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PROPERTY IN SOME parts of the country could rise by as much as 20% over the course of this year, according to a new price guide due to be published this weekend.
The Sunday Times Property Price Guide for 2018 will be published tomorrow and aims to provide an overview of the current state of the market in the country.
The guide states that property prices will rise by an average of 8% over the entire country and that almost all areas will see some increase.
The guide predicts across-the-board increases, except in Donegal where price falls are being predicted due to Brexit impacting on the number of buyers from across the border.
The guide states that Dublin estate agents are predicting price increases in capital of between 5-10% with some postcodes such as Dublin 4 and Dublin 12 could see price values rise by as much 15%.
A lack of supply is contributing to the steady increases in prices but the guide points to Dublin developments in Boland’s Quay, the old Cuckoo’s Nest pub site in Dublin 24 and Ardilaun Court in Raheny.
In Cork, property price increases are expected to rise by between 8-10% while house prices in Limerick city’s suburbs could rise by as much as 20% in 2018.
In Galway, a jump of 15% is being predicted over 2018 in Salthill and in the city with increases of 8% elsewhere in the county.
The price guide is compiled based on interviews, current prices and analysis of trends.
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The bubble continues to grow but not to worry the good oul taxpayer will be there to pick up the mess.
Keep going up I say ..just out of negative equity and into profit after 7 years of hell. ..I’ll be happy to make it someone else’s problem. .and off to Australia. .happy days
@Martin Ryan: Our banks are well on their way to repaying taxpayers and NAMA is coming out at a gain. The houses that were physically built during those years still exist and are housing citizens. We need more houses on top of what we have.
@Steve Austin: it’s only profit if you sell. Being in negative equity is not a problem unless you want to sell. For the majority they bought a home to live in long term. If you kept up your repayments on the mortgage you had nothing to worry about. I don’t understand why people are so worried about negative equity if they plan to stay in their home.
@Steve Austin: Check before you go as prices in Australia have gone up crazy.
@Tom Molloy: NAMA coming out at a gain only if you consider that they are repaying the principal but not any interest. Try getting a mortgage where you can do that. Also they mistimed the market and sold just as prices started to rocket.
@Sean: also NAMA acquired a huge write downs of 30% to 50% , and in some rare cases higher, on portfolios which include decent security and performing loans.
@Martin Ryan: Soft landing.
@Tom Molloy: Well I have not seen any return in my wage packet still getting ripped off with taxes.
@Tom Molloy: NAMA and the Banks repaying the taxpayer. That will never happen. NAMA write downs where 40 billion in 09. With interest at 5% that’s a 56 billion profit. Not a chance of ever getting that back. The banks where given 60 billion with 10 paid back it’s unlikely we will ever get even close to that amount. Ripping off the next generation of home buyers is not the solution. Only bankers and the Galway tent gang will benefit from government policy.
@Philip King: that’s not true Philip. Negative equity happens in times of recession, along with unemployment. “Selling” is a choice. Not being able to afford a mortgage, and losing a house while retaining a portion of an expensive outstanding loan is a very scary prospect. Pls don’t spread this opinion that things are simple. They are not.
@John Owens: like I said, it’s only a problem if you want to sell.
@Steve Austin: hey hey, well done, me too, off to have a good time somewhere as well.
@Philip King: I never mentioned profit..its my home not an investment. .if you can’t pay your mortgage and you owe more than house is worth you are in trouble no matter how you look at it ..for the next 10 years this country is fuc#ed..IMHO
@Steve Austin: read your comment. You mentioned profit.
@Martin Ryan: Eh, no! Not this time.
@Martin Ryan: If you bought a house 7 years ago how are you in negative equity that was the bottom of the market surely
The longer this goes on the more I’m convinced that the government just don’t want people owning houses any more.
@Trevor Beale: bingo!
They miss the glory days of when Ireland was basically a slave state in the 1800′s with the British landlords owning everything.
The next best thing – US private equity firms coming in and cleaning up all available properties, then keeping them off the market to artificially raise prices!
@Trevor Beale: While I understand thinking that way there is actually a much more simple answer. Ireland had the highest home ownership rate in the world. When we started moving in line with other economies that rate was always going to have to drop.
FF/ FG Are complicit in creating a poor class, They use them to clean and paint their multiple homes.
it will crash again before 2020. and the government will say that didn’t see it coming
@David Cullen: For a crash to happen there needs to be an oversupply. It will take way longer to meet demand than 2 years let alone an over supply.
@Kal Ipers: According to Census’16 total housing stock grew by just 8800(0.4%) between 2011-2015 compared to growth of 225,232 dwellings between 2006-2011!
I presume that house prices also go up if housing stock limited?
@Kal Ipers: there doesn’t need to be an oversupply. Any external shock that increases unemployment will cause prices to go through the floor again.
