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The Explainer / SoundCloud
HOW WOULD BREXIT affect Irish fridges, shelves, and shops?
We’re just three weeks out from the 29 March, the date by which the UK is due to leave the European Union, and a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever. Although companies are steering clear of speculation, there is a fear about what exists now as a free-flowing and open market could shudder to a halt, at least briefly, because of Brexit.
Ireland, of course, has a close business and trading relationship with the UK, which means Brexit, particularly the uncertainty that it’s brought, has threatened it.
Of particular significance are the Irish businesses that export to the UK, and rely on that UK market to a significant degree: if that market is closed off to them, or becomes less lucrative to export to, then that could threaten businesses to the point of collapse. This means that some foods produced and distributed inside Ireland could be at risk.
So what foods should we be worried about? In short, fresh produce – like agrifoods, fruit and vegetables – that Ireland imports through the UK. This could mean that there is a short period immediately after a no-deal Brexit where these foods could be in short supply.
Ireland also imports quite a bit of confectionery and baked goods from the UK, but because this is preservable it shouldn’t be a problem to source post a no-deal Brexit in the long run – although it could become more expensive.
The UK landbridge
The UK landbridge consists of the roads and ports Irish trucks use to get products to the EU, and vice versa. Around 150,000 Irish trucks use the landbridge a year; two-thirds of Irish goods exporters make use of the UK landbridge to access continental markets.
A further 53% of Irish goods exports (measured in volume) to all countries other than the UK are transported via the UK.
Meats and other ‘perishables’ are massively reliant on the UK landbridge. Although it’s more expensive than circumventing it, it’s also much faster: it takes less than 20 hours from Ireland through Great Britain to the EU, according to a report by the Irish Maritime Development Office (Nov 2018).
Dublin to France would double to 40 hours for direct roll-on, roll-off services. And if there are delays, it will affect the food we import and export.
If there are checks at Dover-Calais, and they take 80 seconds to carry out, that means the tailback of trucks will be “unrecoverable” – if they take 40 seconds, then there will be no change to the free-flowing system we have currently.
But Irish hauliers have said that it’s “unreasonable” to expect that no-deal Brexit checks would take just 40 seconds.
Tariffs
If there’s a no-deal Brexit, it will mean a number of products could be hit by tariffs, which is a tax imposed on goods or services from other countries in order to favour home industries.
Ireland’s biggest exports, beef and cheese, are at particular risk (of the 90% of Irish beef that is exported, 47% goes to the UK, and 87% of Irish cheddar cheese is exported to the UK).
The expectation is that the UK’s trading relationship with other countries would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – meaning a set standard of tariffs (though they would have to apply to join).
The items that carry the highest import tariff rates under WTO rules are meat (49%), cereals (45%), sugars and confectionery (42%), and dairy products (31%). Here’s a list of the tariffs by commodity, meaning the extra cost of importing:
For bread, 95% of all flour used actually comes from the UK, so importing that would carry tariffs in a no-deal Brexit. Breadmakers have warned that if there is no deal, tariffs could result in prices increasing by between 10% and 15%, as breadmakers would be paying €172 extra per tonne of flour they import.
Gerald Cunningham, president of the Flour Confectioners and Bakers Association, told TheJournal.ie this when asked if it would mean there would be a shortage of bread: “I’d like to think that the shelves will be full, we don’t want to panic and put more pressure on bread-making businesses.
The main point is that ports need to stay open and free-flowing, the same with the borders.
The all-island economy
Flour, cheese and the meat industries are all based on north-south cooperation.
“Every year 400,000 lambs go South, and 400,000 pigs meet them and go North,” Irish Farmers’ Association president Joe Healy said at its AGM this year, adding that the organisation’s support was for the backstop to remain.
A UK committee was told that farmers in the North were so worried about the Republic of Ireland being closed off to them because of Brexit that they had considered breeding less lambs for this season.
If farmers in the North can’t send lambs down here, because of checks or because it just doesn’t make financial sense for them anymore, there could be a surplus in the North:
“We can’t eat our way out of the problem”, as one representative told TheJournal.ie.
Guinness is also another all-island-of-Ireland product: although it’s brewed at St James’ Gate, it’s then transported up to Belfast where it’s packaged, and some of it is then brought back down to Dublin for export.
Diageo told a UK Business committee that 18,000 of its trucks cross that border a year, “so even small hold-ups to process those truck movements would be really unwelcome”, it also stated in an annual report that it has no intention to change its supply chain because of Brexit.
In 2017, Ireland imported over 72,000 tonnes of potatoes, 62,000 tonnes of cheese, 72,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish and almost 70 million litres of water.
Almost 10,000 tonnes of tea and over 21,000 tonnes of coffee were imported in 2017.
