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IN RECENT WEEKS, the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has attempted to use tangible examples to back up its core messaging for people to reduce the number of contacts they have to help prevent further spread of Covid-19.
At last night’s press briefing, HSE West director of public health Dr Breda Smyth outlined how socialising emanating from one couple led to 30 confirmed cases of Covid-19.
The couple – aged 25 to 35 – went on a trip away and, when they returned, they attended a house party with eight people in attendance. Six of these people were later confirmed to have Covid-19. The couple then stayed overnight with a family and a further three people caught the virus.
On the next day, one of the couple met another group of friends for a dinner party in the town centre. All four people at that party subsequently tested positive for the virus. Six people at a table adjacent to them also got Covid-19. Four members of staff at the bar/restaurant got Covid-19.
The person later attended drinks with another four friends, all of whom later tested positive.
In another example cited, 15 students in a university tested positive after mingling during a break time. Another outbreak of 24 cases began in a small rural area and led to three family clusters, and three schools and one workplace being affected.
“This virus is very unpredictable,” said Dr Smyth, adding that measures in the restaurant from the first example were adhered to. “It’s very hard to define how it passes from one person to another.”
NPHET meets today and as Dublin and Donegal are currently at Level 3 of virus restrictions, and other counties are edging toward that possibility, let’s take a look at where the figures are at in Ireland right now.
Cases
The headline figure announced each day by the Department of Health is the number of new cases in Ireland.
Last night, a further 429 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Ireland.
The number of total confirmed cases in Ireland now stands at 36,155.
After cases in June and July had been relatively low, the spread of Covid-19 began to increase again in August before rising sharply in September.
Comparing figures from the end of September to the start of it shows how rapidly the situation has changed.
In that month alone, over 7,000 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed.
In the past fortnight to midnight on 29 September, there were 4,384 new cases of the virus. In the previous two weeks, there had only been 2,524 new cases of the virus. And at the start of September, there’d only been 1,577 cases in the previous 14 days.
This gives us a national 14-day incidence rate of 92.06 per 100,000 population in Ireland. This almost tripled since 1 September, when this figure was 33.12 per 100,000 population.
Nearly half of the cases in the last two weeks – 2,083 – are associated with clusters or outbreaks such as the case of the couple mentioned above. Just over half – 1,169 cases – have been identified as community transmission – where it cannot be identified precisely where someone got the virus. Public health officials have urged people to reduce their contacts to help mitigate this spread.
A quarter – 1,077 people – of the cases in the last fortnight have been in people aged 15-24.
There’s been a further 790 cases (18%) in people aged 25-34 and 644 cases (14%) in people aged 35-44.
Almost one in every 10 – a total of 423 people – confirmed to have Covid-19 in the past two weeks are aged 65 or over.
In 2,626 of the cases (59.9%), the person had no underlying clinical conditions. In 1,178 (26.87%) of the cases, however, they did have an underlying condition. In a further 580 cases, it was not known whether the person had an underlying condition.
At last night’s NPHET briefing, Professor Philip Nolan said that positive signs had been observed last week but this was now being undermined by the high number of cases this week.
He said: “That means that a very large number of cases, close to 400 each day, reported over the last four days is bringing up the average [and this] is a cause of particular concern. So that optimism that I had in my mind towards the end of last week – I’m so much less optimistic today.”
Alongside the rise in cases, the number of deaths in people with Covid-19 has also increased in the past month with 27 more people confirmed in September to have died with Covid-19. Public health authorities will be hoping that that this number can be kept as low as possible in the coming months.
Where are these cases?
Unsurprisingly, given they are both at Level 3 of restrictions, it is Donegal and Dublin seeing the most worrying numbers at this time when it comes to Covid-19.
In the past two weeks, 2,147 cases in Dublin has brought the 14-day incidence to 100,000 population to 159.3. This has tripled in the space of a month.
Donegal has the highest incidence per 100,000 in the country with 211.1. To put that in context, this figure was just 20.1 on 1 September.
The next highest incidence rate is in Monaghan, which has had a 14-day incidence rate of 133.6. Roscommon is next on 102.3.
A number of counties have incidence rates in the 70s and 80s, such as Cork (81.2), Galway (73.2), Kildare (84.9), Longford (73.4), Louth (76.8) and Wicklow (72.3).
Leitrim (12.5), Kerry (19.6), Tipperary (24.4), Carlow (28.1) and Sligo (29) are seeing the lowest rates at present but, as demonstrating by the sharp rise in Donegal, it doesn’t take long for cases to spike significantly and cause new restrictions to be introduced.
Data last week had hinted at some stability in the figures, but further increases this week remain a cause of concern, particularly for Dublin according to Professor Nolan.
He said last night: “There’s a very precarious situation in Dublin, where we thought we were beginning to see stability, and about two or three days of higher than expected case counts. And there’s a continuing increase across the rest of the country.
I’m not going to single out any counties on this. The picture is much more general, that very broadly across the country, in most counties, we are seeing increasing incidence. And in some other counties, we’ve seen increasing incidence which has been brought back under control by the actions of the people in those counties and by the actions of the public health departments supporting them.
Testing
Alongside the increase in the number of cases, we’re also testing people a lot more than we had been.
In the last seven days, there have been 88,365 tests completed. In the past week, 3% of all tests have been positive. The total number completed in the last day is 13,247.
This has risen significantly since August when the government was criticised for the slowdown in its testing and tracing system. On 19 August, 55,129 tests had been completed in the previous seven days with 4,339 in the past 24 hours.
The HSE has sought to recruit more testers and contact tracers to try to prevent a testing backlog building up.
