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The ‘blue wave’: No sweeping win for Democrats; White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders dismissed it as a blue “ripple”
One each: The Democrats have taken the House, the Republicans have kept control of the Senate, and are on track to increase their majority.
The Texan race for the Senate: In a shock for many, Beto O’Rourke ran a very close race against former presidential hopeful Ted Cruz.
A win for diversity: The first two Muslim congresswomen; the youngest congresswoman ever elected; the first openly gay governor of the US and Ayanna Pressley has become Massachusetts’ first black congresswoman.
And that’s quite a significant part of this election: turnout.
Historically, turnout is much lower during the midterms than in presidential elections. In the 2014 midterms, just 36.4% of Americans registered to vote used it – that’s the lowest turnout since the end of the second World War.
It was 40% in the 2010 midterms, and 58.1% in the 2016 US election.
Also, traditionally, Republicans are more likely to vote in the midterms – meaning if we see a turnout higher than the mid-40s, that indicates Democrats are turning up to vote.
So what’s all the fuss about anyway? Why do we in Ireland care about the results in the US? Three reasons:
If the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives (the US Dáil), it will make passing legislation much more difficult for Trump.
If the Democrats take control of the Senate, it means they’ll have the power to black the appointments of Supreme Court judges, and control impeachment outcomes.
If Republicans lose their majority in the House, it will be the first time voters show their lack of confidence in him – how will he react to that?
It’s also going to be the greatest barometer on whether people are happy with Donald Trump as their president.
Evan Vucci
Evan Vucci
6 Nov 2018
10:41PM
If you’re not waiting up all night, here are a couple of key contests to watch out for if you happen to wake up in the middle of the night:
The Texas Senate: Republican Ted Cruz vs Democrat Beto O’Rourke
Fourth-generation Irishman Beto O’Rourke has built up a quite a following and is seen as the first proper contender to dethrone Cruz from his stint in a Republican stronghold. The last time a Dem won a seat in the senate in Texas was in the 1980s.
At the moment, Cruz has a seven point lead and is leading consistently. Turnout will be crucial here.
The Nevada Senate – Republican Dean Heller vs Democrat Jacky Rosen
Heller was described recently by The Guardian newspaper as “the most vulnerable Republican incumbent”. He once hosted a campaign rally at a Vegas gun store.
His opponent Jacky Rosen is a first term congresswoman who is hoping to capitalise on the strong vote for Hillary Clinton in the State two years ago. There’s only two points between them; just 20,000 votes separated Clinton and Trump in 2016.
As we edge into Oscar awards season territory, here’s a script we could sink our teeth into: Alaska’s two Midterm races, for governor and their one House seat, are tied together by “a plane crash, a knife-wielding congressman, and a common theme: women having unprecedented impacts on every race”.
CSPAN, the US version of Oireachtas TV, has given us these handy graphics of when the polls close. In short, we’ll get the first results from the east of the country, and the last from the west.
Quick recap on the US Congress before results start pouring in:
The House of Representatives has 435 seats, and the Republicans have the majority currently. The Democrats need to retain the 193 seats they have, and win an extra 24 seats to overturn that. They’re expected to get an increase between 30-35 seats.
The Senate has 100 seats, but there are just 35 seats available in this Midterm, and 26 of those were held by the Dems, with 9 held by Republicans.
Another bit of info for ya: 10 of those 26 Democratic seats are in states that Trump won in 2016 election. So the Republicans are expected to hold their majority in the Senate – and possibly increase it by two seats.
Fianna Fáil Senator Lorraine Clifford-Lee has asked when we’ll know if the Democrat candidate running for a Senate seat in Texas, Beto O’Rourke, has won.
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Polls close in Texas at 8pm, or 1am Irish time. If Republican Ted Cruz keeps the lead he’s had in the polls, we won’t be waiting long for a result.
As we wait for the first few results to pour in, and what they might mean, here’s an interesting insight into what is influencing people’s vote: a significant 1-in-6 voters say this is the first midterm election they’re voting in.
