Live BlogLAST UPDATE | 9 Nov 2022
CONTROL OF THE US congress hangs in the balance as counting continues across the states.
Democrats showed surprising strength in the American midterm elections, defeating Republicans in several key races and defying expectations that soaring inflation and President Biden’s low approval ratings would drag the party down.
Here’s how events played out through the night and into this morning.
It will be a while – possibly weeks in Georgia – before we get the next key results so we’re closing down this liveblog and will be back with updates on the main site once there’s major news to report.
Here’s how things were looking at 11.30am Irish time.
The latest reports suggest that Senate results from Nevada, where Republican Adam Laxalt now narrowly leads incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, might not be finalised until Thursday. He’s ahead by two percent with 73 percent of the vote counted.
Laxalt is a full-scale 2020 presidential election denier.
It seems certain now that control of the Senate will not be decided today. It will take days to count all the votes in Nevada and Arizona – just like it did in the 2020 presidential election. Both races are expected to tighten as more votes are counted, meaning both are a toss-up.
Closer still is Georgia’s Senate race between Reverend Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker, which now seems likely to require a run-off, which is expected to be held on 6 December.
Wisconsin is the outlier. While it is a tight race, it’s increasingly expected that incumbent senator Ron Johnson (R) will hold on to his seat.
Since they hold the executive branch, Democrats currently have the tie-breaking vote in the Senate – meaning that they only need 50 seats to retain their current majority. Republicans, on the other hand, would need to win three of the remaining four Senate races.
While control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives remains firmly in the balance, narratives within the GOP seem to be turning against Donald Trump.
Republican candidates who have thrown their lot in with Trump’s baseless claims that the 2020 presidential election have either failed, or failed to perform in line with the more traditional GOP candidates on their state ballots.
In Georgia, Trump favourite Herschel Walker is unlikely to defeat Reverend Raphael Warnock in a neck and neck Senate contest which could go to a run-off election next month. Georgia’s Republican Governor Brian Kemp, however, romped to victory over Stacy Abrams, after positioning himself as a bulwark against Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020.
While there are still many votes to be counted in Arizona and Nevada, Trumpian Republicans Blake Masters and Adam Laxalt currently trail in the polls, as does Kari Lake, a Trump acolyte running for governor in Arizona.
Notable congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who is a proponent of the QAnon conspiracy, is also in serious danger of losing her seat in the House of Representatives after just two years in office.
Speaking on CNN, conservative commentator Scott Jennings said: “There’s a potential narrative out of this night that if you’re a discerning Republican voter trying to figure out the future, direction of this party, we once again learn that Trump is not a national winner for the Republicans.”
Trump is expected to announce his bid to retake the presidency on 15 November. There is wide speculation that he will face a challenge from Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who hammered his midterm opponent Charlie Crist by over 20 per cent, in a state that Republicans see as absolutely essential as part of any strategy to retake the presidency.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott, another potential challenger for primacy ahead of the 2024 presidential election, also swept to victory over Beto O’Rourke. All in all, it’s been an election that is more likely to energise Republican challengers than encourage a doubling down on Trump’s brand of political strategy.
In Arizona, former President Donald Trump and his chosen candidate for governor, Kari Lake, have alleged irregularities after problems with voting machines.
Officials in the most populous county of Maricopa said about 20 per cent of the 223 polling stations experienced difficulties related to printers – but that no one was denied the right to vote.
In a speech at her election night HQ she said it felt like “Groundhog Day”, according to comments reported by CNN – going on to suggest there was “incompetency” at play in the election.
With just over half of the votes counted, Lake is trailing her Democratic rival Katie Hobbs by around 55 to 45 per cent.
This isn't a campaign it's a movement. And this "party" isn't stopping until the last legal vote is counted! pic.twitter.com/IAIfQnYzOw
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 9, 2022
The top Republican in the House has expressed confidence that his party will seize the lower chamber the Democrats.
“It is clear that we are going to take the House back,” Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said.
His opposite number, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, stressed that many of the races remained too close to call and said her party’s candidates “are strongly outperforming expectations across the country”.
