, he is far more invested in what is happening, what matters, what affects this constituency than Stanley. Look past Labour, give John Whelan a vote.
North of Ireland
It certainly is most boring. Same old faces that need to be put out to pasture or sent to knackers yard
Spotted someone known to be a drug dealer putting up posters for Fleming , he won’t be getting my vote.
have your say