ON SATURDAY, A rocket strike in Madjal Shams, a town in the Golan Heights, killed 12 young people between the ages of 10 and 20 who were playing football.
The strike has drawn global condemnation, and the Israeli Foreign Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israel would make those responsible pay “a heavy price”.
Israel were quick to lay the blame on the doorstep of the Lebanese group Hezbollah, but it has denied any responsibility for the attack.
Israeli sources have said that the rocket that struck the playground was Iranian-made, with only Hezbollah having access to them. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that there was “every indication” that Hezbollah had been behind the strike.
Hezbollah has said that the rocket that hit the town was from an Israeli anti-missile projectile.
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah has released conclusive evidence of their claims.
The group are consistent in claiming responsiblity for attacks, and claimed 12 separate strikes on Israeli positions on Saturday alone.
Exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel have intensified since Israel invaded Gaza last October with the stated intention of ‘wiping out’ Hamas.
However, the conflict between the two actors goes back much farther than 7 October, 2023.
Annexed by Israel in 1981, the Golan Heights – which is internationally recognised as occupied Syrian territory – was first taken by Israel following the 1967 Six-Day War.
The area is currently divided in two. Israel occupies approximately two-thirds, while Syrian government forces occupy the rest. In between sits the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).
Last month, The Journal travelled to the Golan Heights to report on the work of Irish troops stationed there as part of UNDOF, before they left Syria.
The majority of the population in the region are from the Arab-minority Druze population. In 1967, Israel offered the Druze population Israeli citizenship, but the majority of the population chose to retain their Syrian citizenship. On the Israeli side, they live alongside approximately 20,000 Israeli settlers.
Israel has insisted that the territory’s occupation is vital to its security, especially following the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011. The Israeli-occupied sector also borders southern Lebanon, which has become a flashpoint since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
Bordering the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights directly to the north is Lebanon. The southern part of the country is the stronghold of Hezbollah.
Formed in 1985 to fight the Isreali invasion of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has gone on to become one of the country’s strongest political entities. Its political wing, the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, currently holds 15 seats – 12% – in the Lebanese parliament as part fo the 8 March Alliance, and holds the positions of Minister for Public Works and Minster for Labour.
Outside of Lebanon, the group has been declared as a terrorist organisation by the European Union, United States, and a number of Arab states. Depending on the state, the designation has been extended to either just the groups armed wing – the Jihad Council – or the organisation as a whole.
The group forms part of what is called the “Axis of Resistance”, an informal Iranian-led alliance, which also includes the Houthi movement in Yemen, the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, and Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) in Palestine.
Hezbollah also operates a full civilian administration in the areas under its control, including health and education ministries.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged regular attacks since Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. A particular flashpoint has been the Shebaa Farms region, occupied by Israel, which Lebanon – and Hezbollah – considers to be occupied Lebanese territory.
The largest conflict before the current one was the 2006 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, in response to the abduction by Hezbollah of two Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) personnel. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was expanded to take up peacekeeping duties following a ceasefire.
There are currently 340 Defence Forces personnel deployed as part of UNIFIL.
Following Israel’s invasion of Gaza in October 2023, Hezbollah increased the intensity of its attacks, in what it said was support for Hamas’ resistance to the invasion.
Earlier this month, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, said that the group would abide by any ceasefire deal agreed to by Hamas, saying that Hamas negotiated on behalf of “the whole Axis of Resistance”.
“If a ceasefire is reached, and we all hope for that, our front will cease fire without any discussion.
“That is a commitment, because it is a support front and we have been clear about this from the start,” he said while speaking at a commemoration for a Hezbollah commander.
The escalation between Hezbollah and Israel has fueled concern that the conflict in Gaza could expand into a broader regional conflict, which could have devastating consequences.
Following Israel’s declaration that they would retaliate against Hezbollah for the attack in Madjal Shams, Iran warned that attacks in Lebanon could have “unforeseen consequences”.
While a ground conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is a worry, the real concern is that a larger conflict will break out with Iran.
On 1 April, an Isreali strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killed seven people, including eight members of the Iranian Revolutionery Guards Corps.
In response, Iran launched an unprecedented attack against Israel, launching more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Israel claimed that most of these were intercepted. The attack was the first time that Israel had been attacked by a national miltary since 1991.
Israel’s response was limited, though they did not confirm or deny that explosions in the Iranian province of Isfahan were caused by the IDF.
However, Itmar Ben Gvir, Israel’s National Security Minister, wrote “Scarecrow!” on X, meaning ‘feeble’ in Hebrew slang, a suggestion Israel was behind the blasts but that its action was weak. He was roundly criticised for jeopardising national security by others in the government.
Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, has been a vocal proponent of a number of extreme policies in Gaza, including the mass deportation of Palestinians in Gaza, and their replacement by Jewish settlers.
The international community has been quick to call for de-ecalation since the attack on Madjal Shams.
Antonio Gutteres, Secretary General of the United Nations, called on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint”.
Taoiseach Simon Harris called the attack “despicable”, and called for “all involved to de-escalate tensions to prevent any further bloodshed and loss of innocent lives”.
Tánaiste Mícheál Martin struck a similar tone, saying he was “horrified” by the attack and urged all parties to de-escalate.
The foreign ministers of the UK, Germany, and the US have also urged for restraint, and for Hezbollah to cease attacks into Israel.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the United States, France and others were trying to contain the escalation.
“Israel will escalate in a limited way and Hezbollah will respond in a limited way. These are the assurances we’ve received,” he said.
Hezbollah has evacuated some of its positions in southern Lebanon ahead of an expected Israeli response.
A number of airlines have announced that they will be suspending flights to Lebanon. Air France, Transavia, and Lufthansa have all suspended services as a result of the “security situation”.
So far, Israel has not indicated what their response to the strike on Madjal Shams will be, and based on previous form, it is unlikely to give clear confirmation.
However, the country’s Foreign Ministry said that ”Israel will exercise its right and duty to act in self-defence and will respond to the massacre”, saying that Hezbollah had “crossed all red lines”.
The Israeli government has “authorised the prime minister and the defence minister to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the Hezbollah terrorist organisation.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned early from a trip to the United States, and said that ”Hezbollah will pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not paid before”.
With reporting from © AFP 2024.
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