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THE APOCRYPHAL CHINESE curse, “May you live in interesting times”, operates on the ancient – and painful – wisdom that instability, uncertainty and flux bring chaos, risk and suffering to our daily lives. In security and defense terms, as we enter 2018 we are living in very interesting times.
The defence, intelligence and terrorism outlook for 2018 is complex. For Ireland and for Irish citizens at home and abroad, 2018 will bring an accelerated transformation of global, regional and domestic conventional and asymmetric threats.
The outlook is bleak
In terms of asymmetric threats and terrorism, the outlook is bleak. 2018 will see a continuation of terrorist attacks and other mass casualty incidents as European Union member states – including Britain and Ireland – are targeted by Islamic State as it regroups, re-organises and re-configures its leadership structure in north Africa, after the destruction of its Caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
In terms of such terror attacks, what can we expect to see? The pattern for future attacks has been firmly established and the template is simple.
According to Islamic State’s former spokesperson, Abu Mohamed al Adnani, the instructions are clear: “Smash his (the non-believer’s) head with a rock, slaughter him with a knife or run him over with your car.”
Islamic State’s call to action is distinctly low tech and straightforward compared to the elaborate terrorist ‘spectaculars’, like 9/11, organised by groups such as Al Qaeda in the past.
Lone wolf attacks
2017 saw a series of such simple, low tech – albeit horrific – Islamist terror attacks in London and Manchester. These were a mixture of so-called ‘lone wolf’ attacks and coordinated, supported hybrid ‘marauding’ attacks.
The Westminster Bridge attack in March was a classic ‘lone wolf’ style incident. The assailant, 52-year-old Khalid Masood, hired a Hyundai Tucson near Birmingham and drove to London. In a seemingly opportunistic and impulsive attack, Masood simply drove the car at pedestrians on Westminster Bridge at high speed.
Having struck several pedestrians, he lost control of the vehicle and crashed it. He then embarked on a marauding stabbing frenzy with a knife he had bought in a Tesco store in Birmingham. His short killing spree ended in New Palace Yard where he stabbed Constable Keith Palmer to death before being shot dead himself by armed responders.
The entire attack took just one minute and 21 seconds from start to finish and resulted in the deaths of five people with almost fifty others injured – some critically.
Since the attack, it has emerged that Masood converted to Islam in 2003 after a string of convictions for violent offenses. His conversion coincided with the US invasion of Iraq. Police investigators also subsequently uncovered a Whatsapp message he sent, just three minutes before his attack, claiming that his actions were designed to seek revenge for western military interventions in Muslim countries.
Recent and radicalised converts
Security experts in France, Britain and the USA have observed that up to 40% of so-called Islamist ‘Jihadis’ are recent and radicalised converts to Islam.
Many have only a superficial knowledge of the Koran, and are carefully chosen and groomed to commit violent acts by manipulative online engagements and by interactions in radical Islamic ‘schools’ or madrassas – often, though not always, unofficial – that specifically target vulnerable, disaffected and angry young men.
There is a cohort of Irish passport holders that is vulnerable to this type of radicalisation. The same English language websites, blogs and chat-rooms that target disaffected young men in Manchester, Birmingham and London, also target young Irish citizens who might be amenable to grooming, manipulation and radicalisation.
Ireland has seen at least forty of its citizens go to Syria and Iraq to perform ‘Jihad’- including some such as Khalid Kelly, who have died in suicide attacks on coalition-backed Iraqi forces. Thousands of such Jihadis with EU passports are expected to return to Europe – including Ireland – after the recent fall of Islamic State’s Caliphate.
It could happen in Ireland
It is therefore a distinct possibility that a lone wolf attack – such as that carried out by Khalid Masood – could happen in Ireland. Despite recent Garda and Defence Forces exercises designed to simulate such attacks, Ireland lacks the comprehensive multi agency response – including specially trained paramedics and advance trauma teams – to fully deal with such an attack.
The Manchester bombing in May carried out by Salman Ramadan Abedi targeted children and pre-teens at an Ariana Grande concert at the Manchester Arena. The attacker detonated a primitive but effective TATP (Tri Acetone, Tri Peroxide) improvised explosive device as concert-goers left the Arena.
