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IN AN EMOTIONAL speech at the weekend, Ukrainian president Vlodymyr Zelenskyy criticised NATO for refusing to impose a no-fly zone over his country, which continues to come under attack from Russian forces.
“All the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you, because of your weakness, because of your lack of unity,” he said.
“The alliance has given the green light to the bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages by refusing to create a no-fly zone.”
Although there have been discussions about some countries providing aircraft to Ukrainian forces, the prospect of any international coalition imposing a no-fly zone has been continuously ruled out.
Speaking to The Journal, security and defence analyst Declan Power said the consequences of implementing a no-fly zone could be explosive and would be in conflict with the traditional aim of this kind of action, which is to de-escalate a situation.
What is a no-fly zone?
Any region of airspace in which the passage of certain aircraft has been restricted can be classed as a no-fly zone. They can be put in place for security reasons over particular locations or buildings or temporarily for a large event.
In this circumstance, the purpose would be to prevent Russian military aircraft from entering the airspace over Ukraine, whether it was for surveillance or to launch an attack from the air.
Classifying that space as a no-fly zone is more complicated than simply giving it that designation, Power explained. It would require involvement by international forces – in this case NATO – and considerable resources.
“With a no-fly zone it doesn’t have to be NATO, but it is usually NATO-related nations. They would have command and control systems, personnel, there may be airbases already in situ,” he said.
“This is not just about putting jets in the air, there has to be a kind of ringmaster, people who have the appropriate communications and electronic support systems, such as military radar. That exists on the ground, well out of the battlefield.”
Then you have other assets, known as electronic coordination centres. They are aircraft that fly well above what’s happening on the ground. If you’ve ever seen old war films with an RAF centre with a big map on the table, it’s the same concept, but transported onto an aircraft with a load of people sitting around various consoles and they coordinate the fighter jets.
“With the command and control on the ground and an extension of it in the air you can then start to decide on flight squadrons, the numbers needed and where to have them,” he explained.
“The fighter jets are properly armed and coordinated, they have their own systems but they’re connected back to bigger systems so the entire enforcement zone is covered.”
Power said these fighter pilots would be given strict rules of engagement, that could include orders to engage with and potentially shoot down aircraft that are considered to be in breach of the no-fly zone.
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Why won’t NATO impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine?
He said an air conflict between NATO and the Russian air force would be “a serious digging match”, as Russia has an experienced air force with strong technology, though it is not as advanced as the NATO side.
“If the Russians weren’t able to handle it there’s potential for escalation. Neither of them have been directly against each other in combat – for good reason.”
No-fly zones have been used a number of times in the past – not just by NATO – including in recent years in Syria to protect civilians from airstrikes by the Russian-based Syrian regime.
In this situation, Power said, the threat to the wider international coalition was low and the aim was to protect civilians from hugely destructive strikes from the air and prevent an escalation in the conflict.
“It allows the weaker opponents to hold the line, taking the worse of the carnage out of the situation and allowing the smaller opponent breathing space,” he explained.
And in those types of situations you wouldn’t have the Russians deploying their airforce, their attitude would be if the Syrians can’t handle it they can’t handle it. But in Ukraine, NATO forces would be directly against Russia, and if they went head-to-head there’s potential for serious escalation.
“The no-fly zone concept is designed as an instrument to limit escalation, the idea is to limit devastation against the civilian population – in this case it would be an instrument of escalation which defeats the purpose.”
This escalation could lead to a wider international conflict, and potentially the use of nuclear weapons, he said.
“Some have argued that if you deployed air assets to Ukraine you’d give the Russians an immediate bloody nose and they’d be stunned. But you could have such a level of panic and dissonant thinking at the senior level that it pushes the situation into a nuclear war very quickly.”
Would a no-fly zone make a big difference to Ukraine’s defence?
Power said that imposing a no-fly zone may not be what Ukraine ultimately needs for its battle against Russian forces.
In the early part of the invasion, mane of the Ukrainian army’s airforce assets were destroyed, as Russian forces had identified and taken them out.
“Even at the best of times, their air force was out of date, so in jet-to-jet combat they would have struggled,” he said.
