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Professor Philip Nolan at this evening's briefing. Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

'Any increase in social mixing is incredibly risky': The key points you need to know from today's NPHET briefing

New research suggests there has been a “substantial increase” in social visits to homes.

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS have today confirmed 411 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland.

The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) also reported six deaths of patients with the disease, all of which occurred in March.

The death toll from Covid-19 in Ireland is now 4,687, and the total number of confirmed cases is now at 235,854.

The new variant has changed everything

Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the epidemiological modelling advisory group said we need to take into account the B.1.1.7 variant and how easily that transmits.

The reproduction number is currently estimated at between 1.0 and 1.3. 

He said if Ireland did not have the B.1.1.7 variant, the current measures for this length of time would probably have driven the R number down to 0.8

If the R number increased to 1.5, Nolan this could result in an additional 200,000 cases between 5 April and the end of September.

“Any increase in social mixing right now is incredibly risky,” he said. “But delaying eight weeks hugely attenuates that risk and will make a huge difference to us as a population. And it goes further than that, because as we vaccinate, cases don’t translate into deaths and hospitalisations in the same way as they do without vaccination.”

Professor Nolan said a delay of four to eight weeks in mixing would greatly reduce case numbers and hospitalisation numbers and the vaccination programme will begin more rapidly providing protection as greater supplies come into the country.

“In the course of May, June and July very very quickly indeed a huge swathe of the population receives their first dose, their second dose and becomes protected,” he said.

“If you think about, right now it’s all of our individual behaviour or efforts that are interrupting transmission of the virus. And that’s hard, we’re finding it really difficult, if you think about how it feels now.

“At the point when half the adult population are effectively protected by vaccination – and that will happen at some point in the course of the summer – it will only feel half as hard, we’re only gonna have to work half as hard to achieve the same level of suppression of the virus.”

Cases in mandatory hotel quarantine

Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Glynn confirmed that there have been “two or three” positive cases reported today in mandatory hotel quarantine facilities. He said he did not have any further information on the cases.

Keep it outdoors

The message from public health officials remains that people should keep their social contacts down as much as possible. Dr Glynn said those planning to meet others in the coming days should do it outdoors and in public areas like parks. He advised people to wear a mask if it is a crowded outdoor space.

Dr Glynn said we can and should be optimistic for an enjoyable summer but in the meantime we have to “continue to work together to prevent a further wave of infection as we accelerate vaccination across society”.

Professor Pete Lunn of the ESRI presented details of a survey which indicated there has been a “substantial increase” in home visits in Ireland that are for social purposes. He said there has been a “clear slippage” in adherence to restrictions.

The survey results indicate as many as 250,000 adults in Ireland every day are mixing in a home.

“At most of those meetings there are no masks involved, a lot of those meetings last more than an hour and in most cases people report it is not possible to completely maintain two metres social distance,” he said.

“We would see that as being the largest and most important behaviour change that we have recorded over the last period.” 

 

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    Mute Dara O'Brien
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:36 PM

    Ah here, ye’re just making stuff up now lads.

    You’re either immune or not – immunity is not job specific. If you need healthcare workers back regardless then just say it, there’s a danger that people will start picking things up wrong if you just keep making stuff up.

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    Mute daveyt
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 11:15 PM

    @Dara O’Brien: all they care about is the rosters in hospitals being filled, if a healthcare worker who has been infected and re-exposed via close contact (which is very likely) they don’t have to quarantine themselves for 2 weeks and the hospital can function as normal, no science behind it just ignorance

    98
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    Mute Seán O'Sullivan
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    Jun 4th 2020, 12:57 AM

    @daveyt: not exact science no but calculated risk based on science

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    Mute Sean Gallagher
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    Jun 4th 2020, 3:00 AM

    @Seán O’Sullivan: telling people they are immune is NOT a calculated risk. Either you have a scientific basis for saying it or not. If they do, then it extends to everyone. If they don’t it’s utter nonsense and should be withdrawn. Health care workers are just as likely to catch it on close contact as everyone else. They also happen to be more likely to come into contact with it.

    It’s utterly disingenuous to make it one rule for one and not for others. I sincerely hope the unions get involved at this point and call b*llsh*t as they should.

    This advice could endanger health care workers, their families and anyone else the come into contact with, including their patients.

    34
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    Mute William Bryan
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    Jun 4th 2020, 2:27 PM

    @daveyt: happened where I worked, positive result from one staff, the rest of ye keep working its a grey area

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    Mute a politicians promise is as good as a lie
    Favourite a politicians promise is as good as a lie
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:46 PM

    What a load of bollox..just like the 2, 5 and soon 20 km limits all makey up… To hear simple Simon on the radio when asked about should the 20km limit be skipped and allowed people travel everywhere he said he felt it in his gut it was the wrong time…. No scientific evidence to back these travel restrictions

    164
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    Mute Gavin Conran
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 11:02 PM

    @a politicians promise is as good as a lie: The 2, 5 and 20km limits are to contain clusters. If there is an outbreak during the 5km limit, then, if everyone is staying inside their areas, it should be contained and make the trace work a lot easier.