There’s reportedly been an historic turnout for a midterm election in the early ballot votes – let’s see if that translates in how people voted today.
Early exit polls: Two-thirds of voters say their vote in today’s election is about Donald Trump; a significant 1-in-6 voters say this is the first midterm election they’re voting in
Another interesting one on tunrout: this time in a crucial swing state, Ohio.
There’s reportedly been a massive increase in voter turnout in a state where Donald Trump secured 51% of the vote in 2016, winning it comfortably (Clinton got 43%).
Hamilton County, Ohio (Cincinnati) -- 320k votes cast so far. Forget comparing to midterm -- that's only 90k votes short of the 2016 PRESIDENTIAL vote. And polls are still open for another 45 minutes, and those standing in line will also get to vote.
Couple of interesting Exit poll results: this one from MSNBC shows that healthcare, the campaign issue championed by Democrats during the Midterms, was most important.
Although based on the other options, it’s possible that the Republican vote was split between the other three issues.
Meanwhile, CNN’s exit poll indicates that 77% of Americans believe their country is more divided than ever.
Our Acting Editor Christine Bohan has an update for us from Texas:
Polls close shortly here in Texas, with all eyes on whether Beto O’Rourke can defeat incumbent Republican Ted Cruz in the Senate race. Polls suggest not – it seems more likely that Cruz will win out. But Republicans and Democrats will be paying a lot of attention to the race, and how O’Rourke galvanised high levels of support with his strongly left-wing agenda.
Even if he doesn’t win tonight, O’Rourke has shown the levels of support a progressive candidate can get in a red state – he raised an unprecedented $38 million in donations in the last quarter, and banners and t-shirts with his name on them can be seen everywhere across cities like Austin – which raises the questions: what will his next move be after this? And will this inspire more progressive politicians to follow his lead?
CNN reporting that 6 senators including Elizabeth Warren, have been elected to the US Senate.
BREAKING: Democrats will keep Senate seats in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio and Rhode Island, CNN projects. • Chris Murphy • Tom Carper • Ben Cardin • Elizabeth Warren • Sherrod Brown • Sheldon Whitehousehttps://t.co/I14TJxOjKc#CNNElectionpic.twitter.com/tMJyznVr6m
Ayanna Pressley will become the first black woman to represent Massachusetts in Congress. She made headlines after beating a 10-term incumbent Michael Capuano, who was heavily backed by the political establishment.
Nailbiter update: the O’Rourke/Cruz, Gillum/DeSantis and Nelson/Scott races are still far too close to call, with less than a percentage point between the candidates in each of those three races.
Back to Indiana, one of the first states to close its polls, Greg Pence, the older brother of US Vice President Mike Pence, has won a seat in the House of Representatives.
The 61-year-old is a businessman and military veteran.
Congrats to my brother @GregPenceIN on being elected to serve in the US Congress. Greg served our country admirably in uniform & will do the same in Washington DC. I am so proud & look forward to working w/ him to advance @RealDonaldTrump’s agenda for America & the Hoosier State!
A tip just in from a reader in Florida: Watch Miami and Broward in Florida, where there are big leads for both Governor and Senator, with 75% and 50% of votes counted.
If Dems win control of the Senate that’s where it comes from now, we’re told.
.. the problem was apparently due to not plugging the voting machines in.
NBC News has confirmed that the issue at Anderson Livsey Elementary in Snellville, GA was indeed a lack of power cords. Gwinnett County Director of Communications Joe Sorenson tells @NBCNews “the machine was not supplied power and was running on battery & the battery ran out” 🤔 https://t.co/YFa45nihXs
So with the results so far – has either party made gains in the House or Senate?
The Democrats have picked up two seats in the House; Republicans have made one gain in the Senate – GOP candidate Mike Braun has just taken a Senate seat in Indiana.
Democrat Rashida Tlaib has become the first Muslim and first Palestinian American congresswoman. She’s been elected to the House.