It will bust…. imagine starting out in Ireland nowadays !!!! What do people do ?
@Martin Gerard Smith: can confirm: quite grim.
@Fake Avast: what are you on about. Using the blame trump card. Unemployment 17 year low the last 12 months. One of the Lowest tax reductions. Lowest unemployment for African American ever!! Dow 500 index hits 25000 first time ever.!! 212 percent increase on catching illegal immigrants. Aka ms13 gang members . Hey, it’s just accurate statistics.
Beautiful.
Hopefully one day capitalism in Ireland can finally achieve its goal.
One major US private equity company owning all the houses in Ireland.
We can dream!
I love this return of true capitalism to Ireland.
Reminds me of the glory days of the 1840′s!
One landlord, everyone else scraping by, and the political class just hand wringing throughout it all :)
@Franklin Roosevelt: How old are you to have been around in 1840?
How many people in Dublin and Galway will be pleased to pay much higher LPT in 2018?
@Fiona deFreyne: own a house worth 500k – be penalised for it.
Own 500k shares that pay a sweet dividend every year – here, enjoy our tax rates that lets you to pay even less than someone earning the same amount from a wage!
@Franklin Roosevelt: You can`t live in a share or a pension.Nothing beats property long term.
@Fiona deFreyne: property tax should be much higher. They can use the increase in that to cut the scandalous marginal rate of income tax!
So are wages going to increase by 10% after tax? How exactly do the ‘expert’s think people are going to pay for this. This government, along with the banks in state ownership and NAMA are playing a dangerous game.
@prop joe: good questions.
A lot of the purchasing is still for cash and lot if it by foreign investors who can borrow very cheaply.
It’s a great investment for foreign wealthy investors and wealthy Irish investors but it is much more challenging for lower and middle income earners access enough borrowings to but in a market which is defined by scarce supply.
In one recently gentrified area in Dublin the last 4 previously owner occupied houses have sold to private non resident owners and are nit being rented out. I would have thought that they would be rented out but the agents say that these are just “ bolt holes” for non Irish investors who are happy with capital appreciation.
@Fiona deFreyne: That is what has happened in London but honestly in Ireland there is no incentive to rent out a property. Your profit is minimal as you are taxed to the hilt and it is ridiculously difficult to get tenants out who are in default or who damage the property or behave antisocially. If you were wealthy as many of these investors are why bother with the additional hassle?
@Sean: tax is only an issue if you are making a profit rental income. Yields in Irish rental properties are very high. Rents are very higher in Dublin and others areas.
@Fiona deFreyne: Wrong as usual you are taxed on the income regardless of profit. The yields are not very high due to tax unless you are an investment fund that can legally avoid the tax.
@Kal Ipers: you are actually incorrect. Gross rents are not the basis of Case V Schedule D income. It is the net profit, after allowances.
You missed the international surveys placing Ireland at the highest of residential yields.
@Kal Ipers: and in rental yield, look at 7.08%
See thecIrish Times and the report quoted.
@Fiona deFreyne: You pay tax on the rental income regardless of profit. You can deduct 75% of the interest on the mortgage off that income. That is very little. You are wrong
@Fiona deFreyne: Yield in the Irish Times article is calculated by expressing annual rental income as a percentage of how much a property costs to buy. That is interesting as a statistic but not that relevant to a landlord who might find that tax, maintenance, mortgage repayments and service charge mean that it is costing him several thousand per year to rent out a property and that’s not putting a cost on hassle and labour. Yes, the landlord will eventually own the property thirty years down the line but the only winner is the Government.
@Sean: allowable expenses and can be maximized to alllow for depreciation and other factors.
With high rents, huge demand and tenant desperation this is a brilliant time to be a private landlord who has not borrowed 100% of purchase price.
@Kal Ipers: correct.
@Fiona deFreyne: That is a myth that doesn’t stand up to a whole lot of scrutiny I’m afraid. This site details the cost of being a landlord and shows that the typical investor landlord may have to pony up 80K to start with and then may end up down in net cash flow terms even assuming 100% occupancy and no bad tenants. http://www.informeddecisions.ie/blog33/
@Fiona deFreyne: those rental yields are as close to fake news as you can get. Not accounting for tax and expenses make the stats useless. There are hundreds of better investments that Irish buy to let property right now
If you can get 8% appreciation in a year, why would anyone sell a house now unless you had to. There is no safe investment generating that return.
So, the effect of predicting such an increase of 8% is to encourage people to retain property, reducing supply, and thereby achieving the increase or more.
@Fiona deFreyne: You really really don’t understand economics. The most basic understanding of supply and demand says the complete opposite. You also don’t understand how capital gains affects things.
@Kal Ipers: it is a matter of taking advantage of a scarce supply market, getting capital appreciation, preventing more property being sold, because there is a capital gain incentive to hold on to property, thereby constructing available supply further and pushing up prices. It’s the stockpiling effect which is a symptom of a scarce supply market, in which demand outstrips supply, resulting in people preferring to retain, not to sell.