One alternative to a no-fly zone is a donation from other countries, such as Poland and Romania, of fighter jets that Ukrainian pilots could fly.
“Would that be acceptable to the Russians?” Power said.
Would they see that as direct interference? And would the Ukrainians have the expertise if they did get those aircraft? I dare say they’d make a fair go of it but in a one-on-one battle the Russians would have the upper-hand in the longterm.
He said the ground fighting is where Ukraine has a chance and Russian forces will never be able to entirely cut the country off from borders that facilitate donations of Western weaponry.
“The Russians are proving slow on the ground, even if they take it all they won’t be able to occupy it, what we’ll have is an insurgency war,” he said.
“So we could see Ukraine go the way Syria did; fragmented. It’s natural for the Ukrainians to make noise and push for as much as they can get, but what they are planning for in the longer term is that move to an insurgency war.”
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So Dr Anthony Holohan, it’s okay for children to be in school in a full class for five hours with approximately 30 other pupils but it’s not okay to sit down in a restaurant for about an hour with your family for a meal!
@Jimmy Pea: And ok for them to be inside a hotel bar restaurant for hours on end yet a normal bar restaurant is somehow more dangerous to kids. Laughable.
@Paul Furey: Where are your facts Paul?!?! You never have any…… Heres an exert from an article and a link to the article pointing out that Holohan was against face masks for the public initially.
“Dr Holohan and others trotted out a litany of reasons why face masks would be an ineffective measure for the general public.”
@Paul Hedderman: at the time he was following what was public health advice world wide, people really need to build a bridge and stop getting personal about Dr Holohan.
@Jimmy Pea: oh change the record. People say the same thing every single day. Everything doesn’t revolve around sitting in a darned restaurant. Dr Holohan is doing the best he can with the tools he has (pardon the pun lol) and don’t bring up the cervical checks either. That was tragic, absolutely heartbreaking but he didn’t single handedly tell all those women they were fine. Give the man a break for goodness sake.
@GClare: It wasn’t public health advice worldwide at the time, and many countries had implemented masks months before us. In certain countries like Ireland and the US, the government flat out lied to us about mask wearing. That was the Irish public health advice at the time. Blatantly lying to the people of Ireland has consequences for future public health advice, such as this indoor dining charade.
@Jimmy Pea: That statement was the clearest signal of NPHET being allowed to over step their mark repeatedly. Even with the slightest good news story of families being allowed to finally dine together (behind all other countries) they feel the need to put the sword in. Why do anything at all ever?
“The Chief Medical Officer yesterday advised parents that it is safer not to bring children into indoor dining settings.” How was it safe last year when we had no vaccines and the vulnerable weren’t protected with vaccines? But now this year its not safe? What has changed between this year and last year? Has the virus gotten more deadly because globally deaths are nowhere near what they were last year?
Lastly I’d love to know where did he get his information form to come to this conclusion or is it just his opinion which is not based on facts or science?
@David Clements: We have a paradox. How is it safe to go to a pub inside in Newry and not in Dundalk? Its safe for an unvaccinated family to have a meal indoors in a hotel restaurant but not in one with no hotel. If safe all over Europe for unvaccinated kids to have meal with their parents but its unsafe here? The whole of Europe is lifting restrictions, in Ireland we had introducing more restrictions and bigger fines and penalties.
They have lost the public on this. We all saw the football stadiums full of people. Bars and restaurants full of people enjoying themselves. Maybe we have a different strain of Covid here that no one told us about.
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: Newry is in a different country, different jurisdiction. 48,000 cases in the UK yesterday and 49 deaths. Would you be hedging bets on any UK decision being safe given their disastrous mismanagement of the crisis? I wouldn’t. The rest of Europe is not opening up and relaxing restrictions. They are doing the opposite.
It’s a terrible decision. We should be either following medical evidence which advises against unvaccinated in a crowded indoor setting or advocate personal responsibility and allow people to make their own decisions.
This idea of allowing some unvaccinated indoors but not others based on what happens to be politically convenient at the time is absolutely absurd and leads to a general sense of unfairness and annoyance among the public.
