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Most Dublin pubs expect to grow in 2019 as gin trend continues, but they're worried about Brexit

Publicans are also concerned about the impact of the recent increase in VAT.

TWO OUT OF three pubs in Dublin expect to see their business grow in 2019 as the gin and craft beer trend continues.

Almost half of Dublin pubs (48%) are expecting growth in the region of 1–10%, 18% forecast growth of 11–24%, and 2% are anticipating an increase in business of 25% or more.

The figures are included in a report, The State of the Dublin Pub Trade 2019, published by the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA) ahead of the group’s AGM tomorrow.

While the majority of Dublin pubs expect to see an increase in business, 21% believe things will stay the same this year, 10% are forecasting a 1–10% drop, and 1% think their business will decline by 11–24%.

Despite the positive outlook, many publicans are worried about the impact Brexit could have on tourism as well as the VAT rate in the hospitality sector increasing from 9% to 13.5% in January.

The LVA said the situation in Dublin pubs is “in contrast to the uncertainty experienced by hospitality and tourism businesses based outside the capital, with difficult trading conditions being widely reported”.

A spokesperson for the organisation added that the survey data highlights “a growing ‘two-tier’ outlook in the tourism and hospitality industries between Dublin and the rest of the country”.

Extra staff 

The research also found that the average Dublin pub expects to hire an additional five staff members this year, two in full-time roles and three in part-time positions. This adds to the current 12 full-time staff members and 15 part-time members of staff employed on average in pubs across the capital.

Providing food has also become an increased area of focus within the Dublin trade and that trend looks set to continue in 2019, with 60% of pubs expecting to see their food business grow.

Four out of 10 Dublin pubs expect to be refurbished this year, with one in eight planning to spend more than €100,000.

Despite the positive outlook, the LVA said pubs are facing challenges such as Brexit, staffing issues, the cost of insurance, and competition.

Pubs in the capital faced an average insurance cost increase of 50% over the last three years. The average insurance premium for Dublin pubs is now €25,000 per year. 

More than half of the pubs across Dublin also suspect they have been the victims of a fraudulent claim within the last five years, according to the survey. 

Competition from other pubs, restaurants, hotels, cafés, trips abroad and other hospitality/tourism businesses were also highlighted as a concern.

Music, gin and craft beer

Six out of 10 Dublin pubs host live music in their establishments, while only one in 20 does not feature any kind of music, according to the report. 

The growth of the gin trend is also reflected across the capital, with half of Dublin pubs now stocking more than 10 different types of gin. Craft beer is also becoming increasingly common in bars across Dublin, with 40% of pubs now serving six types or more.

The day of leaving a cash float behind the bar is also decreasing in the capital. One third of pubs in Dublin say that credit and debit cards now account for more than half of all their transactions.

Speaking about the survey, Donal O’Keeffe, Chief Executive of the LVA said the survey’s findings “seem to confirm the growing discrepancy throughout the tourism and hospitality sector, with a two-tier system developing”.

Tourism and hospitality businesses in Dublin are thriving, while widespread reports would suggest the conditions in other parts of the country are more difficult for all businesses in this sector.

O’Keeffe stated that the majority of publicans are “worried about Brexit and what impact that will have on the tourism trade”. “The decision to hike the hospitality VAT rate is deeply worrying in terms our tourism competitiveness,” he added. 

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    Mute Rob Cahill
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:06 AM

    Gin trend.. Are people that easily lead??? I suppose someone got young men to think no socks and trousers too short for them looked good so anything is possible.

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    Mute Quentin Moriarty
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    Mar 19th 2019, 11:14 AM

    @Rob Cahill: Phil Lynott got another bottle of wine n a bottle of gin .
    Well ahead of the posse

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    Mute Brian Ó Dálaigh
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    Mar 19th 2019, 4:03 PM

    @Quentin Moriarty: I don’t think Phil Lynott’s gins were taken in fishbowl glasses with half of the local garden centre’s menagerie of plants tossed into it, though…

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    Mute Quentin Moriarty
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:48 PM

    @Brian Ó Dálaigh: by the bottle n neck like all good rock stars

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    Mute Billy Nomates
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    Mar 20th 2019, 12:26 AM

    @Rob Cahill: yes they are, serve cat piss in a teapot and it will be the next big thing

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    Mute Ronan McDermott
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    Mar 20th 2019, 12:58 AM

    @Rob Cahill: that style is all the rage in Montreal. True story

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    Mute David Garland
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    Mar 19th 2019, 11:32 AM

    Dublin has turned into a mini Brooklyn.. You’re nothing these days if you don’t have a beard, wear skinny jeans, go to work on a motorised skateboard and have cucumber floating around in your €13 Gin and Tonic

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    Mute Skybloo
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    Mar 19th 2019, 12:00 PM

    @David Garland: I want to be something – best get myself a beard, skateboard and a cucumber. Cucumber sorted – where does a this old gal get the rest?

