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WITH FRONTLINE MEDICAL professionals considering their options after the government’s pay deal with gardaí, high-profile nursing union leader Liam Doran appeared on Claire Byrne Live earlier this week.
The General Secretary of the INMO (Irish Nurses and Midwives’ Organisation) firmly defended his members’ record over the past decade or so, in a robust exchange with John Moran, former Secretary General of the Department of Finance.
Doran made a series of factual claims about the number of patients on trolleys, the number of hospital admissions, and nurses’ pay, over the past several years.
We’ve done a FactCheck roundup of five of his claims, and will be giving each a verdict, before tallying them at the end. For an explanation of what each verdict means, check out our Reader’s Guide.
(Send your FactCheck requests to factcheck@thejournal.ie, tweet @TJ_FactCheck, or send us a DM).
What was said:
You can watch an excerpt of Liam Doran’s claims in the video below, or watch the episode in full, here.
Claim 1: The previous government cut the number of nurses and midwives by 13.5%
Verdict: FALSE
Your policies, when you were in high office, cut the workforce by 13.5%.
A couple of notes here. John Moran was Secretary General of the Department of Finance from March 2011 until August 2014.
However, it’s unclear whether Doran’s claims are directed toward John Moran personally, or against the previous Fine Gael/Labour government as a whole.
FactCheck attempted to clarify this with Liam Doran, but did not receive a response to that particular question.
The Facts
In response to FactCheck’s request for evidence, Liam Doran claimed that between 2008 and 2016, the number of nurses and midwives has fallen from 39,000 (in 2008) to 35,250 now.
According to HSE data, the most recent figure for nurses and midwives in the public health service is 35,534, as of September (pg 12).
(Note: all these staffing figures refer to WTE – “whole time equivalent” staff).
Doran did not specify which months he was referring to, but for the sake of fair comparison, let’s take the same month (September) in 2008 (pg 104).
The number of nurses and midwives then was 37,898. That’s a decline of 6.2%.
However, Doran’s claim is inconsistent with his evidence, since the claim was levelled at the government John Moran served, which only took office in 2011.
In September 2011, the number of nurses and midwives was 35,993 (pg 19), which means there has been a fall of 1.3% since then.
The number of nurses and midwives since 2008 and 2011 has fallen. But not nearly to the extent claimed by Liam Doran (13.5%). So the claim is FALSE whatever way you look at it.
As explained in our Reader’s Guide, this means “The claim is inaccurate”.
Taking into account the fact that, on Claire Byrne Live, Doran addressed the claim to the previous government (which started in March 2011 and ended in February 2016), the claim is also FALSE.
This is because, the number of nurses and midwives in March 2011 was 36,782 (pg 19), and in February 2016 it was 35,845 (pg 83). That’s a decline of 2.6%. Not 13.5%.
Claim 2: Activity levels in the health service are up by 5-6% per annum Verdict: Half TRUE
RollingNews.ie
RollingNews.ie
The health service has gone up by 5-6% per annum in terms of activity levels.
The Facts
In his response to FactCheck, Liam Doran clarified that by “activity levels” he was referring specifically to attendances at emergency departments in 2016.
(“The number of attendances at Emergency Departments has increased by 5.3% this year alone”).
This is just one very specific measure of activity in Irish hospitals, but let’s take a look at it.
So far this year (up to July), there have been 639,178 new emergency department attendances (pg 3). By July 2015, there had been 639,184 (pg 34).
Year-on-year, that’s actually a decrease of six attendances, or 0.001%.
If Doran was comparing July 2015 (91,593) with July 2016 (96,352 – pg 28), that’s an increase of 5.2%.
However, as the year-to-date figures show, one month’s attendances are often not representative of the broader trend in the year.
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We rate this claim Half-TRUE. As our Reader’s Guide explains, this means:
“There are elements of truth in the claim, but also elements of falsehood. Or, the best available evidence is evenly weighted in support of, and against, the claim”.
Claim 3: The number of hospital admissions is now at its highest ever level Verdict: Mostly TRUE
Highest number of admissions ever.
