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Sasko Lazarov

Here's why NPHET believes Zero Covid wouldn't work in Ireland

Health officials have said there are many similarities between their approach and the proposed strategy, but the differences are important.

A GROUP OF scientists and academics yesterday launched a campaign calling on the government to adopt a Zero Covid plan.

We Can Be Zero has said a change in strategy is required if Ireland is to avoid a fourth lockdown.

The Zero Covid plan would mean having “zero mystery cases”, the group has said, with strong control measures to prevent new cases coming into the country and a robust system to track any cases identified.

We Can Be Zero says this should be implemented using ‘The 3 Cs’; crush, control, chase.

Crush means aiming to suppress Covid infections during the current lockdown to fewer than 10 cases per day, ideally to single digits or lower.

“The government also doing its part with support and logistics and knowledge sharing,” the group said.

“Why this number of – fewer than 10 cases per day? This low number of cases means that the contact tracing system can function; it can hunt those few cases down and contain them, aiming to eliminate them as well.”

Control means preventing new cases coming into the Irish community with mandatory 14-day quarantine for international travellers.

Chase means a variety of actions required of citizens and of the government and health service:

  • Reduce the spread by wearing masks at all times when outside of bubbles, wash hands and ensure good ventilation indoors;
  • Track and trace all cases aggressively – a measure contingent on keeping daily case numbers below 10;
  • Better resource public health physicians and enhance coordination of the test and trace infrastructures;
  • Introduce regional ‘green zones’ to protect Zero Covid areas;
  • Financially and socially support people affected by self-isolation and businesses interrupted by restrictions put in place to manage clusters of infection;
  • Continue the vaccine roll-out.

At yesterday’s briefing by the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET), Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said there are many “eminent colleagues” who are advocating this policy and officials have given consideration to this approach.

“There is an awful lot more in common with what we do, but there are some important differences,” he said. “And I think we would highlight those difference rather than be dismissive”.

The first issue with implementing this strategy, he said, is that Ireland is part of the European Union, “economically, socially, legally, culturally”, and this union is designed to provide for the free and easy movement of people, goods and services.

“It is very different to the kind of experience in the countries that are at a distance from other parts of the world, and have been able to achieve [this], countries like New Zealand and Australia and there are plenty of other examples too,” he said.

“The epicentre of this infection has been in the northern hemisphere in Europe and in North America and we’ve had a very significant challenge right across Europe since the very beginning of this pandemic wit very large levels of infection.

Dr Holohan said it is “just not realistic” to expect that Ireland could have a “completely sealed border” not least because of the movement of people to and from Northern Ireland for work. 

He said he recognised that the Zero Covid approach does not presume that there would be no importation of disease, but it does require a more robust public health system than Ireland currently has.

“There is a presumption that we have a public health system that is lightening quick in terms of its ability to really pick up, at a local level, those importations when they occur, stop them becoming established as localised transmission and the progressing on,” he said.

“We don’t have features in our public health system that are sufficiently robust enough to enable us to have that level of confidence, such that we could say to the population honestly ‘you can go back to your normal activities’.”

Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the epidemiological modelling advisory group, and Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Ronan Glynn also pointed out some similarities between NPHET’s approach and the Zero Covid strategy.

Nolan said there is a “common objective” to bring case numbers to a very low levels, to minimise the risk of importation of new cases or new variants, to empower and resource local and regional public health departments, alongside an “impressive central contact management system” and to roll out a vaccination programme.

However he said given that we cannot reduce the risk of importation to zero, “we individually are always going to be the first line of defence for this and until such time as we have appropriate levels of immunity in the population we will be required to make sacrifices”.

Dr Glynn said there is a need, for the current strategy to work, for “a strong, intelligence-led public health response”, integrating various data points with more minute detail on transmission and outbreak settings at a local level.

One of the main aims of NPHET’s approach, he said, is protecting the most vulnerable and “ensuring that we level up and give additional resources” so that they are shielded from Covid-19.

“A key part of that over the coming months as we roll out the Covid vaccines will be to ensure that that vaccine is provided to those who are most vulnerable across society and that they have access to it and access to the necessary information to make informed decisions about receiving that vaccine when it’s offered,” he said.

