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The Explainer: Is Ireland heading towards another recession?

This week we discussed how different a possible recession could look compared to the post-2008 downturn.

SOME ECONOMISTS IN recent weeks have been warning that Ireland could bee on track for another recession.

The last recession in Ireland, which followed a banking crisis and housing crash in 2008, devastated the country, but there was a sense that real recovery was happening before the Covid-19 pandemic arrived.

This, coupled with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and a cost of living crisis, has made for grim reading in the business headlines lately.

So what are the factors behind this speculation about another recession?

This week on The Explainer we spoke to Stephen Kinsella, Head of the Economics Department at the University of Limerick and Chief Economics Writer with The Currency, to get some insight.


This episode was put together by presenter Michelle Hennessy, producers Aoife Barry and Nicky Ryan, with a special thank you to Emer Moreau and Stephen McDermott.

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    Mute Padraig O Muirthile
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    Jul 28th 2022, 5:54 PM

    Don’t worry about a recession. Everybody in the world needs food and Ireland are one of the world’s leaders in Agritech. With astute governmental foresight we will invest in and nurture this industry rather than… Oh right. Along came Éamon.

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Jul 28th 2022, 6:13 PM

    @Padraig O Muirthile: Don’t try and make out like Ireland feeds the world. Our agri exports are aimed squarely at the 1% who can afford high quality, high cost produce.

    The world won’t starve without Irish grass fed beef.

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    Mute Padraig O Muirthile
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    Jul 28th 2022, 6:23 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: I once read a statistic that something like 40% of the people in the world have a product made by Kerry Ingredients on their table. Our food technnology sector is amongst the leaders in the world in finding better and cheaper ways to feed people.
    We make the raw ingredients for baby formula used all over the world. From Irish grass fed cows.

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Jul 28th 2022, 6:27 PM

    @Padraig O Muirthile: You once read an entirely false statistic.

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    Mute Padraig O Muirthile
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    Jul 28th 2022, 7:28 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: https://www.kerrygroup.com/annual-report/download-centre.html

    Page 5 there on the Annual Report has an update. Actual consumers of 1.1 Billion. My information was out of date. They will have 2 Billion consumers by 2030.

    The 1% being showered with gold leaves for their caviar?

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Jul 28th 2022, 7:59 PM

    @Padraig O Muirthile: For starters, 1bn is closer to 12% of the population – not 40%

    Secondly, Kerry Group has operations in 50 countries with the majority of it’s Global food ingredients sourced outside ireland so to insinuate that irish produce reaches 40% of the world’s population is wildly inaccurate and quite ridiculous.

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    Mute Padraig O Muirthile
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    Jul 28th 2022, 8:13 PM

    @Lee King Buckett: No. Just outdated. The ingredients market has massively increased in competition and choice.
    And what is your point aboit multinationals being different? Exporting the pollution to another country is a zero-sum game. It just makes you look and feel good and a poorer country look and feel bad. You haven’t changed anything. Just swept it under a carpet.

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    Mute Finnster
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    Jul 29th 2022, 8:20 AM

    @Padraig O Muirthile: lee doesn’t like correct information

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    Mute Finnster
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    Jul 29th 2022, 8:21 AM

    @Padraig O Muirthile: well said sir

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    Mute Lee King Buckett
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    Jul 29th 2022, 10:41 AM

    @Finnster: What part of the incorrect information was correct?

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    Mute The CFC Standard
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    Jul 28th 2022, 5:25 PM

    A GDP recession yes, and if it’s mild (only a small rise in unemployment) and it brings inflation back towards a moderate 2%…it may not necessarily be a bad thing, believe it or not.

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    Mute Eoin Roche
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    Jul 28th 2022, 5:28 PM

    @The CFC Standard: 100%. Starve a fever, feed a cold.

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    Mute Fr. Fintan Stack
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    Jul 28th 2022, 5:34 PM

    Well when you read the likes of this, you can see who the recession will affect, the great unwashed, not the big boys and girls of Centrica.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0728/1312725-bord-gais-energy/

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    Mute François Pignon
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    Jul 28th 2022, 10:32 PM

    So long as there isn’t another famine!

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    Mute Don
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    Jul 28th 2022, 8:32 PM

    Recessions are triggered by increasing rates which causes unemployment and debt defaults. The only thing which might keep a lid on rates is the drive to net zero emissions, which might ultimately reduce fossil fuel use and inflation. This will require massive levels of debt is impossible with high interest rates.

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