In other words, Abedi – and his handlers – did not attempt to enter the venue via traditional security measures and screening area. Rather, Abedi and the network that supported him, exploited the weakest point in the Manchester Arena’s layout and attacked defenseless children as they exited towards the train station.
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Four key features
This attack consisted of four key features that are relevant to future attacks in 2018.
One, the attack was not a lone wolf operation – Abedi was radicalised, trained and supported by a network that has to date, avoided detection. Two, Abedi targeted children and this indicates that such terror cells have no boundaries or inhibitions in terms of target selection.
Three – This would be considered a highly successful operation with 22 killed (including an eight year old girl) and over 200 injured. Four – such networks or cells will be keen to repeat such an attack, but will seek to exploit weakness in security and surveillance capability.
In my opinion therefore, such an attack is a distinct possibility in Ireland, where security infrastructure is provocatively weak and where the intelligence and defence community are underfunded and experiencing low morale with leadership – operationally and politically – in disarray.
The London Bridge attack in June of this year was a hybrid attack carried out by a number of like-minded individuals with suicidal intent. Using a Renault van – the attackers followed the established pattern and simply drove at pedestrians.
They then left the vehicle and began a stabbing frenzy, killing eight and wounding up to 50 people before they were shot dead by armed responders. Significantly, one of the killers – Rachid Redouane – was previously an Irish resident and was carrying an Irish identity card at the time of the attack.
There are ready and capable individuals here
This is confirmation that there are individuals in this jurisdiction that are ready, willing and capable of carrying out such attacks in Britain or Ireland in 2018.
It is interesting and a matter of concern that the Irish government has not increased the threat level here in light of such developments in Britain and neutral Sweden, with the Stockholm truck attack of April 2017.
This is despite the fact that the threat level has de facto escalated. Concert goers here face bag checks and there has been an increased investment in armed response units. There have also been high level meetings of Ireland’s version of the ‘Cobra Committee’ – pictures of which were tweeted by the Taoiseach himself.
However, unlike our EU counterparts, there has been no corresponding public information campaign or any attempt to educate the Irish public as to the nature of the emerging, growing threat – or how to respond in the event of an attack.
Regional conflict
In terms of regional conflict, the stage is set in the Middle East for escalating confrontation between Iran – a fledgling nuclear power backed by Russia – and a fully nuclear Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States backed by the United States.
This Shia versus Sunni proxy war – fought between the US and Russia over the last decade – has been disastrous for the United States and her EU allies. Vladimir Putin has been the clear winner in this awful conflict so far.
Emboldened by this experience and his successful and mischievous adventures in Crimea and the Ukraine, Russia will continue to interfere in the Baltic states and exploit the instability in central Europe accelerated by a European Union weakened by Brexit.
Risk of ‘accidental’ war
In terms of global conflict, there will be a risk in 2018 of an ‘accidental’ war caused by North Korea. Kim Jong Un has fired almost 100 missiles during his reign thus far – each missile launch a provocative and highly risky gambit.
Launched on a simple bearing and elevation, with primitive guidance systems and crude propulsion methods – the margin for error on splashdown points for North Korea’s missiles is very high.
The risk of an accidental strike on civil aviation – Singapore Airlines have already diverted their flight paths away from the Korean Peninsula – is high. If such a missile – or a rash counter missile response from surface to air missile batteries bristling through the region – were to down a passenger jet, we might slip into open warfare with the possibility of the first nuclear exchange since World War II. Similarly, an accidental strike on a US asset in the region – or on Japanese soil – could trigger a similar chain reaction.
China, Russia and other emergent superpowers are watching all of these developments with interest. Individually and collectively, they are content to watch the United States expend itself politically, diplomatically and militarily under the stewardship of President Donald Trump. The US has been very dramatically diminished in terms of its global status and role during this presidency.
It is against this backdrop of instability and fundamental seismic shifts in the world order that we enter 2018. There is no doubt that we are living in very interesting times indeed.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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@Larissa Caroline Nikolaus:
I wouldn’t disagree, but that still doesn’t mean we should stick our collective heads in the sand and ignore the potential threat of an islamist attack, even if it’s relatively small.
@MK76: “for Irish citizens at home and abroad, 2018 will bring an accelerated transformation of global, regional and domestic conventional and asymmetric threats”.
