THE PEOPLE OF Northern Ireland went to the polls yesterday to have their say on the political future of the region and now it’s time to figure out what they said.
Counting is underway at three centres across Northern Ireland to fill the Stormont assembly’s 90 seats, with five Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) elected across each of the 18 constituencies.
Here are five things to watch out for as the results are returned:
Will Sinn Féin emerge as the largest party?
After years of catching up with their unionist rivals, polls have consistently suggested that Sinn Féin will finally overtake the DUP and become the largest party in Northern Ireland.
The party who gets the most seats in the election earns the right to nominate the next first minister.
While the office is a joint one that holds equal power with the deputy first minister, the title holds huge symbolic significance and would represent a major shift in politics in the North.
A unionist party has always been the biggest in the Assembly, and previously the Stormont Parliament, since the formation of Northern Ireland in 1921.
Sinn Féin could potentially even lose seats and still end up as the largest party, if their losses aren’t as great as the DUP’s (there was just one seat between the two parties after the last election).
However, retaining seats in West Belfast, Foyle, West Tyrone and Fermanagh & South Tyrone is the most likely path to Michelle O’Neill securing the first minister role.
Can the DUP successfully do damage control?
After a string of dismal poll results this election has largely been framed as a damage control operation for the DUP.
The party is under significant pressure from the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), which threatens to eliminate its marginal grip on first minister position.
It has taken a cautious approach to running candidates, fielding 30 in contrast to Sinn Féin’s 34.
This opens up the mathematical prospect of Sinn Féin securing more votes than the DUP, but the unionist party managing to win more seats.
In the last Assembly elections in 2017 Jeffrey Donaldson’s party won 28 seats, just ahead of Sinn Fein’s 27.
The key battlegrounds for the DUP are likely to be Foyle, Strangford and East Antrim.
Will there be a surge for the Alliance Party?
Perhaps the most significant development in Northern Ireland politics in recent years has been the continued growth of the Alliance Party.
The most recent election poll even put the cross-community party neck-and-neck with the DUP for second place.
While the DUP have spent much of the campaign focusing on issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol, Alliance leader Naomi Long argued that local parties should be concentrating on how to solve bread-and-butter issues such as the cost of living and health service waiting lists.
Lagan Valley, Upper Bann, East Belfast and North Belfast will be among the constituencies Long’s party will be targeting gains as it looks to solidify its position as a major force in politics in Northern Ireland.
However, while Alliance may be on course to a record number of votes, there’s a distinct possibility that it won’t translate to a huge seat gain as the party could narrowly miss out on the last seat in several constituencies.
Great day for the TUV?
The Traditional Unionist Voice looks set to join the Alliance in recording a significant increase in its vote share, likely at the expense of the DUP.
Like the Alliance, this may not result in a major seat boost as polls hint Jim Allister’s party could potentially suffer some narrow defeats.
While Allister is a well-known face in Northern Ireland politics, several of the party’s candidates were relatively unknown before this year’s election campaign.
However with the DUP failing to prevent the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol – as well as same-sex marriage and the introduction of abortion – the TUV is in prime position to woo disillusioned unionists with its hardline stance on these issues.
How will the SDLP fare?
After years of poor performance in Stormont elections the nationalist party will be looking to reverse the trend and increase its number of MLAs from its current count of 12.
Colum Eastwood’s party had a great outing in the last Westminster election, gaining two seats, signalling it has growth potential.
However, Eastwood appeared to play down expectations for his party as he arrived at the count centre in Magherafelt today.
He said that voters may have “lent” their vote to Sinn Fein.
This comes despite politicians from governing parties in this jurisdiction pitching in to help out. Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond both (separately) joined SDLP candidates on the campaign trail.
Labour’s Ivana Bacik and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin also travelled north to offer the SDLP their backing.
Additional reporting from Press Association
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