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CSO to investigate 'discrepancy' of 84,000 homes in official estimates of private rented market

The CSO will examine why such a gap exists between Census figures and the RTB’s data.

A “DISCREPANCY” OF approximately 84,000 homes between different state bodies’ estimates of the size of the private rental sector will be investigated by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The CSO hopes to shed light on how there is such a gap between its data and that of figures held by the Residential Tenancies Tribunal (RTB) on the number of households renting from a private landlord.

The Oireachtas Housing Committee is due to discuss the issue this afternoon, with the CSO, the RTB and an expert on the sector to outline their findings to date as politicians aim to achieve a “full picture” of the private rental market.

According to the CSO, it has recorded 330,632 private rented homes whereas the RTB has 246,453 registered tenancies in its 2022 data. It amounts to a difference of 84,179 homes. 

The inconsistency means it’s “unknown” whether the rental market is growing or shrinking, a housing researcher and lecturer will tell politicians.

According to Dr Michael Byrne, of University College Dublin’s school of social policy, social work and social justice, the discrepancy is likely due to tenancies going unregistered with the RTB.

All landlords are required to renew the registration of their tenancies to the RTB. Since 2022, they are required to do so on an annual basis.

The Journal reported last month on how only a fraction of renters had claimed their Rent Tax Credit, with Sinn Féin’s housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin pointing to the requirement for a tenancy to be registered with the RTB being a barrier for many tenants.

Byrne is also due to say that it is possible that some approved housing body (AHB) tenants are “mis-categorising” themselves as private tenants when completing the Census.

AHB tenants live in homes that are owned by charitable or voluntary bodies.

According to the Census, this figure is at around 1,000 homes.

“Due to discrepancies between RTB and CSO Census data, the current size of the private rental sector (PRS), and whether or not it is growing or shrinking, is unknown,” Byrne will tell the committee.

“Further research is required to address this uncertainty as it has crucial implications for policy.”

From his own research of clients who contacted renters body Threshold, he found that 52% of tenants are not registered with the RTB.

This “suggests that non-registration is a significant concern”, according to Byrne’s opening statement to the housing committee.

RTB concern

Director of the RTB, Niall Byrne, is due to tell the committee that he is concerned about the discrepancy and welcomes the CSO’s upcoming analysis of the figures.

“We share the concern of the committee that there are differences between the RTB’s registration data and the figures published by the CSO from the 2022 Census. We have been engaging with colleagues from the CSO on this matter since July,” his opening statement outlines.

Cormac Halpin, senior statistician for the Census, is due to appear before the committee to outline the work the CSO will undertake to discover the true number of private rental homes.

Halpin will TDs and senators that, “given the importance of understanding the discrepancies”, the CSO is proposing to undertake a “matching exercise” between the two organisations’ records to better understand the reasons for the differences between the published figures.

“It is possible that more informal letting arrangements, for example between parents and children, are captured in the census as private rentals but may not be registered with the RTB,” Halpin’s opening statement continues.

It’s expected the CSO’s analysis, which begins next month, will also reveal a geographical breakdown and more information on the characteristics of the households involved.

Cathaoirleach Steven Matthews said the committee wants to discuss the “scale of the difference” between the two figures held by the CSO and RTB.

“Members would like to hear a deeper analysis from the CSO and RTB on why this is the case and how their figures can be better aligned to give a full picture of the size and scale of the private rented sector,” the Wicklow Green Party TD said.

The growth in the private rental market has been tracked by the CSO, whose most recent Census found an almost 7% increase in households who rented from a private landlord, compared with Census 2016.

The 2016 figure was in turn a “more modest increase” of just over 1% of private tenancies reported in Census 2011.

Landlord ‘exodus’

Dr Michael Byrne will also question whether landlords are “fleeing the market” due to a lack of “accurate data” on the sector.

Changes in tax arrangements for private landlords have been flagged as part of the Budget in order to keep existing landlords in the market and attract new ones, Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien recently told The Journal.

Michael Byrne will tell the committee that while there has been much discussion of an ‘exodus’ of small-scale landlords, “it should be noted that the number of landlords leaving the sector is just one variable”.

“Even if many landlords leave the sector, the supply of PRS housing can
increase, either because landlords who are leaving sell their properties to new landlords, or because their exit is offset by new investment,” the lecturer will tell politicians.

His opening address adds: “However, in terms of official data it is very hard to assess the extent to which small landlords are indeed ‘fleeing the market’.”

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    Mute Gerard Carey
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    Oct 10th 2023, 6:08 AM

    Obviously Slum Landlord’s trying to stay under the Radar.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:11 AM

    @Gerard Carey: or tenants who request their landlord to stay below the radar so that the landlord can offer a lower rent to the tenant. Regulations cost money and the tenant will always be the one who pays for the cost of implementing the regulations.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:33 AM

    Oh right.. this is the tenant’s fault too. That never happens pal, tenants will take the regulations and their rights every time.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:49 AM

    So if you are a tenant and the landlord says rent is 1500 with the tenancy registered or 1000 without, then you would go for the 1500 option?