Most of these are non-perishable goods, so if there is a delay, it’s reasonable to assume that the supply chain will catch up with itself eventually.
Shane Hamill of Bord Bia said that companies are going to try to offset costs as best they can.
“You’ll see a lot of companies reformulating their products, shifting their ingredients in order to manage any cost increases.
You might also see rounded pricing – food going for €1 instead of 97 cent.
Fish would also become more expensive. A Netherlands report on fishing in the EU says that if the United Kingdom “completely closed its marine areas, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium would be affected the most”.
“The most visible impact of Brexit on fish consumption would be expected in Ireland (more than 4% decline), followed by UK. The change in consumption is directly linked to the changes in consumer prices… The strongest increase of fish prices occurs in Ireland, where consumer prices of fish products would grow by more than 9%.
The reason for such a high price reaction is the large dependence on trade in the fish processing sector. In Ireland, about 80% of consumption is sourced by imports out of which 70% comes from Europe, leading to a high sensitivity of consumer prices on trade changes.
Fish production would also decrease, according to the same report.
An interesting note on potatoes and potato seeds: Michael Creed, the Minster for Agriculture, Food and the Marine told the Dáil that seed potatoes are banned from entering the EU from third countries.
Traders have been forewarned about this, he said, and all advice to Irish growers is to ensure that UK seed is supplied before the end of March in order to facilitate the 2019 planting season.
“There will then be at least another 9 months before the 2020 planting season for the European Commission to consider requests from the UK for amendment to Annex III of the Plant Health directive based on a detailed scientific justification as to why the amendment is warranted,” he said – so they’re putting that off for later.
A good by-product of Brexit, however, is that it may get people thinking about how they get their food so cheaply and so quickly.
“I think people are starting to pay a little bit more attention to what is on their shelves,” Shane Hamill says, “so there’s certainly a new appreciation not only for how the food arrives and how quickly it takes, but also where it’s coming from and that’s probably a good thing.”
Find out more about our podcast The Explainer here.
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Everything will be fine people..we have a top man to lead us in to an epidemic..if his credentials are anything to go by we’ll be as safe as a straw house in a tornado.
Just cancel it.
@Brian Dunne: Why? If they’re that concerned about it just stop away fans travelling over for it. There is no talk in the UK of cancelling Football matches and they’ve 12 confirmed cases. It’s a nice deflection anyway from the disastrous election the Government had.
@David Garland: that deflection comment has to be one of the most stupid comments I’ve read ever, anywhere. Jesus wept.
@Connoroconner: How is it? It may be a health emergency and the public’s focus has forgotten about the election results already.. Jesus wept at your snowflake reaction
@David Garland: the public has forgotten about the election!!??? I’ll say it again: Jesus wept!
The fallout of the election got wall to wall coverage in all the papers yesterday, all the Sunday morning current affairs shows on radio and the week in politics on RTE TV. Perhaps you have a goldfish memory, but thankfully most people don’t and most people are able to process multiple news events at the same time.
@David Garland: God the intelligents of some people on this site. That statement takes the biscuit all right
@David Garland: dope
@David Garland: One has F A to do with the other
@Connoroconner: Well you know taxi drivers will have their opinions…
Restrict travel from infected areas and enforce screening at all airports and ports. This should be done now before the cat is out of the bag….
@Collie Ennis: it’s probably too late collie it could be here spreading and no ones copped it yet
@Collie Ennis: Given the numbers involved of those likely to become infected and those likely to need intensive care, ventilation etc. How can any Health Service who can’t provide for it’s existing care claim to be ready for this? Have they suddenly found a few hospitals, all kitted out with staff provided, are there 1000 extra beds somewhere? Silly claims.
@Collie Ennis: The airport screenings are only useful in detecting symptomatic cases. There’s growing evidence that a small percentage of people infected do not show any symptoms but are still spreading the virus. If that’s the case, then a global pandemic is pretty much assured. Reading between the lines of statements by various governments and the World Health Organisation the current plan seems to be to try contain the virus for as long as possible to give added time for countries to get their health systems as prepared as possible. The WHO calling for richer countries to donate medical equipment, particularly ventilators, to African nations when there has only been one confirmed case on the African continent (Egypt) is a bit of a clue as to how they see this playing out.
@Collie Ennis: Airport screening doesn’t work. All you can do is measure temperature and that’s very unreliable. There’s more chance it will walk in via an infected person who is still going through the incubation period and far less likely that a person who is already showing symptoms is going to feel like getting onboard an airplane. I’d bet on it already being in the country. The cat was out of the bag when all those people fled Wuhan before the lockdown or returned here after the Chinese New year celebrations.
There’s people coming and going from here to Italy every day. There’s up to a 14 day incubation period where the carrier may not show symptoms yet be infectious. I’d say it’s mathematically improbable that it’s not here already.