Pelosi would lose her position as speaker if control of the chamber went to Republicans.
GOP control of the House would likely trigger a round of investigations into President Biden and his family, while a Republican Senate takeover would hobble the president’s ability to make judicial appointments.
As yet, it remains unclear which of the two parties will take control of the Senate.
In the last few minutes one of the top election officials in the state of Georgia has said it’s likely there’ll be a runoff election there next month.
While county officials are still doing the detailed work on counting the votes, we feel it is safe to say there will be a runoff for the US Senate here in Georgia slated for December 6. #gapol pic.twitter.com/uwMF2EoDzO
— Gabriel Sterling (@GabrielSterling) November 9, 2022
Georgia is one of the remaining key races that could determine control of the Senate.
Results so far have shown Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker running an incredibly tightly-fought contestt, with the third party Libertarian candidate on a mere 2 per cent.
Walker, a former NFL star, has been running on a socially conservative, anti-abortion platform – but reports emerged during the campaign that he had allegedly paid for an abortion for a former girlfriend.
A hardcore of Ireland-based US politics watchers may have been up all night glued to John King and his famous magic wall – but if you don’t happen to fall into that category, here’s the story so far:
My colleague Rónán Duffy just published this handy piece pulling together all the high-profile winners so far.
Rónán Duffy is signing off the liveblog after a marathon overnight stint. Updates for the next while will be from Daragh Brophy and Carl Kinsella.
In the last few minutes NBC has projected that Democrat John Fetterman has defeated Republican Mehmet Oz in one of the key Senate races in Pennsylvania.
The Trump-backed GOP candidate – better known to TV viewers as Dr Oz – had been confident heading into the vote.
Fetterman suffered a stroke during the campaign and as he recovered in recent months struggled to grasp some spoken words and occasionally to access words when speaking, according to his doctors.
In a debate last month Fetterman accused his opponent of misleading voters about his record and complaining that Oz has “never let me forget” about the stroke.
He apologised preemptively for any words he might miss but added that his campaign was about “fighting for everyone in Pennsylvania that never got knocked down.”
It's official. I will be the next U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania.
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) November 9, 2022
We bet on the people of Pennsylvania - and you didn’t let us down
And I won’t let you down. Thank you.
Some of tonight’s votes on abortion, not complete results but pretty conclusive in each state that was voting to place abortion rights in state constitutions.
Michigan is leaning towards protecting abortion in its state Constitution.
California is also protecting abortion rights.
Vermont also in favour of constitutional support for abortion rights.
The Journal’s US politics columnist Larry Donnelly gives his take on the results so far, finding that Trump is hurting Republicans.
Plenty of votes still to be counted in #Midterms2022. But based on what we’re seeing, if Republicans do again rally around Trump, Democrats have good reason to be optimistic about 2024. I suspect that even his announcement tease yesterday gave some voters pause today.
— Larry Donnelly (@LarryPDonnelly) November 9, 2022
Decision Desk HQ projects Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R) wins re-election to the U.S. House in Georgia's 14th Congressional District.#DecisionMade: 7:00pm EST
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 9, 2022
Watch our livestream: https://t.co/hXcFoE11UX pic.twitter.com/NcoFu8mfWy
Just in case there was any doubt, Marjorie Taylor-Greene has been re-elected as a Congresswoman for Georgia 14th District.
Taylor-Greene has expressed support for QAnon conspiracy theories, which focus on the fictional belief that top Democrats are involved in child sex trafficking, Satan worship and cannibalism.
MTG, as she’s known among supporters, spoke at a white nationalist conference this year and has liked social media posts about killing Democrats.
Delaware Senator Chris Coons, who is a good friend of Joe Biden is sounding cautiously pleased with the Democrats night’s work.
By historic standards, we’re having a strong night. Typically a president in his first midterms, loses 27 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate. And from everything I’m seeing so far, close colleagues of mine friends, incumbent Democrats are having a strong night.
Let’s take just two quick examples, Michael Bennett in Colorado, Maggie Hasson in New Hampshire, both of them their last election six years ago,we’re very close. Michael Bennett is going to win by more than a dozen points. Maggie Hassan six years ago won by 1,000 votes, tonight by more than 50,000 votes.