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    Mute Garth P
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:52 AM

    @: Horse

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:54 AM

    Let’s skip the hypothesis and stick with reality. No Landlord ever asked that question, and no tenant ever asked for lower rent in return for no rights. If you have tried to find accommodation in the rental sector any time in the last year or two you’d understand how ludicrous your assertion is. It does not happen.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 10:12 AM

    I am a landlord in the UK. I recently saw an increase in my costs caused purely by regulations. When the lease was renewed I passed these costs on to my tenants via higher rent. I explained to the tenant that I had to pay 1100 GBP per year for pieces of paper i.e. regulations. The tenants’ reply was ‘maybe we don’t need these pieces of paper and the rent could be lower’. I said they should take it up with their MP who voted for the increased regulations. I am also forced by law to have a six month fixed period when the lease is renewed. Neither I nor my tenants want it but…..regulations.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 10:31 AM

    Frankly, my dear… your stories about one time in the UK do not interest me. Even in the ‘example’ you gave, it’s a stretch to say the tenants are asking en masse for lower rent in exchange for no regulation. ..which was your inital position. It does not happen.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 11:02 AM

    Regulations cost money. Whether the tenant wants them or not, the tenant is the one who is paying for them. I have been a landlord for 19 years and own 3 properties in 3 countries. I sold up in Ireland because if regulations and rent controls. The statistics suggest I am not the only landlord doing the same….and the tenant is the one who pays. It is very easy to ask for more regulations, do you remember when a tenant had the choice to live in a cheap bedsit? That option is now removed and there is no cheap bedsit.

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    Mute P.J. Nolan
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    Oct 10th 2023, 11:18 AM

    Sorry but I’m going to back him up on this.
    I manage rentals and I regularly have tenants offer cash under the counter money, no lease, no paperwork. House in north kildare I could have walked out with just over €8,000 in cash from 3 different tenants.
    It’s a sign of how bad it is.

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    Mute
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    Oct 10th 2023, 11:20 AM

    At least you’ve changed positions from tenants being the driver of this scenario to them being the ones who pay the price regardless. Regulations are needed and are being brought in to help ensure people’s safety and security. Housing is too important to allow anybody with an extra property to let it out on their own terms with no regard for the welfare of the tenant. Those in the ‘my house, my rules’ camp need to move with it or move on. If they don’t respect the welfare of the tenant they should not be allowed let the house.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 11:27 AM

    @P.J. Nolan: Your last sentence says it all P.J… these are desperation measures. People just trying to secure a place because they have no other option and will settle for anything. Not people simply wanting to cut out regulations just to save the money.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 12:11 PM

    So your argument that all tenants are happier to pay a higher rent in return for more regulation. If that were true then nobody would ever drive a Dacia. It is cheaper because it doesn’t have many safety features like lane key assist etc. That is why they no longer have 5 star safety rating. Why don’t all drivers get the car with 5 stars? The answer is because it is more expensive. A straight forward question……Would you be happier to pay 300 EUR more for a fully regulated apartment versus one not fully regulated?

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    Oct 10th 2023, 1:23 PM

    My argument is the same as it was at the outset – your assertion that many of these tenancies are unregistered at the request of the tenants is not accurate at all. It’s an excuse for landlords to hide behind. A Dacia is still certified for the road so your analogy is wide of the mark. You also talk as if there are lots of options to choose from, ignoring the reality again that people are tripping over each other to find accommodation. Your question is moot.. there should not be any unregulated rentals on the market. That’s what this article is about….

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    Oct 10th 2023, 2:45 PM

    So you won’t answer the question….I wonder why.

    A Dacia (or any other car) can be on the road without NCT. People drive a car without an NCT therefore choosing to avoid regulation because it is cheaper. Why would this be different in rental property?

    The fact is regulation makes everything more expensive for the end user in all situations. Also in all situations there will be people who evade regulations as it is the cheaper option.

    In my case as a landlord if I can legally avoid any regulation I will do it. I have yet to have a tenant that says ‘yes please comply with that non compulsory regulation and pass the increased cost to me via higher rent’.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 3:52 PM

    I explained why I won’t answer your loaded question.. you are dancing around the truth. Obviously people prefer cheaper options, and where limitations exist they will have to sacrifice security/safety for the illegal cheaper option. That DOES NOT support or validate your assertion that tenants’ wishes are the reason for so many unregistered tenancies. Your NCT analogy of people not taking the NCT to save money is equally weak.. it’s an illegal option, like unregistered tenancies. And no, no tenant would put that sentence to you.. just like no tenant will ever say ‘please don’t register the tenancy so you can charge me less’.. because landlords don’t manage their properties based on tenant requests. That’s a ridiculous proposition as I said from the start.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 5:06 PM

    Yes tenants do ask for unregistered cash in hand tenancies to keep the cost down. Not alone am I telling you my experience of 19 years as a landlord across 4 properties (now 3) in which I have had more than 100 tenants but another landlord is telling you it happens. The NCT is a perfect example that you cannot deny. People will evade regulations to lower costs….not all will, but some will. They same “some’ who can be responsible for some of the discrepancies in the figures between the census and the RTB.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 5:29 PM