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82 Comments
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    Mute Honeybadger197
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:40 PM

    Good to officially thank the Choctaw people. I spent some time travelling in the Navajo Nation ( parts of Utah, Arizona, New Mexico) they are proud peoples who still face huge social & economic disadvantages.

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    Mute Incognito
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:42 PM

    @Honeybadger197: It’s nice to see there’s at least one thing we can agree on HB.

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    Mute Honeybadger197
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:48 PM

    @Incognito: I’m sure there’s plenty more we can agree on.

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    Mute Anthony Gallagher
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:46 PM

    @Honeybadger197: thats another feather in your cap ,

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    Mute Honeybadger197
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:23 PM

    @Anthony Gallagher: Not really. There are parts/ communities in the Navajo Nation that appear to belong in some third world country. It’s frightening. Spectacular part of the world but if you want to understand endemic poverty, social alienation, cultural oblivion, and a genuine dearth of hope you should go here. There are of course communities there that have fought hard to sustain, adapt and relatively flourish. I spoke to many very friendly, interesting people, but will never forget the sense of loss i experienced there. I could be very wrong, maybe my own preconceptions have informed this. As i said they are a proud people who, more than any other in America, deserve better.

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    Mute Pat Bateman
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:49 PM

    Well done Leo. Great to formally thank the Choctaws for the kindness they showed to us in our time of need. The scholarships are also a great gesture.

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    Mute mark carroll
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:54 PM

    @Pat Bateman: idiots

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    Mute Craig Gibbs
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:16 PM

    @mark carroll: Who are?

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    Mute Brian Scallan
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:34 PM

    @Craig Gibbs: The Carroll Clan mayhaps?

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    Mute John Fahy
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:42 PM

    Leo, how about coming home and dealing with the record 714 people on hospital trolleys instead of massaging your ego

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:00 PM

    @John Fahy: no matter what anybody, anywhere is ever doing there’s always something better they could be doing. Why weren’t you helping the homeless instead of commenting?

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    Mute David Forde
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:07 PM

    @John Fahy: save up your shillings and go private! Blackrock has a new A&E.

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    Mute Fergus Sheahan
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:07 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe: cause he’s too busy grooming his marvellous moustache

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    Mute Sean Stevenson
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:12 PM

    @John Fahy: he’s off thanking a historical friend of the Irish state, do you think he could overhaul the HSE, provide severance packages to all the overabundent admin staff, and cure the nation in the week he’ll be abroad? Ffs.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:16 PM

    @John Fahy:
    Former Minister for Health.
    Leo ‘Cmon, I’m only the minister for health, I don’t run the bloody health service’ O’Varadkar.

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    Mute Father Hody Commody
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:28 PM

    @Sean Stevenson: FG have had almost seven years, and go month to month creating new records for homelessness and people on trollies. FFS is right.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:31 PM

    @Fergus Sheahan: commenting and grooming at the same time is the most worthwhile of endeavours, I’d like to retract my earlier comment.

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    Mute Paul Jennings
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:53 PM

    @John Fahy: and no paragliding off the Tallahatchie bridge.

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    Mute Sean Conway
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:56 PM

    @John Fahy: It’s getting to get worse. take to the streets and block the entrance to the dail until somethings done is the only way forward. because they don’t take us serious.

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    Mute John Fahy
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:14 PM

    @Sean Stevenson: this is a job for the President who, lets face it, has nothing better to do. The Taoiseach’s job is not to represent the country but to run it.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:44 PM

    @John Fahy: this is a promo tour. It’s a good thing, also he was invited. Are you saying he should reject an invitation from the White House?

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    Mute mur
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    Mar 13th 2018, 12:57 AM

    @Sean Stevenson:

    perhaps he is hoping their medicine man will cure our ills .
    no problem with him thanking the natives but will he have the liathroidi to follow it up by telling trump he is in possession of their robbed land and return it to them , and he will pay back apples tax to him .
    now that would be sincere and not just window dressing . he has a lot of front pages to get onto to beat our other global poser Enda Kenny as Taoiseach.

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    Mute mur
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    Mar 13th 2018, 1:07 AM

    @John Fahy: “The Taoiseach’s job is not to represent the country but to run it.”
    he is running it ! into the ground.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:57 PM

    Socktaw meets Choctaw.
    Have to say, that sculpture is wonderful.