@Rochelle: yes but is there any consideration at all for businesses and workers livelihoods. You’ve left this important variable out. The dilemma is to get businesses open, people in work while trying to protect the health of the general population as best we can. What is your alternative solution that checks those boxes?
If you chose not to get the vaccine I have no sympathy for you. But what’s the difference d
Between an unvaccinated 16 or 17 year old that can go in while a 19 or 20 year old who hasn’t got a vaccine yet can’t?
@Ronan O’Keeffe: trying to make sense of it, good luck with that.
Imagine the people who for reasons of not being able to take the vaccine for medical reasons…
For people who have legitimate concerns about the rushed method in which this was brought out & of its effectiveness against new strains…
For people who were very concerned about a government proposal to spy & inform in your neighbours if they were breaking restrictions ..
A government who has locked up an elderly lady for 3 months for not wearing a mask while in England they are set to announce that masks are no longer required everywhere.
Good luck trying to make sense of this arbitrary discrimanatory legislation from a government who having giving themselves 3 pay raises during Covid & tell us we are all in it together.
@Hear me now: as they deliver more broken promises then run up the stairs without having to take any questions.
& for anyone who questions this mess or doesn’t go along with the general narrative they are mocked… ridiculed…called anti-vaxxers… conspiracy theorists…
Never be afraid to challange the status quo _ always ask questions…do not just nod & accept.
Be good everyone…Hopefully tomorrow will be better than today.
Rant over.
@Ronan O’Keeffe: because we decided – ages ago – that 18 was the start of adulthood. With all the rights and responsibilities and requirements to abide by the rules that come with being an adult.
@EvieXVI: we also decided – ages ago – that discrimination is totally unacceptable and should not be tolerated in any developed, civilised society, but hey-ho here we are.
@Eoin Jackson: that depends on your definition of discrimination. When a decision is made for the common good and a law introduced for the common good then this is not discrimination. The needs of the many outweigh the wants of the few. That’s how society works.
But its ok to bring them into the Hotel Bar and not the Bar up the street.. has Professor Tony giving a Logical difference between a Hotel bar and a bar next door..
This latest ‘concession’ raises more questions.
If asymptomatic children can still pass on the virus as we have been told then surely this latest move by the government is totally irresponsible?
This decision has nothing to do with COVID. Just a weak government looking for brownie points.
@Will: That’s exactly it, it’s a decision made purely for optics. They’ll claim they’re mostly following the health advice but also listening to the public.
In reality this is the worst outcome for the public since the virus will spread more among unvaccinated children and staff in indoor dining and many young people will be prevented from dining indoors.
We need a government with the courage to pick a lane on issues like this.
@Rochelle: what’s the alternative. Those kids are not in school at present and are in a protective bubble at hime with their vaccinated parents. Chances are any socialising they are doing during the height of Summer is outdoors. Simple. It’s a huge conspiracy theory after all.
“we need to trust people” – yeah when it comes to this one specific detail, everything else it’s just lock it down to stop people doing it. Talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Not a chance that will happen. It will be pushed out 2/3 weeks and then it will be decided to wait for a few weeks to allow schools to reopen and then your into October at which time cases will be high (which wont mean anything with majority vaccinated) but it will put off until next year.
@Roisin Lyons: you should ask all the people who were outraged last week at the prospect of not being allowed to dine indoors with their kids who are not eligible to be vaccinated yet. This was a decision based on public pressure
So. I have chosen not to get the vaccine at the moment for my own personal reasons. I have bent over backwards to make sure I complied with all the restrictions since day 1. I am a young healthy person, BUT anyone who caught the virus can avail of this now luxury. You are now being rewarded a license for being covid positive. If I had of known that I’d be out with the masses having raves and pints and drinks with everyone
@Alexandra Molloy: you should be glad that everyone else is getting vaccinated to protect you, and happy enough to eat and drink outdoors for a few weeks or months so that enough people are vaccinated that you won’t need to worry about it
No that you can get a meal and a pint indoors can the government let non essential workers have driving lessons and start getting more driving tests done
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