Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
THE TYPE OF weather event that caused the ‘Beast from the East’ five years ago may potentially bring snow to Ireland in late February or early March.
A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which occurs when temperatures rise rapidly in the stratosphere well above the earth’s surface, is capable of causing a spell of cold weather in northern Europe.
In February 2018, a SSW event combined with Storm Emma brought heavy snow and cold winds across the country. Temperatures dropped below zero, reaching nearly -10 degrees Celsius, while snowfall reached heights up to 60cm.
Sudden stratospheric warming was also responsible for the ‘Big Freeze’ in December 2010, which brought significant disruption to day-to-day life.
Now, a major SSW event is forecast to occur over the next week, with around two or three weeks of lag time before the impact would be felt in Ireland.
Met Éireann Climatologist Paul Moore explained that major SSW events increase the chances of cold weather but don’t guarantee it.
In a statement, Moore said that global weather models “can usually forecast, quite accurately, what is going to happen in the polar stratosphere 1-2 weeks in advance, so the upcoming SSW event is highly likely”.
“Forecasting how a SSW event imprints on the tropospheric weather patterns below is much more difficult to resolve, especially prior to the SSW event itself,” he outlined.
“Therefore, for now, it is unresolved how the upcoming SSW event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. The timing for any impacts, if they do occur, will likely be towards the end of February or the beginning of March.”
Up in the air
Meteorologists in Ireland, the UK and elsewhere in Europe are closely monitoring the situation.
The UK Met Office expects there is more than an 80% chance of a major SSW event occurring.
Paul Moore of Met Éireann explained that the SSW event occurs “where the zonal winds at the 10hPa level (approximately 30km high) and at 60° North reverse from westerly to easterly and the temperatures in the stratosphere over polar regions rise significantly in just a few days”.
“It usually takes 2-3 weeks for a major SSW event to have an effect on the tropospheric circulation below because it takes time for the easterly zonal winds to descend through the stratosphere,” he said.
He outlined that every SSW event is different and not all of them disrupt tropospheric patterns, pointing to an SSW event in January 2019 that did not affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe.
The SSW event in February 2018, however, caused “major disruption to the tropospheric patterns below and led directly to the colder than average temperatures in Ireland during February and March 2018, including the very cold outbreak from the east culminating with storm Emma at the end of February and beginning of March 2018″.
Meanwhile, the weather forecast over the coming days is mostly mild with some patches of rain.
Tomorrow is due to be “rather dull” in the morning with low clouds and spots of drizzle but brighten up later in the day, with highest temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees Celsius.
Sunday will bring a “cloudy morning with some drizzle in place, becoming mainly dry for the afternoon”, Met Éireann forecasts, while Monday will be “dry with a mix of cloud and sunny spells for most, however cloudier conditions with a little drizzle may affect easter and southern counties”.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
‘Government wants to know how much the clean-up bill for Storm Emma is going to cost’
the taxpayer.
@David Sinclair: As opposed to who David, given taxes fund public spending?
@David Sinclair: as opposed to who David does minister Murphy have a money tree out the back of Dáil Éireann that he shakes in case of emergency.
Just clarifying things in case the message fails to get communicated.
@Tom Harpur: Yes they seem to be able to find copious amounts of money when they want to!
@David Sinclair: bad weather damages infrastructure and requires capital investment. They might have to bring forward some repair work. This needs forecasting, what’s the big deal?
I must say though I have extra respect for all the farmers now who helped dig out the more isolated roads. Spare a thought for them when there’s a late start to spring and they need support to feed their livestock.
Not as much as cleaning up the tidal wave of corruption that besets this once fine nation!
On another matter I see the comments on Anglo Irish Banking enquiry into Siteserve and other matters has already been suspended!
@Jarlath Murphy: Shallow and tired click-bait. Ata boy Jarlath.
@Jarlath Murphy: All aboard the censorship. No one is allowed to question the slurping activities of the fat pigs at the trough.
@MK76: Yet you felt compelled to respond?
Shallow and tired, like the hackneyed
Strategic Communications Unit Mess?
@Patricia McCarthy: They have their pathetically sad sycophantic acolytes defending their excesses, as they wat in solemn servitude for an opportunity to slurp at the trough!
Sad specimens!
@Jarlath Murphy: Ah, sure that’s more of it now Jarlath. Yaaaaaaawn.
@MK76: while pretending not to care you still feel compelled to respond?
@Jarlath Murphy: Just trying to help someone who is clearly craving attention Jarlath. The content of your messages are utter tripe, but maybe you’re just lonely.