This could have come directly out of one of Nostradamus’ predictions, but missing the flood, locusts and famine bit. One is far 100,000 likely to killed in a car, farm, work, accident than killed by some ISIS nut. In the USA they obsess about “terrorism” but less than 20 will be killed that way each year, in contrast around 11,500 will be shot dead by fellow Americans and that just “life in the good old USA” So take you pick.
@Larissa Caroline Nikolaus: You think not having a public information campaign and talking about it publicly and responsibly as the author has just done, is scaremongering?
You think the cops announcing a few years ago they were themselves unprepared is scaremongering too?
It’s likely only a matter of time before something happens. I’d like our emergency services, police, army and government to be coordinated when it does happen.
@Avina Laaf: Fair enough, I agree that Gardai and emergency services should be trained for the unlikely event of a terror attack, but that’s just common sense, and in any case they should also be prepared for environmental catastrophes, like flooding for instance, and for the unlikely event of a major train accident, all these are things the emergency services should be prepared and trained for.
@Larissa Caroline Nikolaus: And that is the reason for traffic lights, lollipop ladies, zebra crossings etc. To reduce the risk,surely it is ok to do something that would reduce the risk of a terror attack even if it is an unlikely event. I have been crossing roads for years without incident but will still use a zebra crossing if available.
@Larissa Caroline Nikolaus: You’re also much more likely to be killed in a road traffic accident than in a drowning incident. That doesn’t mean water safety campaigns should cease.
@Avina Laaf: Also no point banging on about the reasons why we may be a target, such as the use of Shannon by the US military. It often occurred to me when Mick Wallace kept highlighting the issue that he was doing little more than painting a target on our backs. I’d be pretty sure that your average ISIS or Al-Queda fighter would never hear of our little island but for the fact it keeps popping up in news articles every so often, pointing out why we could been seen as a legitimate target for a wannabe suicide bomber with nothing better to do !!
Love the bit where he throws in the Russians in for good measure. Without Putin, John McCain’s ISIS allies would now be in full control of the eastern Mediterranean sea board in Syria and beyond. The Merkel 1million invitation would have looked like a tea party.
Reduce the risk by stopping allowing people in to our country that we have no way of knowing who or what they are. Surely this has to be front and centre of any security conversation??
@Pat Bateman: we don’t have domestic terrorism and haven’t for 20 years. If it was still here it would be for us to deal with. Our concentration should be on preventing possible terrorism that has been brought in to our country. Anyone that we cannot verify should be removed. The state has to secure the safety of its citizens first and foremost. If the EU applied the law we as a continent would not be facing the level of security risk we see today.
@Pat Bateman: we have no controls from what I can see. Review all that are here, if the state cannot verify simply remove the people in question. The state owns nothing to these people but owe the people of this island security against possible attacks. The Poland and Hungary model is the way to go….no mass influx of unverified people = reduced risk of attack. The EU has put the security of the citizens of this island and continent at risk with allowing non EU nationals in.
@Cathal S Byrne: We are outside Schengen. Any person arriving at any port or airport get’s immigration checks regardless where they are from. This includes Irish citizens. The Guard’s know exactly who come’s and goes.
@Cathal S Byrne: “Reduce the risk by stopping allowing people in to our country that we have no way of knowing who or what they are.” Exactly. Bloody yanks are a dangerous lot. Domestic terrorism is getting out of control over there. Oh wait, you meant brown people.
@Cathal S Byrne: “we have no controls from what I can see.”. So you’re speaking off the cuff with no area expertise or knowledge of the work done by the internal security service, Garda Crime and Security Branch or G2. Grand so.
‘Be aware, we have arrived in Ireland’ was an indirect message to the Irish government, church and citizens from an anti-christian group/movement in November 2014 when the steel cross on our highest mountain Carrauntoohil in Co Kerry was cut down. It was well planned exercise.
If someone leaves a western nation to go and fight a jihad with a proscribed organisation it should be seen as treason and a automatic rejection of their rights as European citizens. Their passports should then be flagged or invalidated and under no circumstances should they be allowed to return to western society. This should be tackled not on a individual national basis but on a pan European or pan global level.