    This immunity thing though I cant make heads or tails of.

    65
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    Mute Martin Woods
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    Jun 4th 2020, 5:31 AM

    @Gavin Conran: but you can travel any amount of kilometres to work so that throws your thinking out the window

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    Mute John Doyle
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    Jun 4th 2020, 8:08 AM

    @a politicians promise is as good as a lie: “no scientific evidence” did you not read that he feels it in his gut?

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    Mute ValerieSP
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    Jun 4th 2020, 6:34 PM

    @a politicians promise is as good as a lie: really? How do you know the Scientific evidence or perhaps you are in fact a Scientist in which case your comment just might be viable

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    Mute ValerieSP
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    Jun 4th 2020, 6:38 PM

    @a politicians promise is as good as a lie: what’s with the Simple Simon?? Not nice and unhelpful

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    Mute Anthony Whelan
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:56 PM

    Just now on the tonight show Prof Paul Moynagh (maynooth) says tests should have cost €15 each . Our boys (who some think are playing a blinder) are paying €200 per test.

    88
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    Mute Daniel Dunne
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 11:01 PM

    @Anthony Whelan: It’s easy to spend other people’s money when you’re the government.

    67
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    Mute Cormac Laffan
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    Jun 4th 2020, 7:11 AM

    @Anthony Whelan: It’s the same crowd we booted out of office, doing the same thing we booted them out for.
    #OurLivesMatter

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    Mute Daniel Dunne
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:59 PM

    Clever coronavirus knows if you’re a healthcare worker or not. It also knows if you were protesting on Monday or not. Magic.

    66
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    Mute Lydia McLoughlin
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 11:08 PM

    And this is why the general population will start to do their own thing.. making it up as they go along!

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    Mute Adam Conroy
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    Jun 4th 2020, 12:12 AM

    This makes no sense. Are they just making this stuff up as they go along?

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    Mute EvieXVI
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:44 PM

    Enough already!!! The immune system of healthcare workers is the same as that of non-healthcare workers. Please stop treating people like idiots.

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    Mute Isabel Oliveira
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    Jun 4th 2020, 12:35 AM

    Yeah .. if only healthcare staff lived 24/7 in hospitals and couldn’t infect the community and patients if only they had magical powers not to fall ill and suffer themselves . What in the name of Christ is wrong with the CMO, the HSE and the government ? Criminal !

    35
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    Mute Martin Harte
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:44 PM

    Acting the fu€k now so they are

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    Mute Joe
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:56 PM

    WTF

    43
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    Mute Oracle Steve
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 11:13 PM

    Pure clowns

    36
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    Mute Kartz
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    Jun 4th 2020, 9:50 AM

    So in Ireland, the CMO has discretionary powers to decide who can become immune and who cannot!

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    Mute Davy MacIomhair
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    Jun 4th 2020, 8:16 AM

    Absolute horse sh!t. I’m a nurse, I know of more than one staff member who tested positive, recovered, then tested positive a second time and was considerably sicker second time round.

    19
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    Mute Gill James
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    Jun 4th 2020, 3:33 PM

    @Davy MacIomhair: I wonder if Covid 19 perhaps behaves in the same way that Borrelia aka Lyme disease sometimes does. Goes to ground in the body’s organs and is then no longer detectable in the blood – regularly shapeshifting and creating a biofilm to evade the immune system , so that even after extended oral antibiotic treatment and a subsequent blood test which proves negative – waves of various symptoms recur and sometimes to a serious degree for years.

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    Mute joan kelly
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    Jun 4th 2020, 1:23 AM

    The world and his mother has gone nuts

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    Mute Agenda21
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    Jun 4th 2020, 2:59 AM

    @joan kelly: gone to hell in a hand basket

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    Mute 8-Bit-Relic
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:45 PM

    *hust*bullshit*hust*

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    Mute William Bryan
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    Jun 4th 2020, 2:25 PM

    Heard it all now as a Health care worker, this alarms me but now the grey area is explained, Health care workers are now deemed as collateral damage, they are really clueless, BTW only have sex with one close contact, Tony says

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    Mute Noel Healy
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    Jun 3rd 2020, 10:43 PM

    Christ!!!! The cracks are showing with poor old Dr Tony. So healthcare staff aren’t part of the general population now? The old power has his brain fried.

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