Kathy Hochul has been elected as the Governor of New York for the Democratic party.
It will be Hochul’s first full term as New York Governor as she only took over the reins last year when Andrew Cuomo was forced to amid allegations of sexual harassment.
Hochul is an Irish-American whose paternal grandparents emigrated from Co Kerry over 100 years ago.
Is that a smile on the face of the President….
Just got off the phone with some of tonight’s winners — including some folks I saw on the road this year.
— President Biden (@POTUS) November 9, 2022
If you’re in line to vote, remember to stay in line! pic.twitter.com/43CF4rSFrP
BREAKING: Republican JD Vance wins U.S. Senate race in Ohio, NBC News projects. https://t.co/VRwChwBMN8 pic.twitter.com/Hy7QUYLVew
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 9, 2022
As we say that, some good news for Republicans, and Trump Republicans to be exact.
JD Vance has bested Democratic lawmaker Tim Ryan in the race for Ohio’s open Senate seat.
The win for the Republicans does not represent a gain of a seat in the 100-member Senate, as the contenders were vying to replace retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman.
It is, however, an important win for the Republicans if they want to take the Senate.
One of those wins might come in New Hampshire, where Democrat Maggie Hassan appears to have a clear lead over MAGA-favourite Don Bolduc.
Bolduc is a Trump-endorsed Republican who was previously described as a “conspiracy theory extremist” by the State’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu.
The state is a clear example where Trump pushed a far-right candidate to the fore when a more moderate Republican might have stood a better chance.
“This is going to be on Trump, because in a non-Trump world someone like Governor Sununu or someone who has a much better chance runs instead of Bolduc,” ABC’s political director Rick Klein said tonight.
“The Republican establishment cut Don Bolduc loose, MAGA tried to save him and it doesn’t appear like their efforts are going to be enough. This will be seen as a Republican possibility that was left on the table. ”
As the night goes on, there are tentative signs that the Democrats might be a little bit more upbeat than they what they may have been.
One of the theories in advance of today was that while there may be a swing to Republicans, it won’t be a wave or anything like that sort.
A couple of wins have started make it look like this might be the case and White House press secretary Jen Psaki is starting to sound a little confident.
This night is not turning out exactly like the red wavers predicted so far
— Jen Psaki (@jrpsaki) November 9, 2022
here's Mastriano on OAN talking about the "big victory" he'd be celebrating in "a couple hours" right as his race was called pic.twitter.com/9PzEBeS6SF
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 9, 2022
‘Siri, define delusion?’
Just as Republican Pennsylvania governor candidate Doug Mastriano was on far-right news channel One America News Network claiming that he’d be celebrating a “big victory” in a few hours, his race against Josh Shapiro was called in favour of the Democrat.
Shapiro was a big favourite in the race and is a rising star of the Democrat party, he’s even been tipped as a potential future presidential candidate.
Mastriano is a State Senator who has attended Q-Anon supporting conferences, I went along to one of this events in Pennsylvania last month to find out what his supporters see in him.
BREAKING: Democrat Josh Shapiro wins Pennsylvania governor's race, NBC News projects. https://t.co/IAT1oNcXPg pic.twitter.com/osRepr5Vr0
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 9, 2022
Some potential good news for Democrats.
ABC News is speaking about the idea of ‘split tickets’ and how big support for the Senate candidate in a state does not always translate to the Gubernatorial candidate, and vice versa.
This appears to be playing out clearly in the state of Ohio, one of the all-important battleground states that could decide the balance of power in the Senate.
In Ohio, the sitting Republican Governor Mike DeWine is looking safe for re-election but his numbers are not being matched in support for the Republican Senate candidate JD Vance.
Vance is the Trump-endorsed writer of memoir Hillbilly Elegy and he’s locked in a much closer battle with Democrat Tim Ryan.
Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, one of the big points in the Fetterman-Oz battle has been Democrat claims that Oz simply isn’t from the state and shouldn’t be running there.