@Raymond Dennehy: did you notice how Clonan tells us how many are coming back and it’s the governments fault if they kill us,when as you say, best not to let them back or not let them in, in the first place
Well I dunno about the rest of us but it’s good to know that our politicians have beefed up security in Leinster house recently. They’ll look after themselves financially and any other way first and foremost before everybody else, no matter how incompetent they are.
I’m half expecting Pascal to come out and start telling us the country would be a war zone if FG weren’t in gov. On more than one occasion now, he’s stated the country would be broke if FG weren’t in gov!
@Adrian: the country is broken. As a direct result of FG’s economic policies of borrow and be damned. And paying the unsecured bondholders every cent as they were told to do by our EU partners.
@Avina Laaf: Kenny and Old Baldy insisted on paying the unsecured bondholders. They’re also insisting that we don’t want the €13 bn Apple Tax money. That’s what we get for electing a bunch of second rate teachers
While a terror attack is a posibility all the animals escaping from Dublin Zoo is a possibility, a shark attack on surfers in Lahinch is another possibility as is Seagulls taking over Bray and driving out all the locals. This article is scaremongering at best but with a career in security what else can you expect.
Proxy Islamic war Sunni vs Shia between US and Russia for a decade….Russia intervened in Syria in late 2015 ….News to Israel they are fighting on same side as Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states…Israeli citizens are not even allowed to visit these counties….Main funder of HAMAS is Qatar….
- “Ireland has seen at least forty of its citizens go to Syria and Iraq to perform ‘Jihad’- including some such as Khalid Kelly, who have died in suicide attacks on coalition-backed Iraqi forces.”
Indeed, Taliban Terry, who blew himself up in November 2016. I remember seeing a comment by ‘james’ on The Journal when that was reported (http://jrnl.ie/3064738#comment-5601089):
- “Anything to get out of Longford.”
And I remember laughing; well it’s an Irish sort of dark-humour way of looking at it. But if anything like that happens in Ireland we won’t be laughing will we.
Add to that Kelly’s ethnicity. It wouldn’t be someone similar with Irish grandparents so to speak. And one could then expect a backlash against people of similar background who want nothing to do with this. Which is precisely the point of such attacks: force people to pick sides. ‘We’ would turn against them while ‘they’ would retreat back into their own communities.
It is frightfully easy to do this with terrorism. I really hope it will never get to this point.
Well Tom,maybe you should conduct a study at Dublin Airport asap.
It’s an absolute joke.private cars by the thousands allowed to pull right up to the front doors of T1 and T2 and no security at all.
At the same time the DAA losing a fortune in car park fees because nobody parks in them and picks up passengers as the Airport rules state.
A terrorists dream.It needs urgent attention.
@gerry fallon: Yeah I didn’t think you’d be able to answer my question. And humour is completely perceptive, if you think it was funny, you’re right, and if you think it wasn’t funny, you’re also right. You’re either a taxi man, or you work in the car park in the airport – but either way, your concern that people drop off and collect passengers at the door is bizarre.
@Sean Conway:
Countries all over the world with zero history of invading anyone else are now at the sharp end of islamist terrorism, so I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make…
The likes of that head-case Masood with the rented car and Tesco knife, who acted in protest of western powers intervention….does that mean the if western powers did not intervene, there’d be no need for us to fear? It appears that somebody, somewhere, wants us to be fearful. €£$€£$.
One of reasons we probably won’t be be attacked is it’s far easier to get to Ireland than than the UK and then travel over. If fanatics risked attacking Ireland obviously security would be ramped up and they would find it harder to get to the UK.
Beware folks, whenever the government talks of “Terror attacks” legislation to curtail freedoms and liberties are not far behind. Fact is atrocities happen every single day on planet Earth, scaremongering is just a tool governments use to facilitate the destruction of individual freedoms. We are already living in a nanny state, lets not make it a SUPERNANNY State :)
@Frank Lee: Same with Green issues, they don’t tackle green issues they just put a tax on them. I bought a pair of runners on the net for 30 euros and when they arrived the tax ones wanted 40 euros for them and the tax had to be paid. The fact is here is not prepared for anything not even putting a tax on a pair of runners?
@Philip: Couldn’t agree more. Tom has basically taken a much open source data from the net and rehashed it in a laxative-effect opinion piece, as he has done before. I don’t know where to start really, he’s jumped all over the shop and hasn’t really given any substance to his view that we are going to be a target in 2018.