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    Mute Tony Murphy
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:44 PM

    The native Americans did more for this country than the current government is doing right now. Hospital waiting lists higher than ever, more homeless children than ever, vulture funds and banks waiting in the wings to evict people en mass. You enjoy your holiday Leo, you and your cronies have destroyed this lovely little country.

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    Mute andrew
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:45 PM

    @Tony Murphy: Strategic Choctaw Unit

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    Mute Richard Brady
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:34 PM

    @Tony Murphy: All very true Tony.

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    Mute Dave Doyle
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:47 PM

    The SCU in action wit a “good news story”. Meanwhile 714 people languish on trollies in hospital corridors and vulture funds are now going after those in rental accommodation and evicting them without any regard for the laws of the land.

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    Mute Derek
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:30 PM

    @Dave Doyle: yawn…. but well done on getting two original topics yet to be mentioned in one comment on any article or comments section on The Journal in the last 6 minutes .

    A: Hospital trolleys

    B: Homelessness

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:14 PM

    Anyone else notice how the more Leo’s hairline recedes the more he’s starting to resemble Michael Noonan.

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    Mute Nuala Mc Namara
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:26 PM

    I think this is a nice gesture and scholarship a great idea.I haven’t seen that sculpture in Cork,it looks fantastic.
    However we genuinely have “fellow human beings suffering and in distress” in modern Ireland affected by homelessness,housing health emergencies,1.2m in deprivation &consistent poverty doubled,etc
    .The trolley crisis is leading to unsafe conditions in hospitals,even in 2015 when numbers on trolleys were lower consultants were calling overcrowding in hospitals”death zones” and now at record high.There are children waiting years for counseling, children in severe pain with spines deteoriating affecting breathing,babies born into homelessness with delayed development according to medical staff,etc

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    Mute Catherine Sims
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:40 PM

    @Nuala Mc Namara: Well I suggested this scholarship the other day on this very journal . So Leo either saw my post and stole the idea or I’m fecking psychic . Either way I called it lol

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    Mute Nuala Mc Namara
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:49 PM

    @Catherine Sims: I remember that, Catherine!

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    Mute Derek
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:57 PM

    @Nuala Mc Namara: with an growing aging population and hospitals already full to capacity it can’t be solved in a day or a year. It will take multi million euro large extensions to wards (land space permitting) which could take a year to build, with 3+ years before hand for the consultation process. This will be required across the country in every hospital which isn’t always feasible. On the other hand, doctors and nurses under intense pressure may send people home too early to free up beds, only for conditions to worsen at home and people end up back in again looking for a bed again. We need more hospitals but who’s going to pay and staff them? Are we going to build a free home for everyone on housing & homeless list before or after this? The country is still austerity with massive debt.

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    Mute Nuala Mc Namara
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    Mar 13th 2018, 9:20 AM

    @Derek: FG pledged to tackle trolley crisis in 2011.But during the following years austerity cuts impacted significantly on healthcare with €2.7B of HSE cuts,12,000 less HSE staff,a 21,000 inpatient drop and 30,000 day case drop between 2012-2014,loss of 2m home help hours and €100m cuts re costs of drug repayment scheme.All this with a growth in population of 173,613 from 2011-2016!
    Now the trolley crisis & hospital overcrowding,crisis, hospital waiting lists crisis,etc developing into emergencies!In Oct’17 there were589,000 on hospital waiting lists & trolley crisis & hospital overcrowding at worst ever levels & we heard in 2016 that home care cuts saw ” off- loading” of patients into hospitals,etc.
    These are severe consequences of austerity policies.yet at the same time there were companies not paying full 12.5% Corporation tax rate!
    Also Prof Mody said the FG Gov could have fought for significant changes to FF/Troika deal thereby reducing austerity measures & impact from same.
    Look logically at some solutions of the now National Emergency in Health that could be done even before providing extra beds which should be top priority::
    1)Adequate increase in home help hours and carers supports needed.
    During the last storm for example older patients keep in hospitals because of concerns re home help supports,etc.If adequate supports at home any health concerns would be tackled before getting worse for example.
    2)Delay in tackling hospital waiting lists can results in patients conditions getting worse and presenting at A&E,leading to overcrowding then surgeries& procedures cancelled to tackle overcrowding crisis then problem keeps repeating!
    I think part of Slainte Care is more community based care&GPs doing more tests& procedures.More public health nurses needed to assess vulnerable groups in their own homes,etc.
    3)There are units in hospitals unable to open because of lack of nursing staff so increase in pay needed for nurses and those doing nursing training courses in University could be given incentives to stay in Ireland for eg 2 years.That would lead to less agency nurses which is so expensive.Units already there would open and make work environment easier.Therefore less patients on trolleys and less ops& procedures cancelled.
    4)Sometimes people dont know when to attend GP re signs &symptoms,re children,etc:some delay going to GPs,some go too often,etc so why not once off publish booklets re health care re children,elderly,etc,etc for every household that would give clear guidelines on when GP visits are a neccessary or what can be done at home including lists of various local supports & agencies in each area including mental health supports eg support groups.
    These are just a few solutions.:preventative,local supports,home supports,health education, incentives for nurses to stay after training and present nurses to stay,etc!