According to an exit poll, voters seem to agree with a healthy majority saying that Republican Oz hasn’t lived in the state for long enough.
Referendums on abortion access were being voted on in five states as part of the midterms: California, Michigan, Vermont, Kentucky and Montana.
In California, Michigan and Vermont, proposed ballot measures would enshrine a right to abortion in the state constitution.
In Kentucky, voters are being asked the reverse — to expressly state that the state constitution does not guarantee the right to abortion.
In Montana, a ballot measure would declare that “infants born alive, including infants born alive after an abortion, are legal persons” and require health care providers to deliver appropriate medical care and treatment.
In Kansas back in August voters in the conservative midwestern state resoundingly backed access to abortion.
So far, this Kansas pattern is being repeated, with early results indicating that the anti-abortion measure in Kentucky looks set to be defeated.
64% of Kentucky statewide in on anti-abortion Amendment 2:
— Joe Sonka 😐 (@joesonka) November 9, 2022
Yes: 45%
No: 55%
Most of remaining counties rural, will still tighten.
Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders has been elected Arkansas governor, becoming the state’s first female governor. The former Trump White House press secretary defeated Democrat Chris Jones. https://t.co/A2W9uDMHqn pic.twitter.com/AKjdDIvir0
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 9, 2022
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, that’s a throwback!
Trump’s former White House press secretary has been elected as Governor of Arkansas, a position formerly held by Bill Clinton and her own father Mike Huckabee.
Sanders becomes first female governor of the state having shattered fundraising records with her campaign, which focused primarily on national issues.
Trump had endorsed Sanders’ candidacy but her history in the state goes back much further than her former boss.
Sanders stopped short of agreeing with Trump that his loss in the 2020 presidential election was stolen, though she’s said the former president has the right to make that claim, AP reports.
The US state of Massachusetts has elected Democrat Maura Healey as America’s first openly lesbian governor, TV networks said.
Healey, 51, flipped the seat from the Republicans, comfortably defeating opponent Geoff Diehl.
LGBTQ+ rights group the Human Rights Campaign hailed Healey’s historic victory.
“Massachusetts embraced a platform of equality and inclusion by electing a pro-equality champion,” the organisation said in a statement.
25-year-old Florida Democrat Maxwell Frost became the first Gen Z member-elect of Congress when he won a seat in the US House of Representatives.
As a candidate in a district that leans solidly Democratic, Frost’s victory over Republican Calvin Wimbish was called by US networks shortly after polls closed.
WE WON!!!! History was made tonight. We made history for Floridians, for Gen Z, and for everyone who believes we deserve a better future. I am beyond thankful for the opportunity to represent my home in the United States Congress. #FL10
— Maxwell Alejandro Frost (@MaxwellFrostFL) November 9, 2022
As a member of the generation comprising today’s teens and young adults, the African-American Frost, raised by an adoptive mother of Cuban descent, would stand out among the white faces and gray hair in the lower House, where the average age is a seasoned 58.
“We need that representation in Congress so that way we have a government that looks like the country and knows what the country is going through,” the candidate told AFP in Orlando last month on the campaign trail.
For Republicans, there’s some very good news coming out of Florida. Ron DeSantis was always going to be re-elected as Governor and ditto Marco Rubio as Senator.
CNN has already projected that both of them will be re-elected.
Some of the early numbers coming out of Miami are pretty crazy good for them though. A city which has been Democratic voting and is a big population centre.
For context, in the past two presidential elections Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade county by 30 points in 2016 and Biden won it by 7 points.
As it stands at the moment, DeSantis is about to turn it into a Republican voting city.
DeSantis is currently up 8 points in Miami-Dade County with 60% in.
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 9, 2022
In 2018, he lost it by 20 points. Unreal.
Election night is always a good time to get some good data on presidential approval ratings as well.
Based on CNN’s Exit Poll, Biden has an approval rating of 46%, with 54% disapproving of the job he’s doing.
Obviously not happy reading for Biden but it’s worth pointing out too that it’s better than the opinion voters have of Donald Trump.
As has been pointed out this evening, voters tend to have a more favourable view of presidents after they’ve left office but in the case of Trump his approval ratings have actually gone down.