According to HSE data, the average turnaround time from your referral to your appointment is 0.6 days. It also takes a further average of 1.4 days from having your swab taken to a test result being delivered from a lab. It means a person waits for two days on average from their first referral to getting a test result.
It’s also taking an average of 2.3 days to complete all the calls when it comes to contact tracing.
Hospitals
After remaining low even when cases started to significantly rise again in August, the number of people hospitalised with Covid-19 has begun to rise again.
As of this morning, there were 122 people with Covid-19 in Irish hospitals.
According to HSE figures, the five hospitals with the most cases were all located in Dublin with the Mater (22), Beaumont (15), St James’s (15), Tallaght (11) and Connolly (9).
Earlier today, there were 20 people with Covid-19 in an intensive care unit. Again this is rising when the number was consistently in single figures until September.
Yesterday, there were 274 adult critical care beds open and staffed in Irish hospitals. 236 of them were occupied and a further 22 beds were reserved for patients. It means that any further Covid-19 surge is likely to put huge pressure on hospitals, although it will be hoped this can be offset with the extra beds promised under the Winter Plan.
NPHET is meeting today to discuss all the latest developments with Covid-19, and consider if any fresh restrictions are needed as they monitor data from around the country.
The data points to worrying trends that NPHET must try to tackle.
Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn summed it up last night: “I would liken it to a forest fire where we’re seeing lots of embers, lots of small issues arising in different places around the country. If this continues, we’re going to have a national issue. And I’m really, really appealing to people to pay heed to the public health advice.”
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So sad and may he rest in peace. Scary how many elderly people have been involved in fatal crashes over the past year…
As was Grace Kelly.
Sick puppy.
Totally uncalled for. May the poor man rest in peace and condolences to his family and friends.
So sad that a life was lost and while it doesn’t clearly state his driving was the cause of the accident, I do believe that persons over a certain age should be assessed every two years on their driving ability for their sake and others on the road. R.I.P x
They say young drivers are bad, they need to put an age limit on driving, old people are a death trap on the roads, it’s prob a good thing that other car wasn’t a young family he could have wiped out
Well said Elaine!! im a proffessional driver and i see more bad driving from elderly everyday, they should sit there test yearly after 65 no excuses its going on too long!
Maybe you should find out what happened first before you jump to conclusions about bad driving.
As my Granny used to say, ‘Trouble on someone’s door’. Terribly sad news for his family. A few have commented already around the age of the victim. In fairness I have seen all age groups driving dangerously on our roads. But at the same time, it is a fact that our spatial awareness diminishes as we grow older and that is a risk on the road. This is why we don’t allow 10yr driving licences over a certain age and that renewals must be accompanied by a doctors report where necessary. I’m not saying age was a causing factor in this poor mans death, but it could be, depending on what caused the accident. In the same way when you hear about a younger person dying in a car crash, there is often an assumption of speed involved. Hence higher insurance premiums. The bottom line is that we still have shocking road death statistics for all age groups. This doesn’t seem to be changing. That is the biggest tragedy of all.
Totally agree jenster terrible tragedy and also i was speaking generally of older drivers for what i personally see everyday and what should be done to prevent more of this tragedy happen again!!
Absolutely Gary. And if you are on the road working each day, you will naturally be exposed to the driving patterns of different age groups so you are certainly in a position to be able to comment on it from your experience. I know of an older lady who took the side off a car driving up a street (as well as her own) but I’m not sure she was aware she had done it. Even speaking to her days or weeks after. She left the scene so I assumed she didn’t realise until the Garda knocked on her door giving her a right fright! She was off the road then. Not because she was forced mind you but because her confidence wouldn’t let her. She was scared by what she had done unknowingly. The confusion and lack of spatial awareness that comes with older age is very scary. Never mind throwing a car into the mix…
As an American who has driven that road when coming over to visit it is a tough road. Please allow me the chance to apologize to everyone who went around me because I went so slow but with many roads you need to be on your toes and aware of your surroundings at all times. My deepest prayers and thoughts with the families and I am sure God is watching over him with love.
He was still somebody’s father and grandfather!
May he rest in peace
while it very sad that this man has lost his life, i have to go along with other poster here in respect of elderly drivers. i see elderly drivers everyday who can bearly walk or read a newspaper in front of them ,yet they get into a car and drive. if they have problems walking how can their legs be strong enough to operate a brake pedel in an emergency, let alone their reaction times. you will also see elderly drivers ‘park ‘ in the middle of the street because they cant monouver the car into a space due to failing spacial awarness, the biggest problem is in rural areas, there is not a regular or decent public transport system and little or no hospital transport for them to use. whats the point of giving the over 70′s a free traval pass then not providing the transport links?.
driving licences should be reviewed every 2 years once you reach retirement age (65) and every 12 months once you reach 75 yrs old, as part of the review a full eyesight test should be carried out and also a ‘simulated’ reaction test . only if you pass these tests should you them be allowed to drive.
65 is young and my eye sight is perfect had my eyes tested 2 weeks ago and i could read the bottom line i would concider it an insult to 65 year olds to have to do some test just to keep those who believe that 65 is old speak from experience or shut up
frank , im in my mid fifties myself and have eyetests every year, its not an insult at all its a precaution, there are a lot of people out there driving who dont bother with eyetests, using the same glasses that they have had for years, so long as they can see the telly they think its grand. eyesight and reactions deteriate as we get older most of the time those changes are small and we dont really notice, at least with regular check ups you know if you were safe to drive or not . when you have your regular eye check up they could issue you with some sort of certificate to say you were ok to drive (using glasses if required) you then forward this on to your insurance compony ar local authority and your covered for the next 2 years. better safe than sorry frank.
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