The Facts
RollingNews.ie
RollingNews.ie
Unfortunately, and despite our request, Liam Doran did not offer specifics as to which kind of admissions he was referring to.
Unfortunately, HSE monthly performance reports only go back as far as 2009, so that’s our starting point, and certain admissions measures (like emergency admissions) were not counted in previous years, or are no longer counted.
The HSE also frequently introduces new accounting models and KPIs (“key performance indicators”), which makes HSE data notoriously difficult to compare across years.
Nonetheless, we’ve attempted to compare year-to-date figures for July 2016 (the most recent available) with year-to-date figures for July from previous years (unless otherwise stated).
Up to July 2016, there have been 796,498 emergency presentations. This is the highest number we could find on record.
Up to July 2016, there have been 639,178 new emergency department attendances. During the same period last year, that number was 639,184 – very very slightly higher.
Up to July 2016, there have been 1,945,704 outpatient attendances. During the same period in 2009, there were 1,986,299, and in 2010 there were 2,077,684. Both higher.
Up to June 2016, there have been 320,210 inpatient discharges. This is the highest number we could find on record
Up to June 2016, there have been 526,844 day case discharges. This is the highest number we could find on record.
(Note: we also analysed these numbers after adjusting for population, but it did not make a difference to the years in which various measures were higher or lower than this year).
So, in three out of five admissions categories, this year so far does have the highest numbers. And in another, it effectively has the joint-highest on record. We rate the claim Mostly TRUE.
As our Reader’s Guide explains, this means: “The claim is close to accurate, but is missing significant details or context. Or, the best available evidence weighs in favour of the claim”.
Claim 4: The previous government cut the pay of graduate nurses by 39% Verdict: FALSE
Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie
Sam Boal / RollingNews.ie / RollingNews.ie
You cut the pay of young graduate nurses by 39%.
Again, Doran’s claim was directed towards John Moran, in studio, but we are interpreting it as an allegation against the previous Fine Gael-Labour government, which Moran served.
And again, we must point out that Moran did not serve that government for its full duration, leaving in August 2014.
The Facts
In his response, Liam Doran outlined the claim as follows:
7% pension levy – 2009
7% salary cut – 2011
10% new entry cut – 2011
Further 15% cut (graduate nurse scheme) – 2013
Although, unfortunately, Doran did not provide further detail or sources, there are a couple of very obvious problems with this, which render the claim FALSE:
The introduction of the pension levy (on average 7%) happened in 2009, before the lifetime of the last government
The 10% cut for new entrants to the public service was agreed by the Fianna Fáil-led government in December 2010, and implemented in January 2011, before the Fine Gael-Labour government entered office
We rate the claim FALSE.
Claim 5: Between 2008 and 2016, the number of people on hospital trolleys has increased by 80% Verdict: Mostly FALSE
Between 2008 and 2016, the number of people on trolleys has gone up by 80%.
In his response, Doran clarified that he was actually referring to 2007-2016, not 2008-2016. But let’s take a look at both periods, for the sake of completeness.
Doran presented figures for January-October 2007, as compared with January-October 2016, taken from the INMO’s Trolley and Ward count.
A crucial piece of information here is that the INMO only began counting the number of patients on wards (as well as trolleys) in March 2013.
So comparing figures from 2016 with 2007 or 2008 is misleading – they are not like-for-like numbers.
However, FactCheck went back through the data in 2016 so far to separate out the trolley count from the ward count. Here’s what we found (Spreadsheet download).
Between January-October 2007 (42,105) and January-October 2016 (58,511), there was a 39% increase in the number of patients on trolleys.
When we add ward numbers for 2016, that increase was 81.5%.
However, as we’ve explained, 2016 figures (which include both trolleys and wards) should not be compared directly with 2007 figures (which include only trolleys).
So the claim, as clarified in Liam Doran’s response, is Mostly FALSE.
As our Reader’s Guide explains, this means “There is an element of truth in the claim, but it is missing critical details or context”.
Even though he reasonably accurately cites the figure of 80% (in truth, 81.5%), this is based on an unfair comparison.
Looking at the claim as stated on Claire Byrne Live:
Between January and the first 15 days of November 2008 (53,185) and January and the first 15 days of November 2016 (63,347), there was a 19.1% increase in the number of patients on trolleys.