Now that is the face of a man who has everything under control. He’s got this!
@Fergus Murphy: lucky for us he’s only a figure head at times like this, the real decisions are made by experts.
@Fergus Murphy: This is not an issue for attempted political point scoring.
@Connoroconner: Thanks for letting me know
Simon Harris has everything under control. Hes buying a 1000 gallons of flat 7 up and lemsips from the local pound shop
Would a couple of prayers help do u think !!!. The cat was looking at me strange this morning as if seen how much meat was in me and how long he could feast !!!!!
@smart cat: not sure about prayers. Could do with a few players though…
Is there anything to be said for saying another Mass?
@Paul Jude Redmond: I get one said today in the local church
@Paul Jude Redmond: No mass gatherings, that’s what the minister said.
@smart cat: look above. You might catch a joke still flying over you.
Sure every day on a train to work is a mass gathering.
Game should be postponed, surely it’s a no brainer that a mass gathering with supporters from the worst affected country in Europe is a bad idea. Better safe than sorry
Cancel it.
I’m actually afraid ..
But lads, it’ll be grand. Super Simon is on the case. It’ll be another achievement he can be proud if in his time as health minister
Cancel the fecking game. The health of the entire country is more important than a game of rugger.
@Miguel Delgado: play it without a crowd..
Mary Lou will sort it out.
Time to panic buy sliced white bread and lemsips after reading that
I read on RTÉ the shinners are looking to hold a public rally on the 7th march the same day of the Ireland v Italy match. So a perfect storm for mass spreading of the virus with the Italians over in force. SF the same party that wants to run the country not so clever if they intend going ahead with the rally. The only government they’ll run will be from inside a quarantine centre in the RDS.
@Tom Harpur Photography: Italians from affected areas are not allowed to leave their villages, even if they have no symptoms. All the affected people are in a specific area of the country
@Maria Cennerazzo: but have the Italian authorities found patient zero yet no so patient zero could be asymptotic walking around oblivious not knowing he she is a carrier.
Who was he?
He’s listening to advice from the WHO. Yikes!!. They haven’t even declared a pandemic yet. Proactive is not in their vocabulary.
@saoirse janneau: So where should be get his advice on matters of global health, if not from the organisation tasked with coordinating actions relating to global health ?
@Tommy Roche: it’s in 40 countries with massive epidemics in at least 3 now. Eitheopia is still flying plane loads of Chinese in based on WHO reluctance to call it what it is. Africa will be destroyed by this virus. It causes viral pneumonia which leads to hypoxia requiring ventilators. Very few health systems in Africa even have this machinery. This is gross negligence .
@saoirse janneau: Epidemics in 3 countries is not a pandemic. I do actually get what you mean, that countries need to get prepared and the WHO needs to issue strong advice, but declaring a pandemic before there actually is one would help nobody. The WHO have already asked developed nations to help African nations by supplying ventilators, etc, which seems to suggest the WHO are expecting this to become a global pandemic. But say they declared a pandemic today. What country with any kind of sensible government would allow the export of medical equipment such as ventilators to poorer countries when they are likely to need all this equipment for their own citizens. When a global health emergency is declared, as is the case now, it’s means countries getting prepared whilst also helping poorer nations get prepared. When a global pandemic is announced, particularly when the virus is as nasty as this appears to be, then it’s going to be pretty much a case of circling the wagons and looking after your own first.
It’s going to spread globally and it’s going to be like the flu – many will get it every year and some of those with weak immune systems or other frailties will die. Current containment efforts will only spread out the initial peak impact on health systems which is still a good thing, especially since we have that gombeen in charge.
It’s the ancient viruses melting out of the ice and permafrost we need to be worried about.
At least we have a health system, my worry is if it spread to Mumbai in India, that would be horrific, no sanitation and a very poor society! Be thankful for what we have
@Caroline Broadhurst: yes or if it gets to certain states in Africa. I hate when people say we have a third world health system. Compared to other modern states, yes it could be better, but it’s not third world. To say so is an insult to the great staff we have in our hospitals.
What about all the Italian students who are coming in
@Denis Doyle: Cancel the match and the Sinn Fein demonstration. Our lives are more important.
cancel the rugby
I think everyone will be at home sitting that match out.
Cancel the match. Absolutely no reason to take any risk whatsoever.
Did our Buddy Simon mention why there’s a high likelihood we’ll have a confirmed case? Anything to do with it being around the EU summit a few days ago?
Peter Pellegrini has been hospitalised with coronavirus, maybe as a parting gift leo brought some back for us all.
Our medics in our hospitals do a superb job despite the overcrowding on trollies. It isn’t their fault but the fault of successive governments and health ministers. They should have fixed the problems years ago, they knew it would get worse. The HSE bosses wont be able to handle an epidemic they’re have not prepared for such an event
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