LAST UPDATE | 24 Feb 2022
LAST NIGHT RUSSIAN authorities issued a ‘NOTAM’ or ‘Notice to Airmen’ closing Ukrainian airspace to commercial air traffic. This was the last moment in the preparation for a full invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops.
The choreography for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been quite protracted and very overt. Russian troop concentrations on the border with Ukraine began in late 2021 with no attempt to conceal or mask the fact that the units involved were tank regiments, artillery and highly mobile armoured units – of the type specifically suited to a massive, rapid ground incursion.
On Monday, after signing a Treaty of Friendship with the Peoples Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, Vladimir Putin ordered the first phase of the invasion of Ukraine. He ordered Russian troops across to border to act as ‘Peacekeepers’ and to reinforce separatist forces facing the Ukrainian military along the Ukraine, ‘Line of Contact’ – a front approximately 200km long.
This morning, with commercial air traffic cleared from Ukrainian airspace, a wider invasion of Ukraine commenced. The first phase of this campaign is the air offensive. In a universal template – used by NATO in the invasion of Afghanistan and by the US and her allies in the invasion of Iraq – the air phase will consist of waves of air strikes and missile strikes throughout Ukraine.
The Russian objective here is to neutralise and dominate Ukrainian airspace. The missile strikes will target Ukrainian air defence assets such as missile batteries, along with aircraft and army command and control centres.
The Russians have struck targets from Lviv in the west of Ukraine, to the capital Kyiv and as far east as the port of Mariupol. The targets will include Ukrainian military headquarters, logistics, transport and ammunition depots.
In striking at these targets – often in densely populated urban environments – civilian casualties will be inevitable. There are already reports of civilian deaths in Ukraine.
Whilst this air and missile campaign continues – in waves of attacks over the coming days – the ground offensive has begun. The Russians’ immediate priority will be to locate, engage with and destroy all Ukrainian military positions along the ‘Line of Contact’ within Luhansk and Donetsk. President Putin has explicitly ordered the concentration of force in this area as a ‘special military operation’ in Donbass.
The separatist-held areas now reinforced by Russian tanks and armour will be the forming up point and start-line for the ground invasion. As I write, Russian forces are using heavy artillery to shell Ukrainian border posts and military positions before their troops move forward. As was the case in Chechnya and Georgia, the Russians will hope for a rapid – and brutal – armoured advance supported by infantry configured in ‘Battalion Tactical Groups’ or BTGs.
Putin has demanded that Ukrainian forces to “put down their weapons and return to their homes”. He has also stated that any ‘interference’ with Russian operations will result in immediate ‘retaliation’.
This is an indication that a state of war now exists between the two states – with full combat operations and the indiscriminate use of force to follow.
If the Ukrainian military hold their positions and fight in Luhansk and Donetsk – which they have vowed to do – there will be conventional combat in the region with heavy loss of life, of a kind and on a scale not seen in Europe since World War Two.
Given the numbers of aircraft and troops that Russia have deployed to Ukraine, it is likely that Putin will seek to smash through Ukraine’s defensive ‘Line of Contact’ and push the Ukrainian military west to a line running north-south from Kharkiv to Dneipr.
The Russians will also take the port city of Mariupol and other towns such as Sloviansk, Severodonetsk, Kramatorisk, and Pokrovsk. The Russians will be hoping for a rapid advance – as was the case in Georgia.
Ultimately, at this point, it would appear that Russia intends to create a permanently occupied ‘buffer zone’ in Eastern Ukraine – from the annexed Crimean Peninsula and north into Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbass region.
Such an outcome would mirror Russian territorial gains after their invasion of Georgia in 2008. In that case, the Russians mounted a rapid, overwhelming invasion which lasted just ten days or so. They then withdrew to consolidated defensive positions and continue to occupy 20% of Georgia’s original territory as a ‘buffer zone’ between Russia and Turkey – one of NATO’s largest military partners.
Putin’s strategy is a risky one. For now, Russia has seized the initiative and is shaping events on the ground through a provocative act of war. However, as Russian units manoeuvre westwards through populated areas, there will be major civilian casualties and an acute refugee crisis with hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons fleeing west.
Russian units may also be bogged down in engagements with some Ukrainian forces that are well dug-in and supplied with NATO weapon systems. Unlike Georgia, there is a risk that this invasion will be more protracted with significant loss of life on both sides.
US intelligence sources have suggested that Putin will not stop at an occupation of Donbass and is intent on regime-change in Ukraine. At this point, it is difficult to estimate the precise ‘limit of exploitation’ of Putin’s war aims.
It is clear however that Russia has sensed a perceived weakness in the EU and NATO. Putin has called Europe and America’s bluff.
This war will test European values in a manner not seen since the 1940s. The war will test the resilience and strength of the transatlantic relationship between the United States and Europe.
The risks associated with Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine are grave. For now, all sides to the conflict will do everything in their power to avoid a direct confrontation between NATO and Russian forces – an interaction that would risk triggering a world war.
However, unlike the invasion of Georgia, Ukraine appears determined to resist the Russian invasion. The Russians will enjoy initial spectacular successes and will seize territory – but risk being drawn into a war of attrition with the prospect of repeated Ukrainian counter-offensives. This would place the Russians in a protracted and costly war scenario – ironically, of the type experienced by NATO in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Therefore, in the coming weeks and months, there will be huge international pressure for cease-fires – some prompted by humanitarian catastrophes and the inevitable civilian casualties that will be a consequence of this invasion.
Putin may – for strategic reasons – agree to a temporary cease fire. However, if he is successful in this endeavour, Russia may well accelerate its hybrid operations and extend them to the Baltic States.
History tells us that appeasement is not a successful political strategy in Europe.
The challenges and risks of escalation are enormous. Ireland must use its position – as a neutral state – to be the voice of reason and leadership at the UN Security Council.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in TU Dublin. You can follow him on Twitter.
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