When we add ward numbers for 2016, that increase was 55.4%.
TheJournal.ie’s FactCheck is a signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles. You can read it here.
For information on how FactCheck works, what the verdicts mean, and how you can take part, check out our Reader’s Guide here.
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@Chop Chop: he’s an EU head of state, just like the 25 others that will be on this call. Just because you consider him a plank, doesn’t mean that his peers do also
@Kevin Kerr: his peers have no choice but to deal with him because the irish people voted for him to be our prime minister. I don’t pretend to know how that could have happened but I’m fairly sure he is not on the call because of any input he may have. We are and have been for a long time the whipping boys of Europe.
Why?. So the EU can spend billions rebuilding a country it had no interest in before it was invaded?. The country was corrupt as the come pre the war so no it doesn’t deserve EU membership.
@Joe Willis: Clowns like you are just emboldened by Dumps compulsion to lie and spread misinformation.. Trying to normalise BS . The financial things you cite about him and his parents have been debunked several times now.. but I would challenge you to produce your sources, or stop peddling lies. As for your sad attempt at a history lesson..more crap you licked off your screen while down some rabbit hole on X no doubt..
@Brian: They have a property in Israel, and one on the coast of Egypt in the wealthy area of El Gouna. Egyptian journalist Mohammed Al-Alawi has the documents shown that the villa worth 4.8 million was purchased in Zelenskyys mothers name. He also reported that Many top Ukrainian officials have purchased property in El Gouna since 2022. Mohammed was very critical of Zelenskyy and claimed that Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian bureaucrats were engaging in corruption with Ukraines humanitarian aid money. Mohammed was found dead in 2023 after being beaten to death in Hurghada. His brother, Ahmed, is convinced it was Ukrainian operatives who organised the killing.
@Chop Chop: yes they are very confused. Most of them grew up in the Soviet Union so I’m not surprised they are completely brainwashed by the communists. Even the holodomor was kept out of official public discourse until 1992.
@Joe Willis: Like yourself, it’s very simple Joe.. you need to cite sources for your claims. Foreign concept to you I’m sure.. but it’s easy enough to copy and paste a link to where you get your information from.
He should apply for a position in the Ukraine or Palestine government as well as the rest of them , they seem to know more about their issues, than their own country.
@tiobraiddroicead: Reality check today from Trump as he proposes a 25% tarrif (and rising) on cars and pharmaceutical products, with the expressed intention of forcing them back to the USA. Another flagship chips company is tethering on bankruptcy and being split up.
Our clőwns are so drunk on USA company taxes and their own personal property wealth that they have absolutely lost touch with the reality facing us.
Let them join when they meet all the conditions, also freedom of movement should not be allowed for any EU person with a serious criminal record, this can be held in the chip on your passport. One more idea Begging, Pickpocketing, Shoplifting is not looking for work
And I know its a strange concept for a FF leader cos you never shut the aul pie holes but seriously, just keep quiet and worry about things on the home front like a good leader. Also Langer if ya dont want the junket to america cancelled where u will have to puker up and kiss the orange rear end of the donald, maybe dont go against his mate vlad
He’s an embarrassment. He really thinks that he is some sort of international statesman, he’s a no mark political pygmy that’s how Martin is perceived in Brussels.
@Declan Young: The main thing is that it’s an alliance committed to democratic principles, and we do have equal representation in the Commission and Council.
Absolutely nuts, economic disaster if ukraine joined the eu, if the shoe was on the other foot ukraine would not help or fund ireland, absolute jokestop
@burrito girl: for 100% we wouldn’t get a cent of the Ukraine if it was the other way around we would be all sent packing good luck deal with your own problems
Micheál is correct.
President Zelenskyy is demonstrating incredible courage fighting a war where a second front, in the form of American disinformation spearheaded by Donald Trump, is opening up.
There is no argument against who started the war in Ukraine. You can argue NATO expansion as a root cause of heightened tensions but annexing Crimea in 2014 and sending tanks over the border to Kyiv thereafter are simply the start of the war.