Essentially a self reinforcing feedback loop until the values become unaffordable or market perception is that assets are over valued.
Well once there is no supply (or lack of it) then what did people expect?
@Mark Foy: yes and the preduction of another 20% increase will incentivise people nit to sell, further restructure available supply.
Now that prices are “recovering” the banks and the vulture funds have geared up for Possession Orders. They had to wait for negative equity to be absorbed by inflated prices driven by scarce supply.
The disadvantages of being locked out from your owning you own home are numerous.
1. Unaffordablity of residential rents post retirement unless a comfortable pension, which are in short supply.
2. Difficulty in accessing the fair deal scheme for funding nursing home care.
3. Instability and insecurity of tenure in rented accommodation.
4, Increasing and inflating rents in areas close to employment and schools, absorbing a larger and larger percentage of after tax income.
5. Owning your own home in a reducing annuity mortgage based operate as a form of locked in saving and modest wealth accumulation.
6. Owning your own home renders it easier to out down roots and be part of a local community. Renting often means a transient and uninvested life style, community wise.
There are other advantages and disadvantages but overall there are significant long term advantages in owning your own home but that assumes that you can access the owner occupied market.
Where is the massive flood of private landlords selling their houses which they have taken from tenants on the basis that they want to sell the houses?
@Fiona deFreyne: Many landlords have already sold up but more continue to do so every month. There’s no flood because they don all come on the market at the same time. Most have to wait until they are out of negative equity and tenant notice has been served. But there’s an easy way to check. The number of rental properties in Ireland is at its lowest in recorded history which stretches back to 2006.
http://jrnl.ie/3557448
@Fiona deFreyne: Capacity of private residential owned property is much less than that of rentals. This means less people housed. You also miss the point that many people were evicted for refurbishments and family members moved into some property too.
@Kal Ipers: but the most common ground was intended sale. It was a function.
A total fiction.
@Fiona deFreyne: not a fiction the house that was rented across the road from me was sold to a family.
@Kal Ipers: so one anecdote defines a market. That’s just tendentious of you.
@Fiona deFreyne: But you dont even provide an anecdote.
Until you pay off a mortgage you don’t own your own home. You either pay rent to a landlord or pay rent to a bank.
People really don’t understand what is coming and predictable. Houses are going to keep going up to the point splitting houses is a viable financial option for houses in urban environments. It is the natural progression. Many older family homes are too big and expensive for some so they will be split. Happened in every city as it expands. We still have way too much stock of family homes when households are getting smaller.
Imo what’s happening globally is people (especially the wealthy) because cash is so cheap now (effectively 0% interest rates on savings) are pouring large amounts of cash into assets like property, stocks and company shares, cryptocurrencies, government bonds in order to safeguard their wealth.
Sadly even with enough supply like London for example, prices can still climb to and stay at unaffordable because billionaire investors from USA, Asia, Middle East, are free to buy up as much property as they want.
@Frederick Higginbottom: The price of a four bed in North London per square foot is the same now as parts of Dublin. Thats when you know prices here are too high. The return on investment on a house there is 2500 quid a month. There is less tax and a better resale value. Ireland property is like a pendulum and we are on the up now but another downturn is just around the corner. The country is too small and there isnt enough work.
So lets take a modest house price in Salthill Galway of 200k that’s going to rise 15% or €30k.
On the so-called average industrial wage of €35k leaves €28k-ish net. So a single person is €2k BEHIND before even starting for 2018.
How are people supposed to save for a home when the rise in property prices is more than anyone can ever be expected to save?
The Boom is back baby!!
@Nick Dunne: why does a single person need a house? What are the doing with the extra bedrooms?
@Kal Ipers: Why wouldn’t a single person want a house?? They could do whatever they like.. you’re assuming they’re going to be single forever and not have a family.
Swap FG for FF as always and hope for change :-(
Here we go again ,the blind leading the blind /
Unsustainable madness.
Rising house prices. Congratulations to fg and the banks!
I also think property is going to keep going up. I just hope that all the people that over stretch themselves are left in an awful mess when interest rates rise.
Tax payer shouldn’t be liable for homeowners.
Inflation is through the roof, yet figures used are chosen to make inflation seem low to the idiots. With inflation so high rates will surge at some point. People will be in trouble.
I also see irelands situation regarding corporate tax whimpering out. America has reduced its rate, and I’d think loads of the multinationals could leave Ireland eventually. Nothing lasts for ever.
When the pig gets fat, the hog gets slaughtered.
Just go too work pay your taxes, and shut you mouth.
it will c
Yahoo!!!!
You will be absolutely f*cked in Ireland when interest rates go up
Do i buy or do i wait?
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