MOST VOTERS IN Northern Ireland do not consider the Protocol among their highest policy concerns when compared to other policy issues, a new opinion poll has found.

According to opinion polling conducted by LucidTalk on behalf of researchers at Queen’s University Belfast, the issue of top concern to most respondents (42%) among the six listed is the health service followed by the economy (31%).

Significant gender differences were found with female voters much more likely to rank the Protocol as their least important issue than men. 

However, in an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly, 82% of people said a candidate’s position on the Protocol would be important for them. 

It comes as talks intensify to try reach a deal on the border issue.

The UK Government and the European Union are still negotiating changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol, the arrangements aimed at preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland. 

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated that he would put any new deal to MPs House of Commons for a chance to express their views, risking a showdown with Eurosceptics on the Tory benches.

‘Starting point’

Professor Katy Hayward, from the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen’s commented that the results showed that it would take more than agreement on the Protocol to improve people’s lives in the region.

“This polling is a reminder that any UK-EU deal would be but the high-level starting point for improving people’s experience of the Protocol on the ground in NI.

“That experience has been largely shaped less by the Protocol’s direct effects than by the political reaction to it,” she said.

“Hence divisions in public opinion on the topic reflect different views on institutions, priorities and actors too.

“This underscores the significance of the wish of the majority, from across the political spectrum, to see ongoing UK-EU consultation with Northern Ireland on the subject.”

The latest research found that unionists, particularly committed unionists, are far more likely to rank the Protocol as a top issue of concern.

Significant gender differences were found when divided by gender as female voters were four times more likely to rank the Protocol as their least important issue (54%) than of most concern (13%).

Male respondents were split almost evenly – 34% rating the Protocol as of lowest concern, and 31% as of top concern.

Meanwhile, 65% think the Protocol is having a negative impact on political stability in Northern Ireland, and 58% think the same about its impact on British-Irish relations.

When it comes to handling Northern Ireland’s interests over the Protocol, the UK government is the most distrusted actor with 85% viewing it with distrust.

The Irish Government is distrusted by 46% and the most trusted actor is the business community at 56% trust.

Party backing

There are differences among unionists on the issue. 73% of TUV supporters, 55% of DUP supporters and 19% of UUP supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of most concern to them.

In contrast, a clear majority of Alliance (75%) and SDLP (76%) and 65% of Sinn Féin supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of least concern to them of the six listed.

Almost three quarters (73%) of respondents agree that the UK and the EU should commit to regular consultation with Northern Ireland stakeholders and political representatives on how the Protocol is implemented.

While just over two thirds of respondents (64%) agreed that the Northern Ireland Executive should be fully functioning regardless of what happens with the Protocol – almost a third disagree.

A majority (53%) of respondents view the Protocol, with grace periods in effect, as the appropriate means for managing the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland and 52% as overall ‘a good thing for Northern Ireland”, following a pattern found by the pollsters for the past two years.

Of the six policy issues listed – healthcare, economy, education, environment, transport, and the Protocol – just 8% of 18-24 year olds view the Protocol as the issue of most concern while 55% hold it as the issue of least concern.

The polling was conducted from 3 to 6 February 2023, before the events of the last ten days anticipating the announcement of a UK-EU deal on the Protocol.

A total of 1,498 people responded for the survey which was carried out by Professor David Phinnemore, Professor Katy Hayward, and Dr Lisa Claire Whitten at Queen’s University. 

For the full report and findings visit here.