@Argus Romsworth: President Zelenskyy official approval ratings are 57%. Donald Trump has claimed they are 4%. Even his supporters are head scratching now.
Has his age caught up with him?
He’s spending an awful lot of time hiding away in Florida. Maybe he’s receiving treatment for a condition?
@Argus Romsworth: you literally typed the very reason for this war, and then next sentence dismissed it.
NATO expansion is the sole reason for this war.
Annexing Crimea is the result of it not the reason for it.
@Shane Kinsella (Kinsey): if you apply similar reasoning to USA expansion in the pacific do you believe the USA was to blame for the attack on pearl harbour?
Consider the fact the USA actually expanded in the pacific. While nato didn’t expand into Ukraine.
@Argus Romsworth: zelensky has nearly no support so ya it’s 4%. Who would support a nut job dragging young men off the streets and throwing them into the meat grinder with minimal training. It’s all on video recorded by other Ukrainians from their apartments and other buildings, because if they were caught doing it you know what would happen to them.
The Journal would not allow any comments with regards to the Ukraine/Russia war for the past 3 year’s until Trump got into power and all of a sudden the comment section was open.
Their Reporters/Journalists and Editors have passed a lot of misinformation and utter bull ever since.
Time to delete this app.
I wouldn’t mind,you are not even good at it.
@martin lawlor: Eh wrong. The journal allowed comments on Ukraine/Russia for over a year and a half. It was only after the October 7th attacks and comments were closed on all articles about Israel invading Gaza did the journal start closing comments on Ukraine/ Russia..
There are strict entry rules around a country’s finances etc. Ukraine needs to go through those loops before being considered. Is Martin asking for these to be waived?
@Aidan Collins: of course she is he’s probably getting a brown envelope out of that money he’s sending over there taxpayers money being blown up literally
Who does this guy think he is in the world? He comes from a country of 5 million people, and it takes two of them to make decisions and eight of them to ho to America, for jes sake. Every other country with multiple million population has one strong leader
Absolutely ridiculous idea, it’s very sad what’s happening in Ukraine but EU membership is supposed to meet certain criteria. The war doesn’t change the fact that Ukraine is a deeply corrupt country with a questionable justice system, not to mention the economic situation. What benefit would Ukraine in the EU have for any existing members? We already have 100k of them here already, imagine how many we’d have with free movement. Ukraine should be nowhere near EU membership just because there’s a war shouldn’t change that.
@Dave Grant: I wish we had those “stringent anti-corruption laws” in Ireland, our lot could teach the Ukrainians a thing or two about conning the electorate.
The EU bureaucrats are continually scoring own goals. Free trade markets and freedom to travel are what Europeans wanted. Europeans wanted more freedom over their lives, less hurdles in everyday living, what we wanted is not what is being sold to us today. If our leaders can’t see, what looks like, the majority, don’t want or buy their new vision and turn the ship around, the EU experiment could unfortunately be another failed attempt at a once good idea. This could be the last sting of a dying wasp.
A good idea. Putin is deliberately engineering a situation in which huge swathes of people are being displaced, leading to trouble with immigration. If Ukraine join the Eu and Putin is stopped so will the flow of refugees. This should please both left and right sections of the public. if Putin is appeased and Ukraine barred then the movement of people will continue.
@Alan: appeasement doesn’t work.
Neville Chamberlain defining moment was ultimately his undoing. Well educated leaders, like those in the eu and now in the U.K. are aware of this. Unfortunately coolock says no types didn’t listen in school
@Alan: the “movement” of people can be easily stopped if the EU enforced its own border laws. Do you think if Ukraine gets EU membership tomorrow then war stops tomorrow? Because if you do you are very much mistaken.
@Ger Whelan: you can see how us and europes cooperation has halted russias aggression in its tracks. There was no appeasement. Britain was more of a force then as it is now. Similar strategies could’ve been adopted through the League of Nations to halt German aggression.
@Argus Romsworth: So sanctions would have been your solution to stopping German aggression?. Yeah because sanctions are working now aren’t they. There was no EU or NATO in 1938 to apply any of the tactics used to slow Russia against Germany.
