THE GOVERNMENT HAS released its National Risk Assessment report for 2023, identifying nuclear threats, higher interest rates and the absence of a sitting government in Northern Ireland among its new top strategic risks in 2023.
These were among a number of new risks identified in this year’s report, alongside concerns over a concentration in Ireland’s enterprise mix, deglobalisation and food security.
Published annually since 2014, the National Risk Assessment report identifies the challenges facing Ireland in the coming years. In total 25 risks were identified, with a number of risks carried over from the last edition.
These include concerns around the future direction of the EU, inflation and housing, alongside ”unavoidable global risks” like climate change and biodiversity loss.
It also identified “acute hazards” such as chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats.
Commenting on the report, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said the identification and assessment of “unpredictable, precarious risk and threats to our country is of ever greater importance” in light of the return of war to Europe, alongside national and international inflation and “accelerating” climate change.
New on the list of risks this year was Northern Ireland, with the government saying that “the continued absence of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive is a risk to effective governance and power-sharing” there.
It said the continued absence of the Northern Ireland institutions would present potential “significant implications” for Ireland via the risk to political stability and its economic outlook in the North.
The report stated that risks arising from terrorist incidents and armed conflicts, as highlighted in previous assessments, have become “considerably more relevant” in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
It also noted that such risks are potentially made worse as a result of Ireland “having one of the lowest levels of investment in military and defence capabilities within Europe”.
Elsewhere, new in the report this year on the economic front was the transition to higher interest rates.
With the European Central Bank base rate now at 4% – the highest it has been since 2001 – the government said a rapid transition to high interest rates risks “exposing a wide range of financial vulnerabilities and elevated uncertainty”.
In particular, it identified sectors where elevated risk-taking was present in previous years as particularly vulnerable to this threat.
This includes “pockets of the non-bank financial sector”, the commercial real estate sector and certain banks.
Also new among the list of risks this year was chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threats which may result from accidental or malign incidents.
The report said such an event, either here or oversees, could have a major public health impact along with innumerable societal and financial costs.
It said the nature of such risks demand cross-border cooperation with European states and the UK in relation to monitoring and sharing data.
“Russia’s invasion of and the ongoing war in Ukraine has resurrected concerns about
the increased proliferation, use and threat of nuclear weapons,” the report stated.
It added: “Ireland is also host to a number of significant commercial manufacturing and research and innovation sites, which, as part of their processes, may rely on chemical or biological materials and other inputs which, were there to be an uncontrolled release, for any reason, could pose a threat to individuals or the environment.”
Risks and threats arising from climate change remained among the concerns listed this year.
The government said that inaction or insufficient funding and progress on climate mitigation and adaptation risks “severely worsening” the impacts of climate change and damaging Ireland’s international reputation and credibility.
The report reads:
Ireland will face increased risk of rising sea levels and coastal change. We will also face an increased likelihood and magnitude of river and coastal flooding. Average temperatures will continue to increase.”
It also noted that some communities will be more directly and severely impacted by climate change than others and said that repeated climate impacts could cause displacement of local populations.
In relation to food security, a new addition to the list this year, the government said our vulnerability to international supply chain disruptions has been highlighted by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a risk to food supply and food security.
“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has also had a detrimental impact on global food security and availability of fertilisers,” the report stated.
Elsewhere, the report also mentioned the risk accelerating developments in high performance computing as well as artificial intelligence may pose to security.
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