THERE IS A large patch of ground that stretches out 95 kilometres wide on the Polish border between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, Belarus and Lithuania known as the Suwalki Gap.
For decades it has been identified as the most likely route for an invading Russian army into mainland Europe because it is the only point where the plains are flat and dry enough to push an invading army through.
Kaliningrad and its military base has been a sore point for European defence for decades.
Experts have predicted that if Russia ever did mobilise, an invading Russian army would likely move from Kaliningrad through Lithuania, before making its way into the European plain via the Suwalki Gap.
The grimness of that assessment cannot be underestimated. What would follow would be a huge conventional battle in Poland or in Germany, with a likely use of tactical nuclear weapons.
In conversations in Brussels this week, military sources told The Journal that the drain on Russian military resources in Ukraine coupled with the rush of NATO countries’ air forces and ground troops to shore up the strategic Suwalki Gap is currently ensuring that any Russian ambitions are tamed.
But if the Suwalki Gap has been tamed for now then the strategic gap off the Western Atlantic coast of Europe, another major defence sore point, has not – and that exists in the waters off the coast of Ireland.
Chats with sources in Belgium, both diplomatic and military, show it is one of the most important strategic locations for NATO.
It is not just our own waters – the Irish maritime neighbourhood is close to an Atlantic stretch of water between Iceland and Scotland. This is where Russian nuclear deterrent submarines transit from their bases in the arctic reaches of Russia towards patrol zones off America.
This week The Journal travelled to Brussels for briefings and meetings with sources at NATO headquarters and at the offices of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE).
The key takeaway is NATO is not pushing for full Irish membership but is tailoring a way for the neutral country to get closer and it is clear that the Irish Government are keen to engage.
There has been a steady escalation in Ireland’s relationship with NATO in recent years, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While polling has suggested that the Irish public is in support of Ireland remaining neutral, behind the scenes Ireland has significantly increased its work with NATO and is benefitting from the relationship in practical ways like intelligence sharing, training and upskilling and also in terms of the political benefits.
Officials in Brussels are adamant that this getting closer is not designed to change Ireland’s neutral stance.
If NATO headquarters, located near Zaventem Airport in the Belgian capital, is the beating heart of the slow bureaucracy of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation then SHAPE, an hour away in the Wallonian city of Mons, is its operations command.
What has unfolded is an a la carte approach to mutual defence.
It is not the first time The Journal went to NATO to meet policy and military sources having travelled there in June 2023 ahead of the Consultative Forum on International Security.
The whistlestop tour of Irish/NATO relations is: Ireland is not a member of NATO, but it is a partner nation and has been since the 1990s – this is close but not close enough to benefit from full allied status.
The government has given a number of clear indications that while it wants Ireland to remain neutral, it would also like to have closer ties to NATO and other mutual defence organisations. After a forum on international security at home last year Ireland ended up announcing the ending of the Triple Lock mechanism for the deployment of Irish troops.
That closer relationship has resulted in the Individual Tailored Partnership Programme (ITPP) which allows for greater information and intelligence sharing with the military and political alliance in areas such as peacekeeping, maritime security and tackling cyber and hybrid threats such as disinformation operations.
Ireland is not alone in such an agreement – Japan and Switzerland are other countries with similar agreements.
Ireland’s agreement came as a result of an increased threat level due to the war in Ukraine.
The programme runs in tandem with the other project known as Partnership for Peace which Ireland has been involved with since 1999.
The atmosphere in NATO headquarters is that classic stuffy bureaucratic talking and policy institution. Speaking to officials that work in the building, there is a classic officious language of buzzwords and on-message diplomatic double speak.
Everyone you speak to gives the credible impression that they don’t think about Ireland as much as some commentators at home believe they do. In fact NATO officials we spoke to in off-the-record chats all said that the alliance is moving forward regardless of the machinations of Irish reticence to join the organisation.
NATO’s focus is intensely towards its eastern flank; not just the border with Ukraine but other locations also, where they have placed massive amounts of air power and military assets in response to Russia.
One source described it as “a powder keg that could explode at any moment”. There are also concerns about the Balkans, where 13 Irish troops are involved in the alliance’s KFOR peacekeeping operation in Kosovo.
Russian activity is not limited to the east of Europe either. A high level military source with knowledge of the intelligence and activities off the Irish coast said Russian ships are very much active, not just in the Atlantic but in all the water around Ireland.
Because of this, NATO has increased its patrols in the open water outside of Ireland’s sovereign 12 mile limit.
The Russian and NATO activity has a focus around the stretch of water north of Donegal, between Iceland and Scotland.
Here, the source said, Russian nuclear deterrent submarines make their way from their bases in the Arctic to their patrols off the coast of America.
There are other Russian military ships also steaming and posturing off the west coast and elsewhere; the source said NATO keeps a very close watch, including with satellite imagery, of those craft.
NATO and other nations believe the Russian vessels are positioning off Ireland for two specific reasons, one military source said, and it isn’t because of the activities of the Irish State.
Firstly, the ships must operate in the area where, if there is a war with NATO, they will engage resupply missions and blockade Europe. in other words they are making sure that they are operating in the area where they will have to operate in a war.
The second reason is that they are actively and constantly mapping and monitoring the undersea critical infrastructure of internet cables linking Ireland and Europe with the United States.
Another source described how this has all the hallmarks of a new cold war, with the close monitoring of these ships being done by NATO vessels, which have also increased anti-submarine patrols.
It is now understood that the Russian navy is expected, in the coming weeks, to run naval exercises and drills in the Atlantic and elsewhere as part of a massive global exercise, similar to the ones carried out off the coast of Ireland in January 2022, just weeks before the invasion of Ukraine.
