THE BATTLE FOR Bakhmut has been raging now for just over a month. Since 6 February, Putin has been throwing his recently mobilised reservists into three major offensives in Donbas. These include an offensive toward Kreminna in Luhansk along with two major axes of advance on Bakhmut and Vuhledar in Donetsk.
The world’s attention is now focused on the central assault on Bakhmut. Whilst of limited strategic importance – although it would provide a launch pad for attacks on the Ukrainian stronghold of Kramatorsk – Bakhmut is of supreme symbolic significance for Putin. The fall of Bakhmut – and its destruction – would be presented as a ‘victory’ for the Kremlin.
The stakes for Putin are very high. After over a year of combat, he has failed to deliver a decisive and unambiguous victory in his ‘Special Military Operation’ in Donbas. In fact, since August of last year, Ukrainian forces have re-taken approximately 50% of the territory seized by Russian troops in their most recent invasion.
The liberation of the provincial capital of Kherson was a humiliation for Putin and he has redoubled his efforts to salvage his reputation as Russia’s ‘strong man’ with the brutal onslaught on Bakhmut. It has been a very costly campaign for the Russian military with losses estimated as high as 500 killed on each day of the offensive.
A decisive moment has been reached in recent days. In the tactical, strategic and political realms, Bakhmut is another turning point in Putin’s war on Ukraine. From the tactical perspective, Ukraine’s armed forces are staging a limited withdrawal to prepared defensive positions on the western approaches to Bakhmut. These defensive positions are located to the west of the river Bakhmukta.
This limited withdrawal serves two purposes. As Putin desperately pours thousands of inexperienced reservists into the area, there is a risk of Bakhmut being encircled, therefore cutting off Ukrainian defenders there. By securing a heavily defended exit corridor, Ukraine’s forces can continue to re-supply and defend Bakhmut whilst also allowing for a complete withdrawal if their perimeter collapses under sheer weight of Russian numbers.
From a tactical perspective, Ukaine’s dogged defence of Bakhmut also draws thousands of Russian and Wagner Group mercenaries into what is effectively a ‘killing zone’ for Putin’s forces. The urban warfare in and around Bakhmut resembles the trench warfare of World War 1. Ukrainian commanders report ‘human wave’ type infantry assaults on their positions – with hundreds of Russian reservists cut down in these frontal attacks.
Ukrainian commanders’ reports also reveal Putin’s desperation to secure a victory here. Russian attack helicopters are being used to attack Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut – despite their vulnerability to superior Ukrainian man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) supplied by NATO member states. Russian forces are also using surveillance drones in the area along with so-called ‘Khamikaze’ drones supplied by Iran. In short, Russia is throwing the kitchen sink at Bakhmut.
But, cracks are beginning to appear. Ukrainian commanders have reported encountering Russian T62 tanks in armoured assaults on their positions. These tanks are over sixty years old and it is believed that Russia has re-conditioned up to 800 of these obsolete battle tanks to replace the very large number of T72 tanks destroyed by western weapons. The T62 tanks are particularly vulnerable to western anti-armour weapons – as they have no explosive anti-armour protection.
There are also reports of elderly Russian BTR-50 armoured personnel carriers appearing on the battlefield. These Soviet-era armoured fighting vehicles are of a design that is 70 years old and again are evidence of a desperate attempt to replace Russian armour destroyed in the war to date.
Strategically, cracks are also appearing in Putin’s ‘coalition’ of mercenaries and Chechen units deployed to Ukraine. In the last 24 hours, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary formation which styles itself the ‘Wagner Group’ has criticised the Russian general staff for failing to supply his forces with sufficient ammunition for the battle of Bakhmut. On these supply issues, on his Telegram channel, Prigozhin went so far to as to state ‘For now, we are trying to figure out the reason: is it just ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal?’
Whilst Prigozhin has openly criticised the Russian General Staff previously, to do so now, at this sensitive moment, is an indirect – but blunt and explicit – criticism of Putin himself. Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen mercenary group deployed to Ukraine has also voiced such criticisms.
The fact that these mercenary groups are operating so openly alongside Russian military formations represents a serious undermining of the rule of law – such as it is – in Putin’s Russian Federation. The fact that they are now openly critical of his regime is evidence of the strain this failed military ‘operation’ is placing on the Kremlin in general and Putin in particular.
Politically and diplomatically, as Russian supplies come under increasing pressure, there has been increased speculation as to whether or not China will supply lethal aid – weapons – to Putin. China has already supplied non-lethal aid to Moscow and it is reported that a number of Chinese aviation technology companies have been in talks with their Russian counterparts with a view to supplying ‘Kamikhaze’ drones and dual use technologies that could be deployed in Ukraine.
Western analysts believe that if China were to provide lethal aid to Putin at this sensitive moment, it would ‘escalate’ and ‘prolong’ the war in Ukraine. It would also bring China into direct confrontation with Europe and the United States and would likely provoke a round of trade disruption and sanctions – on an economy that is relatively fragile.
Some hawkish analysts suggest that if China were to get directly involved in Putin’s war, it would provide the United States with a basis upon which to step up military aid to Taiwan and to engage in efforts to further undermine China’s status as an emerging superpower. There are even some in the US military who believe that now is the time to confront China – before it fully develops and consolidates its status as a ‘military’ superpower.
Globally, the current phase of the war in Ukraine brings with it the risks of an escalated and prolonged conflict. For Ukraine, Zelensky’s government has re-affirmed its commitment to defending Bakhmut and to defeat Putin’s forces in the field. Ukraine’s achievements in this regard are unparalleled. Her resilience as a nation and the bravery and tenacity of her armed forces have halted Putin’s invasion in its tracks. They will no doubt continue to regain territory and will likely seek to re-take Putin’s land-corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula.
All of this is coming at a horrific human cost. Putin has repeatedly committed war crimes on the people of Ukraine and moves are underway to establish some sort of legal mechanism to bring him and his general staff to justice in due course.
Today, the focus of world attention is on Bakhmut. I believe that Ukraine will mount a major counter-offensive in the coming weeks and months. This will most likely be directed at the Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblasts towards Berdyansk. This would have the effect of cutting off Putin’s land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula. This would prove an unambiguous and decisive defeat for Putin in Ukraine. It is anyone’s guess as to how he and the Kremlin would respond to that.
In the meantime, President Biden’s administration has privately asked Zelensky and his government to consider and prepare a basis for the conclusion of the fighting in Ukraine. These calls were echoed by NATO in its recent meetings in Germany.
Some NATO sources have indicated that short of NATO membership, a permanent ‘Defence Pact’ might be negotiated with Ukraine – alongside accelerated membership of the European Union. Some have gone so far as to state that some of these measures might be explored or announced at NATO’s annual summit in July of this year.
Whatever the short-term outcome of the battle for Bakhmut and the overall war in Ukraine, it is clear that Putin’s acts of aggression have failed on every level, militarily, ethically, legally and politically. At this point, it is a matter for President Zelensky and the government and people of Ukraine to consider and decide how they move forward. But there is no doubting Ukraine’s resolve throughout this conflict and that of the EU and NATO in supporting them in whatever course of action they choose to pursue.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is currently an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Eireann.
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