Does Ireland need to prepare for an inevitable terror-related incident? Yes is does, and our security services are already planning for it. Should the public receive similar ‘what if’ scenario awareness publications as the UK? also yes; it would do no harm for people to be aware because people travel abroad and could easily be caught up in an incident while travelling, so it would serve us at home and abroad.
This isn’t the first time that Tom Clonan has had a pop at our government and security forces with nothing constructive to add; maybe he is confusing his own failings during his military career with the capabilities of our defence and security forces…
The only crack here is gangs knocking one another our or black Friday in Smyths toystore, I’m relatively safe here and I’ve no problem stating that, I’m not in to the Fear mongering.
It might sound like fear mongering but it’s beneath to have best preparation as it’s only a matter of time.Ive lived in Dublin and London and I don’t think Dublin will realise how vulnerable it is until it happens.Being part of the EU will not help.I hope I am wrong
Ireland is a backwater and of no interest to anyone except international money hiding cartels and Americans “discovering” their ancestry. Perhaps the police could try to provide a police service instead of dreaming that they’re on the same level as the big boys internationally
Tom is a good analyst and it may suit his work to say a threat from Islamic sources is a ‘distinct possibility’, but I could equally suggest an attack orchestrated by the enemies of Islam is equally as distinct.
@Louise Tallon: Have we read the same article? I found absolutely nothing informative in this piece that hasn’t been covered in more detail elsewhere. Similarly, his statement: “For Ireland and for Irish citizens at home and abroad, 2018 will bring an accelerated transformation of global, regional and domestic conventional and asymmetric threats” is utter hyperbole and lacks a single shred of merit, unless of course Tom Clonan has a crystal ball.
Terrorists like this will come from ghettos and from experience of racism and a lack of integration. While others will do it from letting others tell them what to think and what the Quran is suppose to say, without them checking for themselves because at the heart of it is the fact that people are sheep?
People at heart are fundamentally destructive if they don’t get their own way and that can be to themselves or to others, if they can’t have control one way then they seek it in another way. What terrorists like Isis shows is the far extreme result of the Big Brother age, the 15 minutes of fame age, the selfish and destructive age of popularity and fame.
It is also the age when foreign governments foreign policies related to lobbying and lobbyists are making many populations in foreign countries feel that they have no sovereignty or nationalism anymore and the feeling of being invaded and plundered while they see no improvements in their own lives is making them angry. So one of the sources for terrorism is foreign countries policies towards them and how these governments are making the peoples of these countries seem more wealthy than they are. Also the fact that foreign governments can as they see them invade and set up bases in their countries makes them feel invaded but no one in the West can see that as we are all blinded by US officials and their lies of corruption and greed that has become part of our culture as well?
When the terrorists realise that the greatest terror they could do is to ruin the economies of these countries then that will be the end of the stock markets as we know it but those in charge of those terrorists don’t want it because money means more to them that what they believe, even to control people to kill themselves because of their brainwashing seems to be what they enjoy the most. The bully who can even control people to kill themselves at will gives them a feeling of power that is just a drug to them and that might be one reason they don’t want to give it up?
Real terrorism would be to plunge the world economic system into chaos by creating massive mass bubbles and bursting them all at once but that would be financial suicide and the Saudis would never do that. I suppose if any did they would buy masses of gold first and that could be something to watch for?
But terrorisms main gold is not to spread fear but to spread and to plant seeds of racism and sectarianism and these seem to be Isis goals???
Would ISIS or similar kill the Goose that lays the golden egg? albeit they are usually indoctrinated but where I live, there are 5 mosques within close range, not forgetting the magnificent and friendly one which has been there for years on South Circular Road, and the Islamic Centre in Clonskeagh.
We have been more than accommodating to the Muslim community, with Leo Varadkar recently meeting with the Imaan in Clonskeagh mosque.
Security sources have said that Dublin and indeed Ireland is a Hotbed for Isis Cells so why is it highly likely here ? Most of us would prefer that Fighter Jets not refuel at Shannon. So I don’t get this article.
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Match and combine data from other data sources 72 partners can use this feature
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Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 53 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 88 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 69 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
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