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    Mute mark carroll
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:53 PM

    Leo only helping himself as usual .get him out .

    72
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    Mute wattsed
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:58 PM

    The visit is a nice gesture indeed. He’s also extended an invitation to some UK ministers to visit the border area of Ireland South and North, that “hands on” and see for yourself is something he strongly believes in.
    Pity he couldn’t take a day out soon and visit Beaumont and Tallagh A & E departments and see for himself the conditions both staff and public endure, daily. How on earth this country attracts and retains junior doctors, nurses and other medical workers beggars belief.
    Go for the whole day Leo, unannounced, without your entourage and stay there for a 14 hour shift. Then extend your appreciation to them in a similiar fashion you are doing Stateside, Brussels etc etc.
    And then fix it, time isn’t on your side.

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    Mute Féach News
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:44 PM

    Was anyone else thinking the Choctaw Chief would be a little less Gary and a little more Indian?

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    Mute Chief
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:06 PM

    @Féach News: Yes

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    Mute Joe Hill
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:14 PM

    Indian thanks Indians…

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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Mar 12th 2018, 6:50 PM

    Any excuse for a junket.

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    Mute tismeself
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:01 PM

    @Michael Maher: every Irish leader goes to America at this time of year. I can’t stand the man but this is no different to the rest of them going abroad.

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    Mute Ted Murray
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:08 PM

    @tismeself: ___ Not to mention a large contingent of local councillors and hangers on, with big queues in the duty-free there and back.

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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:09 PM

    @tismeself: I agree its annual a junket by all political parties.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:10 PM

    @tismeself:
    Leo’s been spending a lot of time Stateside since his boyfriend moved there.
    Nice when the taxpayers can pay for his trysts.
    Clever Leo.

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    Mute Michael Knight
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:29 PM

    @David Sinclair: Ah so it’s his orientation you have a problem with? Catholics are so transparent.

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    Mute Father Hody Commody
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:30 PM

    @David Sinclair: The boyfriend is due home shortly.

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    Mute tismeself
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:35 PM

    @David Sinclair: so that’s your problem.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:37 PM

    @Michael Knight:
    Boyfriend, girlfriend, wife, partner. Well done for missing the point.
    FREEBIES.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:46 PM

    @David Sinclair: try even conveniently moved St Patrick’s Day to suit their schedules. Oh wait no, you’re just talking shit again.

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    Mute KingBen
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:32 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe: if I was a bully like you I’d call you out on you spelling and grammar. But I’m not so I won’t.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:45 PM

    @KingBen: aww, poor snowflake. What happened to the mic drop? Pick it up again for another withering retort? Good for you. Keep on trucking kiddo

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    Mute roscommonman
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:25 PM

    Anything for a photo opportunity, I’m so sick of this smarmy chancer.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:39 PM

    @roscommonman:
    And people thought Bertie was the teflon don?

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    Mute Insider at RTE
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:07 PM

    The Choctaw. A great bunch of lads.

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    Mute Johnny Merren
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:39 PM

    Well done Leo you got the Choctaw vote and the photographs, Whats your next photo opportunity going to be, smiling ☺ with Trump as you give him a jam jar of shamrocks ☘???

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    Mute David Clarke
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:42 PM

    Can not stand the man and even though he looks on it as good PR it was still a great/ right thing to do. Instead of Ross getting almost 200 thousand for a new hockey field for a school which already has three maybe we should do this more often.