@Ger Whelan: sanctions are not the only thing that have stopped Russia progressing in Ukraine. Ukraine defense has been bolstered with equipment, training and cold hard cash to support their military. If you digest the above you will see the league of nations mentioned. The league of nations failed due to a lack of support. Had it have been supported and then leveraged against German aggression, as Ukraine is today by us and European nations, then Germany would might not have progressed so readily. Just like the Russian war machine is today. Lessons were well learned from the mistakes of the past and are adopted successfully today to stop russias advance.
@Ger Whelan: “ There was no EU or NATO in 1938 to apply any of the tactics used to slow Russia against Germany”, I think that’s a very confused statement?
@Argus Romsworth: Ukraines defence was bolstered by equipment and training supplied by NATO. NATO didn’t exist in 1938, nor did the EU. The league of nations was a diet United nations and the United nation couldn’t stop Russia so no the league of nations couldn’t have stopped Germany. But you keep dreaming lad. The fact is less than a year later Germany steam rolled both the British and French militaries on main land Europe forcing the British into an embarrassing retreat across the channel and the surrounder of the french. Nothing chamberlain did or could have done in 1938 was going to stop Germany.
Good. This is what Ukraine wants, and they should be fully supported in realising this aim. All the naysayers are braying from a position where only geography affords them such a cynical view.. Ukraine will do far better among our European community than by being tied to the paranoid mafia dons neo Soviet Union. Slava Ukraini!
Meanwhile, US President Musk is starting his plan destabilise and ultimately end the EU. Luckily we had EU elections last year so it’ll be 4 years before he can interfere in the next EU parliament.
This should have happened a long time ago and I welcome any attempt to bring Ukraine into the European Union. After the Maidan Revolution, it was clear that the Ukrainian people would not stand for any attempts by Russia to place puppets in their government to block attempts at brokering EU aspirations and free trade deals. Mark Rutte also needs to step up to the plate and invite Ukraine into NATO in a swift manner, ideally no later than six months after they are approved for EU membership. The pro-Putin trolls on this site can’t seem to get their heads around the simple fact that Ukraine is a sovereign country. They have every right to choose their own destiny in relation to foreign affairs. We need to stop fearing Russia. They are a paper tiger and would be crushed by NATO if required.
Yep, let them join the EU, and confiscate the $300Bn of Russia’s sanctioned dough to pay for Putins damage.. they won’t need funding from the US and Orange Julius
@Darran Macken: At first I didn’t understand why it took so long for the bots to comment in bulk on the Ukraine related articles today (mostly already several hours old to even the previous evening). First I suspected it had taken that long to come up with a co-ordinated scripted response. Then I realised that things were going badly for ‘your side’ in the international and online discussion and commentary. So cue a flood of attempts to disinform in the crudest and least polished way.
The world is changing before our eyes. We are living through history being made. While it may be laudable, Ireland cannot continue to live by its old values when they are being dumped by those in power. We need new radical solutions to new radical problems.
What might have been unacceptable before — such as infringing our neutrality or admitting Ukraine to the EU — must now be reconsidered by what offers the best security for our collective future.
And time is not available to appoint committees and to dither. Unexpected events are unfolding daily while EU decision-makers react like rabbits caught in a headlight. It is now time for them to get ahead of the game, stop being caught off guard and to exert some degree of control.
So we can go to war against Russia. Brilliant idea Michael. Sure where would we be without you. And if you want more trouble just throw the bowl of weeds at The Don.
@Numinous20111:
You can sing that, two rich kids one a Gererals daughter with an army man servant on call and private fee paying schooling for young ladies. The other a thick trust fund type of hippy who’s company when folded cost the ordinary workers millions to clean up the damage.
Must have hurt Daly to have being shafted by the lefty left in the inner city in order to settle old scores with her.
@AnthonyK: No it shouldn’t. Ukraine wasn’t eligible to join the EU before it was invaded. Being invaded doesn’t mean Ukraine is suddenly eligible for EU membership. It should only get EU membership if it ever meets the requirement to join the EU.
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Match and combine data from other data sources 72 partners can use this feature
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Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 53 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 88 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 69 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
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