FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL Macron and Marine Le Pen are set to battle for the presidency of France in a run-off later this month, according to exit polls.
Projections show that Macron leads far-right leader Le Pen in the first round of France’s elections by a larger than expected margin.
Macron got between 28.1% and 29.7% in the first round and Le Pen 23.3% to 24.7%, with the top two candidates going through to the second round run off on 24 April, according to projections by polling firms for French television channels based on a sample of votes.
Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon was predicted to come third with between 19.8% and 20.8% and extreme-right pundit Eric Zemmour on 6.8% to 7%, with candidates of the traditional left and right trailing far behind.
Valerie Pecresse from the right-wing Republicans was on 4.3% to 5%, in a disastrous performance by the party of ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, the projections showed.
Socialist Party candidate Anne Hidalgo was projected to face electoral doom with a score of just 1.8% to 2%.
The final-round duel between Macron and Le Pen is however set to be far tighter than the run-off between them in 2017, when the current president thrashed Le Pen with 66% of the vote.
Some 48.7 million voters were eligible to vote in the election after an unusual campaign overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The projections are compiled by polling companies based on a sample of votes from polling stations especially chosen from across the country. They have generally proved to be highly accurate in past elections.
Although her opponents accuse her of being an extremist bent on dividing society, Le Pen has with some success sought to show a more moderate image and concern with voters’ daily worries such as rising prices.
Macron by contrast campaigned relatively little, by his own admission entering the election campaign later than he would have wished due to the war in Ukraine.
Pivotal debate
A pivotal moment in the next stage of the campaign is likely to come on 20 April when the two candidates are set to take part in a TV debate broadcast live on national television.
The final debate has in the past had a crucial impact on the outcome of the vote such as in 2017 when Macron was seen as gaining the upper hand in exchanges with a flustered Le Pen.
Macron is expected for the next two weeks to put his diplomatic efforts on the Ukraine crisis to one side and focus more whole-heartedly on campaigning in a bid to find the election momentum that has so far eluded his team.
This marks the third time that a far right candidate has made the run-off vote of a French presidential election, after Marine Le Pen’s campaign in 2017 and the breakthrough by her father Jean-Marie in 2002 that shocked France, although he was ultimately defeated by Jacques Chirac.
According to the interior ministry, participation stood at 65% at 3pm on Sunday with three hours of voting left, down 4.4 percentage points from the figure at the same point in 2017.
Pollsters forecast that final turnout would be also be down sharply on 2017, though likely above the record-low turnout of just under 73% in the first round in 2002.
High stakes
The stakes are high for Macron, who came to power aged 39 as France’s youngest president with a pledge to shake up the country.
He would be the first French president to win a second term since Jacques Chirac in 2002.
If he does, he would have five more years to push through reforms that would include raising the pension age to 65 from 62, in defiance of union resistance.
He would also seek to consolidate his number-one position among European leaders after the departure of German chancellor Angela Merkel.
A Le Pen victory would be seen as a triumph for right-wing populism, adding to election victories last weekend by Hungarian premier Viktor Orban and Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic, who both have cordial ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Far-right former TV pundit Zemmour made a stunning entry into the campaign last year but lost ground, and analysts say he has actually aided Le Pen by making her appear more moderate.
© AFP 2022
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