Trump may be the favourite to win the Republican nomination if he does run for the White House but he has a whole plane-load of baggage to take with him if he does.
PA exit polls:
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 8, 2022
Biden: 46 approve, 54 disapprove
Trump: 40 percent hold favorable views. 58 percent unfavorable
52 percent said Biden not a factor in their vote
57 percent said Trump was not a factor
Just to turn to the House of Representatives for a second, with 435 seats in the House either party needs 218 to have a majority.
The above graphic shows how it stands going into tonight.
Neutral analysts expect a gain for House Republicans of 15 to 25 seats — enough to win back control of the chamber comfortably.
The more things change, the more they stay the same, etc etc.
CNN’s John King is already up and running with his magic wall and is making some big extrapolations. Most places only have about 1% of the votes counted but we can a few things from that sample.
The general take away as King goes through the various Florida counties is that, while each county is going the same way as it did in the 2020 election, the Democrats are running maybe 1-2 percentage points down on what they were two years ago.
It’s an early trend but it could turn out to be an important one.
Unsurprisingly, former president Donald Trump has already inserted himself into the narrative tonight but this time it’s for a broadside on a party colleague.
As Trump continuously teases another White House run in 2024, his biggest rival for the Republican nomination is likely to be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis is a similar character to Trump and emerged as a national figure during Trump’s presidency. He has built his profile around culture war issues and in many ways has been seen as Trump’s heir apparent.
Trump has been trying to convince him not to run, however, and this evening suggested he has some dirt on DeSantis should be choose to do so.
Trump on DeSantis: “If he runs, he runs,” Mr. Trump said. But he added: “If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.” https://t.co/DGpffu0uAj
— Nicole Sganga (@NicoleSganga) November 8, 2022
Some of those exit poll results we talked about earlier.
NBC’s exit poll here doesn’t give an outline of who voters voted for but it does show what issue was most important for them.
It may give as sense as to the type of voters who went to the polls today in big numbers.
According to this poll, inflation was the biggest issue for voters. This isn’t a surprise as it’s the issue that’s being talked about everywhere from Ireland to the States.
Interestingly though, pre-election polling over the past few weeks had suggested that the abortion issue had fallen down people’s list of priorities.
Not so according to this exit poll, which has it as the second most-important issue.
Americans name inflation and abortion as the most important issues driving their vote, according to @NBCNews Exit Poll. https://t.co/9osNWKEBIA pic.twitter.com/NUl6ss7r1H
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 8, 2022
We need all hands on deck to elect Democrats. Head to https://t.co/5a2tKE0cix to help call voters in critical battleground states.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) November 8, 2022
You can make the difference in the outcome of this election.
As a mid-term president with less-than-stellar approval ratings, Biden’s presence on the campaign trail has been less visible than some of his predecessors.
In the past few days though he’s been out in several Pennsylvania cities and in a tweet today said that Democrats needed “all hands on deck”.
Here he is after getting off Marine One at thee White House yesterday evening.
Here’s one I wrote earlier, the big midterms preview should give you all you need to know about what to look out for tonight.
This include the battleground Senate seats that will decide who controls the Senate.
Those tight races to look out for are:
If you’re here watching an election liveblog at near midnight I’m going to assume you know a fair bit about the midterms – but just to give a quick state of play.
The midterms are about electing poliicians to the Senate and the House of Representaives. The Senate has 100 members and the House has 435.
The Democrats have a majority of one in the Senate about 30 in the House.
With midterm elections always tough for the party with the incumbent president, that’s likely to change when the votes are counted.
Republicans are heavy favourites to win control of the House but the Senate will be a much closer run thing.
Here’s what the Senate currently looks like before today’s voting, it’s literally 50-50 with the casting vote of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris giving her party the balance of power by the smallest margin.
Hello there, Rónán Duffy here to take you through the night or at least as long as we can stay awake.
The first polls are closing and we’re likely to have the first results in about two hours, that’s 1am out time.
Some of the US networks are releasing details of their exit polls that might give some indication of what those results will be so I’ll make sure to bring that to you as well.
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