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    Mute Bi88les
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:11 PM

    I wonder what happened to that $170?

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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:15 PM

    @Bi88les: Now who would fiddle charity in Ireland,

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    Mute Derek Fehily
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:04 PM

    I’m surprised they couldn’t see that cowboy coming

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    Mute Catherine Sims
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:41 PM

    Well I suggested this scholarship the other day on this very journal . So Leo either saw my post and stole the idea or I’m fecking psychic . Either way I called it lol

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    Mute wattsed
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:03 PM

    @Catherine Sims: Catherine, the SCU – they’re watching every comment on here. This is how they get to work out the Government’s policy, strategic decisions and popularity. And you thought there were highly paid experts doing this ?
    Fair play to you for suggesting it tho !

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    Mute Kate Flaherty
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:12 PM

    @Catherine Sims: I was thinking about you earlier when I was reading it, #Leo gets inspiration from his minions!!

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    Mute Catherine Sims
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:30 PM

    @wattsed: well if this form keeps up I’m going to start believing in my own propaganda lol

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    Mute Kevin Tyrrell
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:46 PM

    Ooooohhh…Leo might be in trouble with his best buddy Justin Trudeau…inviting Choctaw Indians (sorry native Americans) to Ireland so we can steal their culture. Justin will be screaming “cultural appropriation….cultural appropriation”…Leo Leo Leo…you haven’t been keeping up with your required SJW reading material have you???

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    Mute Tony Kennedy
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:37 PM

    Twould suit the failed minister for health to be here. Silly silly person that he is . He has to be ousted . Enough is enough

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    Mute prop joe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:53 PM

    Fair play , Indians stick together.

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    Mute Maurice Dodd
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    Mar 12th 2018, 11:21 PM

    he admitted he had no clue what the Kerry babies episode was about
    And I’m sure he had a puzzled look on his face as he thanked these people

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    Mute Colm Feighery
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    Mar 12th 2018, 11:17 PM

    They helped with the famine, maybe they have a few spare hospital beds….. For the current crisis?

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    Mute Tony Kennedy
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:47 PM

    The Choctaw nation are Indians

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 7:52 PM

    @Tony Kennedy: no, Leo’s dad is Indian and from an entirely different continent.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:08 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe:
    Dave, I know what tribe you’re from Dave.
    The Patronizing Git tribe.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:15 PM

    @David Sinclair: still trying to spread lies? Still trying to convince people that the girl that Jamie carragher spat o was the one recording the incident? Moron

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:24 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe:
    Stop victim blaming.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 9:47 PM

    @David Sinclair: when did I blame the 14 year old girl? It was Jamie’s fault entirely that he spat on her (the victim) but her father (not the victim) was also in the wrong for using a mobile phone while driving.

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    Mute David Sinclair
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:31 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe:
    Yeah, and women are wrong for walking down dark alleys.
    The narrative on that thread was that the driver was more culpable than Jamie Carragher and you bought into it Dave.
    Have to say I’m totally shocked at you….don’t know why (probably because you’re normally so Puritanical)..but I am.

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    Mute Stephen Coveney
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    Mar 12th 2018, 11:36 PM

    @David Sinclair: off to your safe space now david, you are getting worked up.

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    Mute Dave O Keeffe
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    Mar 12th 2018, 8:10 PM

    @Floyed Pink: the government said the population will increase by one million by 2040. You know how that works right? It’s called sex, I’m pretty sure you’re unfamiliar with it.

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    Mute Maurice Dodd
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    Mar 12th 2018, 11:22 PM

    @Dave O Keeffe: it’s called immigration

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    Mute Amy Wallis
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    Mar 13th 2018, 6:58 AM

    Nice idea, but where exactly is the money for this scholarship coming from?

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    Mute Dara O'Brien
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    Mar 12th 2018, 10:25 PM

    Ah jaysus, this will confuse the hell out of the racists !!!

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    Mute mur
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    Mar 13th 2018, 12:58 AM

    leo has the same shape nose and dimples as the chocotaws !!!!!

    the plot thickens

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    Mute Daisy Chainsaw
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    Mar 13th 2018, 1:48 AM

    @mur: As the thick are plottin’

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    Mute Joseph Delaney
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    Mar 13th 2018, 8:27 AM

    The Choctaw Nation, a great bunch of lads!

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