BREAKING: Rashida Tlaib is the first Palestinian-American woman and the first Muslim woman ever elected to U.S. Congress. #Midterms2018pic.twitter.com/EEOuMTMibE
If you think predicting this US election is too complicated – you’re not alone.
Speaking to MSNBC, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill said “I’m gonna be really honest with you – I have no flipping idea what’s going to happen tonight.”
7 Nov 2018
2:36AM
“We have a president of the United States who is a pathological liar,” Bernie Sanders says during his victory speech, after reclaiming his Senate seat in Vermont.
White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders has said that there isn’t a “blue wave” as predicted, but more of a “ripple”.
She says that the states that Trump visited, the candidates are doing well.
Responding to those comments, a former advisor to Hillary Clinton said that Democrats didn’t get the “slam dunk” they wanted, and said it was looking “pretty bad” after they lost a number of governorships.
Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen has lost to Republican Marsha Blackburn in a race for the Senate in Tennessee. Taylor Swift previously endorsed Bredesen.
Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. UPI / PA Images
UPI / PA Images / PA Images
Another first for Congress: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been elected to the House in New York, making her the youngest woman in Congress at 29.
In June, she made headlines after she beat an establishment congressman Joe Crowley, seen as a potential standardbearer, to make it on the electoral ticket.
Ocasio-Cortez is a Bronx-born Latina activist and Bernie Sanders volunteer who has never held elected office before now.
Historic win in West Virginia, according to Joe Manchin:
You made history tonight…West Virginia made history tonight…Nobody in the United States has ever won in a state that the president in the previous election won by 42 points. The opposite party wins.
.@JoeManchinWV: "You made history tonight...West Virginia made history tonight…Nobody in the United States has ever won in a state that the president in the previous election won by 42 points. The opposite party wins." #ElectionNight#WVSenpic.twitter.com/yRnChbnx62
Remember earlier when we said Rashida Tlaib had become the first Muslim congresswoman?
She’ll have to make some room on that podium, as Democrat Ilhan Omar has a huge majority over her opponent in Minnesota; at 78.8%, she’s expected to win.
Whatever about the parties, it’s a good day for diversity in Congress.
7 Nov 2018
3:18AM
So the Democratic dream in Texas is over: Media reports confirm that Ted Cruz has retained his Senate seat.
A panelist on Sky News said that the razor-thin gap between the two candidates was more reflective of the two personalities involved, than a shift in the red state towards the Democrats.
Meanwhile, away from the personalities and parties, there are other important votes happening, reports AP:
Florida voters approved a ballot measure that will enable more than 1 million ex-felons to regain their voting rights.
North Dakota and Michigan had a chance to legalise the recreational use of marijuana, a step already taken by nine other states.
In Arkansas and Missouri, voters decided on increasing the minimum wage: the measure would raise the wage from $8.50 an hour to $11 by 2021 in the former; and gradually raising the $7.85 minimum wage to $12 an hour in the latter.
In Arizona and Nevada, voters considered measures requiring that 50% of electricity come from renewable sources by 2030.
Here it is: The Democrats have taken back the House of Representatives, while the Republicans have retained the Senate and look like they will increase their majority here.
“The House of Representatives, especially, is due to see such a large influx of Democratic women that there could be more women than white men representing that side of the aisle,” reports Vox.
Xinhua News Agency / PA Images
Xinhua News Agency / PA Images / PA Images
Ted Cruz is giving his victory speech.
Texas saw something this year that we’ve never seen before… This election was a battle of ideas. It was a contest of who we are and what we believe.
What was truly amazing is at events, we would ask people: ‘How many of you are former Democrats?’ And we would see hands go up – I see hands are going up now.
He said that protecting jobs, securing the border and protecting the constitution united Texans.
7 Nov 2018
4:11AM
Cruz thanks Beto O’Rourke for his campaign. He has to urge the crowd to listen to his praise of him as they started to boo.
He tells his supporters that he will represent every Texan.
A mention of “the national media” also prompts jeers from the crowd.