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    Mute Mia Ryan
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:19 AM

    Okay…completely off topic here but just wanted to ask The Journal why, in a story about the New Zealand PM asking people not to give the attacker the notoriety he seeks by using his name but rather to speak the names of those he killed, they decided to give his full name and nationality but not the name of a single person killed?

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    Mute Michael
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    Mar 19th 2019, 11:08 AM

    @Mia Ryan: Because she’s the prime minister and is making a point on how they should approach his case going forward..the journal on the other hand are reporting the story. Maybe they should write the full list of the victims every time they report on this story..that’s practical

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    Mute Mia Ryan
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    Mar 19th 2019, 12:07 PM

    @Michael: But isn’t that the point? By naming him in the media it feeds his need. The media could refer to him as “murderer” or “the terrorist” without using his name. The perpetrators always gets the media spotlight while the victims get consigned to a number. By refusing to name them the media might just help stop one killer who seeks his moment of fame. It’s not difficult to report the story without actually naming the murderer, it just takes a publication with a conscience…..which apparently is asking too much here.

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Mar 19th 2019, 12:27 PM

    @Mia Ryan: I can’t see what difference naming or not naming him makes at this stage.

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    Mute Michael
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    Mar 19th 2019, 12:52 PM

    @Mia Ryan: there will be countless documentaries and studies into this guy..once the police released his name that’s it there’s no taking it back..the prime minister is speaking more about how she would like the court case to refer to him..I thought that was clear enough neway

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    Mute Garreth Mc Mahon
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    Mar 19th 2019, 9:29 AM

    On one hand we’re told we drink too much. Now it’s we’re gonna drink more, more of the most depressing of drinks that’s made, alls gonna end well

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    Mute Canny Jem
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    Mar 19th 2019, 6:42 PM

    @Garreth Mc Mahon: Agreed – Gin is well known as one of the worst drinks that lead to depression. When that became widely known scientifically a few years ago, sales of G & T dropped dramatically and forgotten about until this new trend started.
    That’s heads-up to Depression Clinics for increase of patients, if the “trend” continues.

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    Mute 5hbeZh0I
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:20 PM

    @Canny Jem: The world was also well known to be flat… and it was proven to be absolutely untrue. It doesn’t cause depression anymore than another alcohol of the same strength would.

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    Mute Eric Davies
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:14 AM

    meanwhile rural pubs are closing !!! 20 odd years ago you could get thousands of euro/punt for a pub licence – now due to the closure of rural pubs there hundreds of them available .

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    Mute James Wallace
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    Mar 19th 2019, 12:39 PM

    @Eric Davies: part of the problem is we had too many pubs. I was in Gort Co Galway a number of years ago and including hotel bars, there was something like 15 or 16 pubs in the place for a population of around 2.5 – 3 thousand. I realise there are other factors like drink driving laws also, but I’d say Gort wasn’t un-typical of similar size towns in the number of pubs.

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    Mute Craic_a_tower
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    Mar 19th 2019, 1:30 PM

    @Eric Davies: If they have no customers why should they stay open?

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    Mute Skybloo
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    Mar 19th 2019, 10:58 AM

    I love gin

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    Mute Aidan Dorney
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    Mar 19th 2019, 4:10 PM

    @Skybloo: I hate gin.

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    Mute pat seery
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    Mar 19th 2019, 4:17 PM

    THER WILL BE NO BREXIT STOP WORRYING

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    Mute Lyndsy Ní Éalaithe
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    Mar 19th 2019, 7:02 PM

    Was out with friends & was in a round. My drink was €6, nearly choked when the g&t for someone in the group cost €12!!!! It’s gin, I don’t get it!

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    Mute Patrick Agnew
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    Mar 19th 2019, 8:39 PM

    @Lyndsy Ní Éalaithe: it’s not the gin it’s the price that depresses you

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    Mute Patrick Agnew
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    Mar 19th 2019, 8:38 PM

    How much does a Gin and Tonic cost in Dublin these days? I’m up north

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    Mute Patrick Agnew
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    Mar 19th 2019, 8:42 PM

    @Patrick Agnew: a 1 litre bottle of Gordon’s gin is down to £16 in Asda today

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    Mute William Kelly
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    Mar 20th 2019, 7:49 AM

    Maybe the Publicans are worried about no more hen parties of Brits off their sweet little heads.
    No loss if it happens.

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