IN IRELAND, ALL elections – Dáil, Seanad, presidential, European and local – are decided through proportional representation with a single transferable vote (PR-STV).
Voters indicate their first and subsequent choices for the candidates on the ballot paper by marking the relevant number in the box beside a person’s name.
By doing so, you are instructing that your vote be transferred to your second preference if your first choice is either elected with a surplus of votes over the quota or is eliminated.
If your second choice is elected or eliminated, your vote may be transferred to your third choice, and so on.
Many politicians will be dreaming of being elected on the first count, but it can be a long wait for others.
For example, current Taoiseach Simon Harris didn’t meet the quota and was elected on the 15th count in the Wicklow constituency in the 2020 election, while former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar had to wait until the fifth count.
“Simon Harris and Leo Varadkar barely scraped in yet both become the Taoiseach,” wrote one user on X in recent months.
“Harris scraped through on the 15th count, without reaching the quota,” remarked another.
“Harris didn’t reach the electoral quota in his own constituency after no less than 15 counts, how is he a fit person to lead the country as Taoiseach if his own constituency didn’t trust him,” said another.
So is there any legitimacy to such claims, that an election in the later counts is in some way lesser than being elected on the first count?
“It’s very misleading,” says Gail McElroy, a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin.
She told The Journal that it doesn’t matter what count you get elected on.
“You get elected or you don’t,” said McElroy, “it’s not even a conversation which count you get elected on.
“It’s a very disingenuous debate and is irrelevant and misleading.”
When asked about former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar being elected on the fifth count in 2020, McElroy said: “Varadkar got over 19% of the vote, one in five people in that constituency voted for him.
“He got elected second and he was very few votes short of a quota.
“It’s particularly disingenuous in the case of Varadkar because he had a good performance for an incumbent Taoiseach and was popular in his constituency.
“For example, in Dun Laoghaire in 2020, no one was elected until the sixth count, so you can’t even compare across constituencies, or even within constituencies.”
McElroy said the same logic applies when a candidate is elected without meeting the quota, as was the case for Simon Harris in 2020.
“You’re the last standing candidate and you did well,” said McElroy.
“It depends on the distribution of the vote, how many candidates are running, all of those sorts of things, but when a candidate is elected it’s absolutely legitimate.”
Michael Gallagher, Emeritus professor of political science at TCD, said similar.
He told The Journal that there is “really no validity” in the claims.
“The order of a candidate’s election isn’t significant,” said Gallagher.
“One candidate might just exceed the quota on the first count while being unpopular with all the other voters, while another might be clearly on course for election from the start and with wide support from a range of voters, even if some way short of the quota on the first count.
He added that there is “no validity in inferring that a TD elected early in the count is somehow more popular, or has a stronger mandate, than one elected on a later count”.
Meanwhile, the PR-STV means that political parties have to carefully divide up their constituency if they wish to get two party candidates elected.
For example, Independent Ireland candidate Thomas McEllistrim took the unusual step of putting out an advert with the Kenmare News in Co Kerry asking for voters to consider him as their second preference.
Independent Ireland candidate in Kerry Tom MacEllistrim with an add in today's Kenmare News looking specifically for a number 2 vote. Has anyone ever seen a political ad that wasn't looking for a number 1 or next highest preference??? @kerrytodayrk
— Jerry O'Sullivan (@jerosullivanRK) November 22, 2024
@electionlit #GE24 pic.twitter.com/R93lz5Dt14
This strange request might have been an attempt to gain the surpluses of Kerry brothers Danny Healy-Rae and Michael Healy-Rae, who themselves published a map of how their supporters should cast their votes in order to maximise the likelihood of the two being re-elected.
McElory told The Journal that while such vote management is “very difficult”, Irish parties are “very sophisticated at it”.
“It’s very impressive,” said McElory, “but you need a lot of information about voters’ preferences and the distribution of their preferences.
“How much of a vote will leak from one candidate to the second candidate within a party is very complex.”
She noted that it is easier to divide up some constituencies than others.
“For example, in a big constituency like Carlow-Kilkenny, a party could simply choose someone from Carlow and another from Kilkenny and kind of manage the vote that way.
“A party could also have a code of conduct and ask candidates to concentrate their canvassing in certain areas of the district, but it is a complex and tricky thing to manage.”
McElroy added that parties will be wary of under or over-nominating candidates.
In 2020, Sinn Féin under nominated candidates and McElroy remarked that the party “didn’t realise there was a vote surge”.
On the other hand, if a party were to over nominate candidates, they may have similar first preference votes but none elected.
“A party might run three candidates, they are reasonably equal and none of them get elected, but if you ran two, you might even get both of them in,” said McElroy.
“But the parties are on the ground doing informal polls to get a sense of that long before the official campaign starts.”
Elsewhere, McElroy said that while no electoral system is immune to strategic voting, it is difficult for voters to do so under the PR-STV system.
“It’s not impossible, and some people are very informed and sophisticated, but strategic management of the vote by parties is probably a bigger issue,” said McElroy.
While some parties will deliver literature suggesting one-two in one direction in one part of the constituency, and the reverse order in other areas, McElroy warned this comes with potential pitfalls.
McElroy pointed to an example from the Northern Ireland Assembly Election in 2003, which also uses the PR-STV system.
In an attempt to gain a seat from the SDLP in the Assembly elections in west Belfast, Sinn Féin ran five candidates in the six-seater constituency.
But the decision backfired and ended up contributing to the DUP’s Diane Dodds being elected – it was the only time a unionist has been elected in that constituency.
“It’s tricky and you’ll never have perfect information on voters,” said McElroy, who added that another factor is that many voters make up their mind during the campaign.
“Around 80% of people say they make up their vote on the day,” said McElroy, “so it is an imperfect information environment.”
McElroy also remarked that while some voters will follow party instructions, many others will have “strong rules of their own”.
“Strong party voters are more amenable to that message, but the reality is that upwards of 50% of Irish voters are voting on the basis of candidate, rather than party.”
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