    So what percentage of the 84,000 discrepancy do you reckon is accounted for where the decision not to register the tenancy was made by the tenant? Seriously, you’re taking what might apply in a tiny number of in-situ scenarios where the landlord is strong arming the tenant to avoid their obligations and trying to apply that to blame tenants for landlords cutting corners. That’s quite despicable really.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 5:46 PM

    No I am not trying to blame anyone….just stating the facts. The fact is some of this discrepancy is due to tenants and landlords colluding to evade regulations for their mutual benefit. Extra regulations increase charges….if the landlord cannot pass on these charges they will sell up when they can. My own tenants would prefer these regulations are lowered but we are stuck with them.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 6:18 PM

    You didn’t answer my question… I daresay your tenants would have preferred the regulation without the increased rent ideally. However, if presented with the option, which should not happen, then they may feel coerced into opting for the lower cost. That’s not a decision to avoid registration and cannot be put on the tenant.. that’s bad landlords being bad landlords. But your initial point specifically said that tenants ‘ask’.. which implies it is their idea, now it’s ‘collude’. No tenants made the decision not to register the tenancy. That’s a landlord decision.

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    Mute Aidan C
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:09 PM

    @Gerard Carey: your right..very obvious.
    No one checks what properties are rented
    RTB doesn’t checkbits up to landlords to register.
    Tenants have no incentive to report the property to RTB
    DOH!

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    Mute
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    Oct 11th 2023, 12:29 AM

    It is pretty simple especially where the landlord and tenant know each other. Rent is 1500 if fully declared an all legal. Tenant or landlord suggests that the rent can be 1250 if the tenancy is not registered. In cases where the landlord thinks they can get away with that then the tenancy is not registered. Each party is at least 250 EUR better off the only loser financially is the tax man. If you think this is not a very regular occurrence you are very much mistaken and need to spend some time as a landlord.

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    Mute Patrick Connaughton
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    Oct 10th 2023, 6:45 AM

    Landlords taking cash only don’t know what the RTB is.

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    Mute no no no
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    Oct 10th 2023, 11:42 AM

    @Patrick Connaughton: the discrepancy could also come from wrong information. there are quite a lot of tenancies under the rent a room scheme which doesn’t need to get reported to the RTB but tenants might tick the wrong boxes by mistake making it appear as a regular tenancy when it’s not.

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    Mute John O Reilly
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    Oct 10th 2023, 7:37 AM

    Is there any chance the PRTB could sort out their website so than landlords could register and pay

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    Mute P.J. Nolan
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    Oct 10th 2023, 8:54 AM

    @John O Reilly:
    Government we sites are not always the most user friendly but the RTB version has a extremely poor reputation.

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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:34 AM

    @John O Reilly: Playing catch-up John?

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    Mute David Healion
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    Oct 10th 2023, 7:35 AM

    Is it illegal to not register with the RTB? Because I’m pretty sure its illegal to lie on a census form right?

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    Oct 10th 2023, 8:19 AM

    @David Healion: being illegal just makes it more fun

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    Mute Rose Sheridan
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    Oct 10th 2023, 10:09 AM

    @David Healion: it’s illegal not to tax your car. But you can keep driving till you’re caught

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    Mute Michael Costello
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    Oct 10th 2023, 10:18 AM

    @David Healion: don’t know about the legality of having to register with the RTB, but I think it is a requirement too if you are taking in HAP tenants and also if you wish to claim tax relief on mortgage interest you are paying on a rental property.

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    Mute P.J. Nolan
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    Oct 10th 2023, 8:59 AM

    I have tried 3 times to register a tenancy (it’s part of my job) but I get an email back that the tenant details I provide don’t match the department of social services files.
    That would be the details taken from their department of social services card…….

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    Mute Gerry Kelly
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    Oct 10th 2023, 8:51 AM

    Government agency not very efficient shock !!!
    Perhaps a pay rise would help

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    Mute Allo Allo
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:46 AM

    Yeah number of people renting is increasing so landlord count is increasing, but small landlords locked in at below market rent are leaving and being replaced by institutionals, hence the continual increse in rents, tax breaks for the smalls would help keep rents lower an improvement availability

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    Mute MartyMcFly
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:50 AM

    If it’s not made illegal not to register with RTB and also unless that’s actually enforced then what’s the point in these articles. We all know there are loads of landlords not registered and nothing is done about it.

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    Mute Osprey
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    Oct 10th 2023, 7:51 AM

    Gov’t wants to be in your affairs, while a great many of the governed take the route to avoid it and profit. CSO is the thin end of an almighty wedge in this instance and I expect gov’t will find a way to solve their problem, fast becoming the landlords’ legal problems.

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    Mute Paule Merriman
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    Oct 10th 2023, 10:31 AM

    Putting houses in other family members names. A very common practice. Taking out mortgage in boom times and putting in a child’s name . Letting it out and say nothing.

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    Mute Pato
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    Oct 10th 2023, 9:57 AM

    Just another of the many messes amongst our incompetent beaurocrats

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