This is part of a major exercise by the Russians and is a posturing display of their military reach – it is going to be in the North Atlantic as well as in other oceans. Sources have said that the scale of the exercise will be smaller than previous shows of force and smaller than the display in 2022.
Also NATO carries out air policing from bases in Iceland, which is a member state of the alliance. Sources have said that control of sovereign airspace is for individual nations but a number of countries in the Balkans and in Iceland take in NATO fighters to carry out the function.
There are a number of member countries in Eastern Europe who do not have an air interception capability that get NATO cover.
One of the issues that comes up repeatedly at NATO HQ is Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons.
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened in July to relaunch production of intermediate-range nuclear weapons if the United States confirmed its intention to deploy missiles to Germany or elsewhere in Europe.
At the same time, Russian propaganda television shows have repeatedly claimed that nuclear weapons will be used during the war against Ukraine, and these clips have been shared widely on social media.
The sources we spoke to said that indications are that Russia is changing its doctrine on the deployment of nuclear weapons. One source noted that it is clearly being said by the Russians that they are reviewing it – but that in all likelihood it has already been changed.
Previously the doctrine said that nuclear weapons would only be used if there was an existential threat towards Russia. Now, however, it is believed that Russia would consider a pre-emptive launch.
However, the Russian response to the Kursk incursion by Ukraine may suggest that the doctrine is more nuanced that just that.
A senior source said there is clear intelligence and evidence that rather than being reckless with its nuclear weapons that if anything Russia has become more careful.
The official said that there “has not been a significant posture change” and Russia is being “very careful, very cautious” not to escalate to the point of nuclear weapons being used.
One of the biggest shifts in NATO strategy is away from offensive operations. Instead, its entire focus is on deterrence and defence.
One senior military source said that there is unlikely to be more peacekeeping missions such as in Kosovo, for example, because NATO may not be welcomed in such a role.
NATO views Ireland as a member of a select group known as the WEPs (Western European Partners). The countries include Switzerland, Malta and Ireland. Other partner nations were Finland and Sweden but they have since become full members.
An official said this co-operation worked to increase interoperability and improvements to defence, as well as protecting undersea infrastructure and dealing with cyber attacks.
The priority for all sources and officials we spoke to in Brussels is around closing gaps which can be exploited by Russia and other actors such as China.
One source said that it is important for members of the Irish population to understand that the focus of NATO is to fulfill its obligations to protect its member states.
There is also a lot of chatter from sources in Brussels and in Dublin that Ireland could benefit vicariously from that side of the Alliance relationship. Sources suggested that Ireland’s partnership is basically a de facto membership, only missing the cover of the nuclear umbrella assured within the mutual defence pact.
When it comes to sharing of intelligence for instance, sources said that Ireland would be more likely to benefit from bilateral agreements to share data from other likeminded nations. In that it may not need NATO’s information channel. Sources hinted at this sort of relationship existing between Ireland and neighbours such as France, the US and Britain.
One of the threats is that of the spike in hybrid activities, which ranges from disinformation to cyber infiltrations and espionage. In fact the definition of hybrid warfare is so wide that it essentially captures all the nefarious activities of malign actors that don’t involve firing guns.
An expert in the area said that disinformation operations are not focused around convincing people to believe certain things but to exploit the tensions that already exist in societies, like anti-immigrant sentiment, xenophobia and a lack of trust in governments.
A number of officials made mention of the practice of using arson as a tool in hybrid operations – they referenced arson attacks on warehouses in Poland designed to stymie supplies to Ukraine, for example.
We asked a number of sources and officials whether the burning of proposed migrant centres in Ireland may be similar. They were unable to say categorically but suggested that there is a pattern of fires across Europe.
Mark Tervakosi works in the US NATO mission as a political counsellor and described the view of the US towards Ireland as a welcome partner.
The key thrust of his comments to The Journal were that no country should go it alone.
He used the quote from John Donne “no man is an island” but changed it to say “no island is an island” to illustrate his point.
“Ireland has served with distinction in NATO operations – Bosnia and Afghanistan and [it] continues to serve in KFOR – which is deeply appreciated by the US and the NATO alliance.
“It shows the importance of increasing our interoperability so we can serve shoulder to shoulder. It is vital,” he said.
Tervakosi believes that as the partnership with Ireland develops that other projects may be identified to increase the benefit.
“We need to continue to find new ways to work together because the threats and challenges continue to grow, continue to evolve and start get into emerging and destructive technologies and the more NATO works with our partners around the world the more secure we can be in our co-opration,” he added.
Tervakosi spoke with many of the buzzwords of diplomacy and phrases beloved by NATO such as “growing resilience” but the message from the official was that the partnerships, particularly with Critical Undersea Infrastructure (CUI), was to work with the private sector as well as other nations and militaries.
He said that the way major multinational tech companies in Ireland and other parts of the world were responding to threats to CUI showed the importance of those links.
“The more we can share on this, the better,” he added.
Tervakosi and other people we spoke to in Brussels kept reiterating the line that Ireland taking a decision to join the alliance was for Ireland alone. The response to such a question always comes with the caveat that membership and partnerships comes with more benefits than negatives.
Whatever the future holds for Irish involvement with the allies it is key that while Ireland is a plus one at the party, it is benefiting already from the closer cooperation.
There are Irish diplomatic officers in or near the building and Irish Defence Forces uniforms can be seen occasionally in the grey hulk of NATO headquarters and in SHAPE.
The discussions also reveal that while Ireland is getting a tailored partnership it is at least being offered a way to close the gap around its waters – a far bigger weakness than the 95 kms of ground in Eastern Europe.
Perhaps the best way to sum up the impression is that Ireland’s partnership with NATO is a friendship with benefits more than a full blown affair.
For the time being it is unlikely that there will be a politician willing to admit that there is a steady escalation in that relationship.
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