@MK76: Your concern is touching, perhaps I can move in with you?
@Jarlath Murphy: when was it a fine nation?
@Jarlath Murphy: Couldn’t listen to your empty rhetoric and opaque political musings, but there’s someone for everyone, so hang in there.
@MK76: They say there’s a match for a beetle and you’ve clearly found yours!
In the meantime I hear they are planning on rebranding the Strategic Communications Unit.
Can you confirm?
@Ohhh_reeally: Before you clearly!
@Jarlath Murphy: How would I be able to conf…….wait a minute….
Jarlath, you rascal you. You’re intimating I’m somehow part of FGs communications unit, because I’m calling you out for your moronic posts.
You’re as clever as you are original. How are you still single?
@MK76: What you mean your not on the pay roll!
How disappointing!
For you!
@MK76: AK47 does a lot of yawning but can’t seem to just close his bullying gob for its own absence of sense defending this joke of a government, nit picking as usual while ignoring all the other articles on the journal; Macabe,spin and the hse mess. Go off to sleep you must have insomnia worrying about your peacock Leo. Say goodnight to @Frank Murphy for me ;(
@Jarlath Murphy: Rebranding SCUT? No. I hope not. It should remain as SCUT. Strategic Communication Unit Trolls.
Such an appropriate title.
@MK76: AK47= moronic yawn
@Declan: There you are Jarlath. Declan and yourself seem like a match made in heaven.
@MK76: Don’t worry, you got to believe that there’s someone for you!
Just hold on in there, you may end up with a rich bankster, a bulging pocket full of water options and a very short cough!
Alternatively you may even get elected!
@Patricia McCarthy:
General Independent Managerial Processors
Not sure what that will be shortened too?
They don’t wanna be asking The Gardaí how much it’ll be, figure they’ll get back would be either 76trillion euro or a fiver
We pay taxes. Deal with it.
@Tony Joyce: ‘HOUSING MINISTER EOGHAN Murphy today expressed his appreciation for the “whole-of-government” support during the severe weather last week.
While he acknowledged the situation is not over for everyone around the country, the minister told his Cabinet colleagues that the management of the cold weather conditions “went to plan”.
He should get a t shirt with a hand slapping his back. It woudl save him having to do it himself all the time. Does this guy ever stfu about how good he and the govermnemt are?
Didn’t cost a penny in my estate r any estate I’d say as no council worker to be seen…ah we have to keep the main roads etc our number one priority…surely they could provide more resources/funding for estates so people can get around and get about…
@Gareth Fitzpatrick:
Alternatively you could set up a resistance committee and buy a few shovels. There is no law against getting up off your arse and doing something to contribute
@Nick Allen:
Residents*
@Nick Allen: I and most of the neighbours that were young enough all did that…your smartarse comment is really appreciated..
@Nick Allen: I and most of the neighbours that were young enough all did that…your smart comment is really appreciated…
@Gareth Fitzpatrick:
Then what are you moaning about?
@Nick Allen: are you for real?? I’m so called moaning because why isn’t there enough resources for the council to do more I’m lucky enough to have a job…if they where given more funding they would be able to clear roads in estates so people Can get around…why should residents have to do it all?? I’m far from lazy but surely it would be under there job remit to do more locally??
Gov ain’t worried about how much their spin unit costs, not worried about how much their expensive 2040 and similar launches cost, not worried about how much their own advertising and self promotion costs, but worried about how much support they have to give out to the plebs after the storm and how much that’s going to inconvenience them.
After their spin unit failure and resultant bad publicity, gov wants to appear to be more honest with the public now, but the leopard doesn’t change it’s spots, their response will be to try harder to fool the nation!
The incompetent gov don’t seem to worry how much it’s gonna cost when it comes to their own salaries, very generous expenses, exorbitant pensions, extra payments for appearing on various gov committees, and ridiculous compensation packages.
Mattie McGrath TD and his family were out all during the snow clearing roads and helping stranded drivers with their heavy equipment at their own expense . Its great to see a politician talking the talk as well as walking the walk.
@Naoimh Ó Murchadha: lol dont kid yourself. A bill will go to the council. TDs arent in the charity business and the machinery and operators dont work on fresh air.
@Naoimh Ó Murchadha: He mustn’t have been able to get out to any funerals.
@Naoimh Ó Murchadha: Yes I heard about that because he and his organisation made danm sure to put out plenty of photos and social media updates about it. Meanwhile lots of ordinary people did stuff quietly and without a fuss.
have your say