Democrat Sharice Davids has become the first Native American woman in the House of Representatives, elected in Kansas after securing 53.3% of the vote.
Sharice Davids. Charlie Riedel
Charlie Riedel
Deb Haaland has secured 59.6% of the vote in New Mexico to become the second Native American woman elected to the House.
So what does it mean that the Democrats will take back control of the House?
Apart from the influence an incredibly diverse group of candidates will have, it will prove more difficult for Trump to pass legislation.
And, according to MSNBC, the Democrats intend to request Trump’s tax returns. As early as tonight by some accounts.
.@AriMelber just reported on @MSNBC that, according to a source on the Democratic side of the Ways and Means Committee, Democrats intend to request Trump's tax returns if they do indeed gain control of the House.
Fox's Juan Williams reacting to Trump's tweet: "You now own the Republican party," he said, looking straight to cam And he didn't mean it as a positive https://t.co/QbEyT4nXxI
On this point ^ This means that Republican politicians are now less likely to criticise or turn on Trump when he does something controversial, as his administration seems prone to do.
Kellyanne Conway has been speaking to reporters about the issues on which Trump campaigned during the Midterm. She gets quite heated with one reporter who suggests he was criticised for his comments on the caravan of people from South America.
He’s been “praised for raising attention to the border issue”, she replies.
I don’t think the President worries about whether he was vindicated or not in relation to the Mexican caravan.. It’s an education for everyone to keep looking at it.
My boss doesn’t repeat trends, he makes them.
7 Nov 2018
4:41AM
Conway is now giving out about anti-Trump activists who talk too much about 2016 or 2020. She’s put on the backfoot when she’s reminded that Trump has made repeated comments about 2016.
Californian candidate Nancy Pelosi is strongly expected to be the next Speaker of the House.
Pelosi has said previously that she would not be looking to impeach President Donald Trump if Democrats regain control of the House. We’ll see if she sticks to that.
This was going to be a fun one to watch because this state was seen as a Democratic certainty during the 2016 Presidential election – but Trump won in it the end.
In the last poll before the election, Republican incumbent Scott Walker was behind his Democratic challenger Tony Evers by 5 points.
I the latest result, there’s less than a percentage point between the two, with over 82% of votes in.
The former House Speaker Paul Ryan, who retired this year and Rience Priebus, who left as Trump’s chief of staff after 6 months, are both from this state.
O’Rourke, in his concession speech, says that whatever needs to be done to help Ted Cruz unite the country after it’s been so divided, will be done.
I am as inspired, I’m as hopeful as I have ever been in my life, and tonight’s loss does nothing to diminish the way that I feel about Texas or this country.
He gives a speech on stage in El Paso, with a weird fog and blue lighting that makes you fear White Walkers are about to emerge from behind him.
Sean Hannity, one of Fox news’ top presenters, was reprimanded by the station for appearing onstage at a Trump campaign rally ahead of the Midterms.
The station, which gives more favourable coverage of Trump, released a statement earlier today saying that Hannity’s presence at the rally was “unfortunate”.
He hasn’t been involved in Fox’s midterm election coverage, by the sounds of it.
Hannity off the air on a historic night, and still no explanation from Fox. https://t.co/cS4AYJF1Uu
The latest results from the Washington Post here. 25 extra seats in the House for the Dems, and 3 extra seats in the Senate for the Republicans.
This analysis fron the WP’s The Fix is also worth reading. It lists Beto 2020 (and beyond) as a winner, and Beto 2018, and its donors under Losers. Ouch.
Fun fact on Nancy Pelosi: if she does become House Speaker, she will be the second woman ever to do so.
The first female House Speaker was… Nancy Pelosi (from 2007 to 2011).
Nancy Pelosi. Jacquelyn Martin
Jacquelyn Martin
7 Nov 2018
6:06AM
With that, we’re going to leave the liveblog there.
Keep an eye on our coverage as we analyse what the results mean for the Trump administration, and how the rest of the world reacts.
Over and out.
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