VLADIMIR PUTIN HAS moved to prolong his unyielding grip on Russia for another six years, state media said, announcing his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election that he is all but certain to win.
Putin still commands wide support after nearly a quarter-century in power, despite starting an immensely costly war in Ukraine that has taken thousands of his countrymen’s lives, provoked repeated attacks inside Russia – including one on the Kremlin itself – and corroded its aura of invincibility.
A short-lived rebellion in June by mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin raised speculation that Putin could be losing his grip or that it would mar his strongman image.
But he has emerged with no permanent scars, and Prigozhin’s death in a mysterious plane crash two months later reinforced the view that Putin was in absolute control.
About 80% of the populace approves of his performance, according to the independent pollster Levada Centre.
That support might come from the heart or it might reflect submission to a leader whose crackdown on any opposition has made even relatively mild criticism perilous.
Whether due to real or coerced support, Putin is expected to face only token opposition on the ballot for the 17 March 2024 election.
Putin, now 71 years old, has twice used his leverage to amend the constitution so he could theoretically stay in power until he is in his mid-80s.
He already is the longest-serving Kremlin leader since Josef Stalin.
In 2008, when he stepped aside to become prime minister due to term limits but remained Russia’s driving force, presidential terms were extended to six years from four.
Another package of amendments he pushed through three years ago reset the count for two consecutive terms to begin in 2024.
Dmitry Oreshkin, a political analyst and professor at Free University of Riga, Latvia, told The Associated Press earlier this year: “He is afraid to give up power.”
At the time of the amendments that allowed him two more terms, Putin’s concern about losing power may have been elevated as Levada polling showed his approval rating significantly lower, hovering around 60%.
In the view of some analysts, that dip in popularity could have been a main driver of the war that Putin launched in Ukraine in February 2022.
Commentator Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter now living in Israel, said: “This conflict with Ukraine was necessary as a glue. He needed to consolidate his power.”
Brookings Institution scholar Fiona Hill, a former US National Security Council expert on Russian affairs, agrees that Putin thought “a lovely small, small victorious war” would consolidate support for his re-election.
“Ukraine would capitulate,” she told AP this year. “He’d install a new president in Ukraine. He would declare himself the president of a new union of Belarus, Ukraine and Russia over the course of the time leading up to the 2024 election. He’d be the supreme leader.”
The war did not turn out that way.
It devolved into a gruelling slog in which neither side made significant headway and posed severe challenges to the rising prosperity integral to Mr Putin’s popularity and Russians’ propensity to set aside concerns about corrupt politics and shrinking tolerance of dissent.
Philip Short, author of the 2022 book Putin, believes the Russian leader had wanted to put in place a political transition before 2024 “so that he didn’t have to stand again”, but that his struggles in Ukraine have forced him to stay on.
Carnegie Europe scholar Tatiana Stanovaya said Putin “believes that when you serve a state, you can’t leave your post in the difficult situation”.
Although Putin has long abandoned the macho photo shoots of bear hunting and scuba diving that once amused and impressed the world, he shows little sign of slowing down.
Photos from 2022 of him with a bloated face and a hunched posture led to speculation he was seriously ill, but he seems little changed in recent public appearances.
Putin’s rule has spanned five US presidencies, from Bill Clinton to Joe Biden.
He became acting president on New Year’s Eve in 1999 when Boris Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned. He was elected to his first term in March 2000.
When he was forced to step down in 2008 by term limits, he shifted to the prime minister’s post while close ally Dmitry Medvedev served as a placeholder president.
When Putin announced he would run for a new term in 2012 and Medvedev submissively agreed to become prime minister, public protests brought out crowds of 100,000 or more.
“He’s a wartime president, is mobilising the population behind him,” Hill said.
“And that will be the message around the 2024 election, depending on where things are in the battlefield.”
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