IF THE OMICRON variant proves to be much more infectious but less impactful, then it could create a “new horizon”, Taoiseach Michéal Martin said.
When re-introducing restrictions recently, the Taoiseach told the public that the government couldn’t take a risk on the unknown with the new variant, stating that more data was needed over the coming weeks to assess the situation.
However, scientists involved in a study published by the University of Edinburgh this week said that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of hospital admission compared with Delta.
New research from Imperial College London has indicated that people with PCR-confirmed Omicron are 15-20% less likely to need admission to hospital, and 40-45% less likely to require a stay of one night or more.
Writing for The Journal earlier this month, Immunologist Professor Christine Loscher said experts are hopeful that this variant may cause milder illness which may translate into less incidence of hospitalisation and ICU admissions, however, she said the sheer volume of potential cases might make this completely irrelevant and we may see hospitalisations and ICUs climb regardless of it being milder.
“A small percentage of a big number is still a big number. We also don’t have definitive information about what infection looks like across a range of age cohorts and across different vaccine status, so there’s still a lot we don’t know,” she said.
The booster programme will provide the best defence in minimising the impact of the surge, she added.
When asked by reporters about a scenario where Omicron proves to be more contagious but less virulent and whether it might be our exit from the pandemic as it would allow us time to build up mass immunity through infections and vaccines, Martin said:
“Some people have put forward that view but I’m not expert enough, to be frank, to say that definitively and we know Omicron has actually re-infected people who’ve been infected before with Delta, which opens up the horizon of potential reinfection into the future.
“The key issue would be severity, you know, in terms of if it’s much more infectious but less impactful. That could create a new horizon – a new scenario – for the future.”
The Taoiseach said lessons have to be learned from past actions, stating that next year the country will be in a much stronger position.
“My sense is that, if you look back over the last 12 months, vaccination has really been the big game changer. Do we really think we’d be open today in terms of retail, construction and everything else if we had 4,500 cases or 5,000 cases and no vaccination?
“So, to me, it is the big game changer. So therefore doing a booster now. I know already Europe is already preparing a potential new dose or new vaccine for variants. That work is underway with the companies.
“One could be looking at an annual vaccination programme. I know the HSE are looking at a sort of stronger independent capacity that they can switch on and switch off vaccination programmes around this issue. We have antivirals coming on stream that will, hopefully, lead to better treatments.
“So I think we’re going to get better at dealing with it. That’s how I see us coping with Covid into the future whilst allowing our full economy back,” said Martin.
The Taoiseach said the economy “has come roaring back” since March, but he said the government needs to be cautious.
“We have to be careful of that too because a lot of that energy was captured or suppressed by the Covid restrictions. There’s also a level of stimulus in terms of the European-wide stimulus programme and a lot of inflation has come through that but, nonetheless, the manufacturing side of our economy has been very strong and there’ll be a lot of domestic demand for quite a while,” he added.
“So we are in a much better position from that perspective than we would have been without vaccinations. You have advances in medicines for 2022. I’m more optimistic even though the current situation doesn’t reflect that,” he said.
When asked if he is hopeful that this will be the last big wave before we start emerging from the pandemic, the Taoiseach was reluctant to give false hope but said he is optimistic.
“I’m loath to use that language but, certainly, I’d be more hopeful than not that we’d be getting better at this. I just don’t have the data to be definitive about the surge,” he said.
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