LAST UPDATE | 27 Feb 2023

[NOTE: We are now covering all of today's rolling events in a liveblog]

UK PRIME MINISTER Rishi Sunak appears to be on the verge of agreeing a Brexit deal aimed at easing trade friction in Northern Ireland as he enters into “final talks” with the European Union.

Sunak will meet European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Windsor today to discuss a “range of complex challenges” around the Northern Ireland Protocol, Downing Street said.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said yesterday that he had been in touch with both leaders at the weekend, and described the visit as an encouraging development. 

Speaking to RTÉ News last night he said the two sides were “inching forward to an agreement”, adding that “there’s definitely still a bit of work to be done”.

Downing Street has raised the prospect that the talks could produce a breakthrough moment after months of negotiations with Brussels about fixing the protocol.

Sunak, following on from his discussions with the EU chief, is planning to brief his Cabinet before potentially announcing to voters and MPs the details of any agreed deal.

He told the Express newspaper that should he shake hands with von der Leyen on a pact that “works for all”, it would “show that Brexit truly works and will finish the job”.

He added: “This deal will work better for business and communities and get goods moving.

“It will resolve the issues so we can all move forward. This will give Northern Ireland control of their own destiny. This is something very positive.”

The protocol D-Day, however, is fraught with risks for the Prime Minister.

If any potential agreement fails to meet the red lines set by the DUP, it could mean the party continues to abstain from restoring Stormint and put him on a collision course with hardline Brexiteers on his own backbenches.

Downing Street has not fully committed to giving Parliament a vote on the agreement, as demanded by the hardline Brexiteer Tory group the European Research Group (ERG).

The Times, however, reported that Cabinet ministers had briefed MPs that they could expect to have their say on at least “part of the deal”.

Speaking this morning, Tory Eurosceptic Jacob Rees-Mogg said the “devil is in the detail” and he refused to say if he would vote for the deal. 

“There are two things we need to know: one is what the DUP thinks, because the Protocol itself sets out in its first article that it is subsidiary to the Good Friday Agreement.

“So, if the DUP doesn’t think that it meets test, that will be very influential among Conservative MPs.

“I’m afraid with all the EU deals the devil is in the detail, so when people say ‘we need to see the legal text’, they are not larking about, they really want to see it to understand what the effect is.”

The former Cabinet minister added that he does not believe Sunak has done enough to convince the DUP to go back into power-sharing: 

From what I’ve heard, he (Rishi Sunak) has done very well, but I’m not sure he has achieved the objective of getting the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) back into powersharing, which is the fundamental point of it.

The Protocol, signed by Boris Johnson in 2020, was designed to prevent a hard border in Ireland after Brexit, with Northern Ireland continuing to follow EU rules on goods to prevent checks being needed when crossing into the Republic. 

But the trade barriers in the Irish Sea created by the treaty have created tension, with the DUP collapsing powersharing last year in protest at its impact.

Today’s schedule 

Sunak will speak with the EU leader at lunchtime before holding a virtual Cabinet session from Windsor to brief them on what he has managed to secure.

Those most closely involved, including Foreign Secretary James Cleverly — who has met regularly in recent weeks with commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic — and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris, are expected to join him in person.

Should London and Brussels sign-off on a protocol revision, Sunak and von der Leyen will hold a joint press conference.

Sunak plans to travel to Westminster afterwards to give a statement in the House of Commons.

What’s in the deal? 

There has been little detail revealed on what is currently on the table in terms of a fresh pact but UK Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab appeared to hint at what might be in a new deal during interviews yesterday.

Raab indicated that reports of check-free lanes for goods coming from Great Britain into Northern Ireland were correct and that efforts had been made to give Belfast a role in approving new EU laws that would apply in the North. 

The Leave campaigner said the reduction in trade red tape would lead to a “substantial scaling back” of the role of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), but he refused to rule out it having a say on future legal cases.

The continued application of Brussels-made laws and the influence of European judges in Northern Ireland after Brexit has angered Tory Eurosceptics and the DUP, putting Sunak at risk of a backbench revolt if he calls a vote on a deal that permits either.

He is likely to win any division but is keen to avoid needing Labour votes, with the Opposition party supporting a revised deal, to secure victory.

Speaking yesteday, Tánaiste Michéal Martin said “very significant progress” had been made in the talks and said the negotiating teams should be given space “not just to agree a deal, but to land a deal”. 

SDLP leader Colum Eastwood welcomed news of the progress and said any resolution to the discussions “must secure the benefits of dual market access for businesses in Northern Ireland”. 

He added in a statement:  “All political parties in the North will study the contents of any deal in detail but we should all be approaching this moment in good faith and with a determination to restore the democratic institutions of the Good Friday Agreement.

“The politics of division and deadlock must be abandoned in the days ahead.”

- Reporting by Daragh Brophy and Press Association