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Prostate cancer cases to double worldwide by 2040, new research suggests

Annual deaths from the disease are projected to increase by 85% to almost 700,000 over the same timeframe, researchers say.

PROSTATE CANCER CASES are expected to double worldwide between 2020 and 2040, new analysis suggests.

The data suggests annual prostate cancer cases are projected to rise from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040.

Annual deaths from the disease are projected to increase by 85% to almost 700,000 over the same timeframe, mainly among men in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Ageing populations and increasing life expectancy will lead to higher numbers of older men in coming years.

The main risk factors for prostate cancer – such as being aged 50 or older and having a family history of the disease – are unavoidable, so it will not be possible to prevent the upcoming surge in cases through lifestyle changes or public health interventions, the researchers suggest.

The Lancet Commission on prostate cancer argues that the informed choice programme for prostate cancer screening with testing, which is common in high-income countries (HICs), may lead to over-testing and unnecessary treatment in older men, and under-testing in high-risk younger men.

Instead, the authors advocate for early-detection programmes for those at high risk.

The commission also calls for urgent programmes to raise awareness of prostate cancer and for improvements in early diagnosis and treatment in LMICs.

More research involving men of different ethnicities, especially those of West African descent, is needed, the researchers say.

Prostate cancer is a major cause of death and disability, accounting for 15% of all male cancers.

In the UK, it is the second most common cause of cancer deaths in men and the most common form of male cancer in more than half of the world’s countries.

Data suggests there were 56,780 estimated prostate cancer cases in 2020 and this is predicted to increase to 75,066 cases by 2040 (if incidence rates stay the same), a 32% increase over 20 years.

If there was a 1% decline per year until 2040, as is predicted for the Northern Europe region in the study, the predicted number in 2040 would still increase to 61,397 new cases, an 8% increase over 20 years.

With an annual 1% increase in cases, the predicted number would be 91,544 in 2040, a 61% increase over 20 years.

Nick James, lead author of the commission and professor of prostate and bladder cancer research at the Institute of Cancer Research, London, said: “As more and more men around the world live to middle and old age, there will be an inevitable rise in the number of prostate cancer cases.

“We know this surge in cases is coming, so we need to start planning and take action now.

“Evidence-based interventions, such as improved early detection and education programmes, will help to save lives and prevent ill health from prostate cancer in the years to come.

“This is especially true for low- and middle-income countries which will bear the overwhelming brunt of future cases.”

In HICs, screening for prostate cancer often involves the PSA test, a blood test that measures levels of a protein called prostate-specific antigen (PSA).

The current approach to prostate cancer diagnosis in the UK and many other HICs relies on “informed choice” PSA testing.

Men aged 50 or over with no symptoms can request a PSA test from their doctor after a discussion of the risks and benefits.

According to the commission, there is evidence to suggest this approach leads to over-testing in low-risk older men but does not increase detection of prostate cancer in younger men at higher risk.

Instead, the authors recommend using MRI scans in combination with PSA testing to screen men at high risk of prostate cancer in HICs.

This includes those with a family history of the disease, those of African origin and those carrying the BRCA2 mutation.

The experts say new approaches are needed to enable earlier diagnosis in LMICs, as most men in these countries present with an advanced form of disease where the cancer has spread to other parts of the body, often the bones.

Men with late-stage prostate cancer are much less likely to survive for a long period of time than those who are diagnosed early.

James, who is also a consultant clinical oncologist at the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, added: “With prostate cancer we cannot wait for people to feel ill and seek help – we must encourage testing in those who feel well but who have a high risk of the disease in order to catch lethal prostate cancer early.

“Pop-up clinics and mobile testing offer cost-effective solutions that combine health checks and education.”

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    Mute Sean Ryan
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    Apr 5th 2024, 9:46 AM

    Unfortunately the PSA test is not fit for purpose and leads to unnecessary treatments, as highlighted here (for once!). We need better diagnostics available to us. Not forgetting, many men live with and with some degree of prostate cancer but it never necessarily effects them (they die of something else).

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    Mute Sean Ryan
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    Apr 5th 2024, 9:47 AM

    @Sean Ryan: edit: * live with and die with

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    Mute BadBob
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    Apr 5th 2024, 12:23 PM

    @Sean Ryan: i think you misunderstand what a PSA test is. Im speaking as a man who has been under observation for prostate issues for 12 years.
    PSA is only 1 tool in an arsenal of tools used by the profession. And even 1 PSA test on its own is used as a guide, nothing more. Its not definitive.
    From repeaded PSA twice a year for 12 years, its progess is observed. It lead to 3 MRIs, 4 biopsies and 1 operation.
    And even after the operation, i get more PSA tests and a mri.
    So i suggest you research further

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    Mute Sean Ryan
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    Apr 5th 2024, 12:33 PM

    @BadBob: I’m fully aware of what the PSA does and doesn’t do.

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    Mute Ciaran Dunne
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    Apr 5th 2024, 1:11 PM

    I get my bloods checked around my Birthday. It’s my present to me , from me. Cancer detected years ago and I’m all clear now ! GET your PSA test , your worth it, your family already know your worth it !

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    Mute eoin fitzpatrick
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    Apr 5th 2024, 11:08 AM

    as we all live longer and detection methods improve, prostate cancer rates will always increase in the stats. a lot of men die with prostate cancer without even knowing it.

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    Mute colette byrne
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    Apr 5th 2024, 9:35 AM

    Go get checked, what’s to discuss. Don’t see women on moaning no one is discussing menopause.

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    Mute Brian
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    Apr 5th 2024, 1:37 PM

    @colette byrne: No one is discussing the menopause..? Are you serious? Quick search on the Journal website for menopause articles V prostate cancer articles shows that 3 articles have been posted regarding prostate cancer since 2020 .. in the same time menopause articles numbered 27 ! And you want to know what’s to discuss.. ? How about the very clear lack of discussion around prostate cancer .. the woeful lack of initative or programmes to raise awareness and education on the matter.. and most importantly make health screenings free as is the case for breast and cervical cancer… if the shoe was on the other foot I’m sure you wouldn’t be so blazae in your response to prostate cancer.. woefully ignorant comment.

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    Mute Frank McGlynn
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    Apr 5th 2024, 3:55 PM

    @Brian: Colette will never pass up an opportunity to make a misandrist comment even if it is absolute nonsense.

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    Mute Jacqui Curtisowens
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    Apr 5th 2024, 12:40 PM

    I know 2 men in their mid 50s battling this cancer. Fighting hard to win the battle

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    Mute Emer Daly
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    Apr 5th 2024, 1:34 PM

    If you have family history of the disease its unavoidable am I reading that right.

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    Mute Tricia G
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    Apr 5th 2024, 2:41 PM

    @Emer Daly: Not unavoidable, well, the risk factors are age and family history but I’m sure a healthy lifestyle can “help”. But what they’re really trying to get across is, if you tick the box as increased rick, get checked regularly. Early detection means vastly superior survival rates.

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    Mute gregory pym
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    Apr 7th 2024, 9:59 AM

    Scientific American article easily found on net by Researchers who developed PSA test showed that when they looked at the epidemiology after 15 years or so they found no increase in the survival rates of men who had tested positive on the PHA test and been “treated” and those who had not. What they found was that the majority of men treated had serious life long problems after surgery . They ended the article saying they would not have developed a test had they known the consequences of unnecessary treatment .

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