Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
EARLIR THIS MONTH, it was reported that Elon Musk, the unelected head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US, had become a father again:
“The biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse,” Musk said in 2019, referring to the evidence of multiple countries around the world experiencing an accelerating decline in birth rates.
Musk believes that “people are going to have to revive the idea having children as a kind of social duty otherwise, civilisation will just die,” he said in a 2014 interview, per biographer Walter Isaacson.
Vice-president JD Vance agrees.
“I want more babies in the United States of America,” he said in his first address to the United States after becoming vice president.
In late January, a Department of Transportation memo directed the agency to prioritise projects that ‘give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average’.
A new concept of ‘pronatalism’ is gaining momentum. But it is a false god.
Pronatalism can be defined as the belief that having children is important to the greater good whereas declining birth rates are a threat to national stability and growth.
While the United Nations reports that the rate of new people being born is definitely slowing down, the global population is expected to continue growing for many more decades.
The real question that is not being asked by pronatalists is whether the global population has already surpassed the ability of the planet to sustain it.
The reality is that growth always ends. There will come a point where the population grows beyond the ability of the planet to sustain it, and there are clear warnings that we have already passed that point.
The UN expects the global population to reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. By 2100, the organisation expects there will be 11.2 billion people on the planet.
These figures take into account births and deaths. What is not being fed into the equation is the way in which human growth is finally bumping up against the physical limits of our biosphere. Sooner or later, one way or another, these limits will drive a radical transformation of human civilisation.
Many people assume that the human population can continue to grow exponentially forever. Musk in particular seems to think that we will soon be populating Mars and that will solve the problem of a trashed planet as we move onwards and upwards.
But not only is the population growing exponentially – so too are human greenhouse gas emissions, at a rate of 2.2% per year. Before James Watt patented his steam engine in 1781, the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was 280 ppm, with a climate that was stable.
At 2.2% annual growth, the cumulative growth of CO2 dumped into the atmosphere is doubling every 30 years. By 2014, CO2 concentrations had risen to 400 ppm and three decades later in 2044 are predicted to reach 520 ppm.
In other words, growth starts slowly, but the early 21st century has seen a sea change in growth of greenhouse gas emissions that continues on an explosive trajectory of doubling approximately every three decades.
Peter Kalmus, climate scientist and author of Being the Change (2017) sums up the reality by saying this is why he is ‘certain that global fossil fuelled industrial civilisation will soon end, one way or another.’
The global population growth peaked at 2.2% per year in 1963, the year I was born when there were 3.2 billion people, equivalent to 190,000 new humans per day. By 2014, growth had decreased to 1.1% per year, but because there were now 7 billion people, this translated to 217,000 additional people each day.
The main reason for the slowing of birth rates is the empowerment of women with improved access to both education and contraception. When women gain control over family planning and have career options, they tend to delay having families and have fewer children.
However, the UN predicts population growth to 9.7 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 with growth of about 0.1% per year. The global replacement rate is 2.3 children per woman: if no person had more than two children, the global population would steadily come back down to earth.
At this point, there is a systemic problem. Falling fertility rates challenge the global economy, but continued population growth is unsustainable.
The system that supports continued existence on the planet is called the biosphere. The biosphere provides food, water, oxygen, waste removal, a stable and temperature climate and protection from harmful solar radiation. These systems do not exist in isolation but are powerfully interconnected. You can’t grow food without water, and the distribution of water across the globe, as it is becoming increasingly apparent with the increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods globally, is dependent on a stable climate. The population has already grown to a point that has put these life-supporting systems under pressure.
Kalmus questions whether we can sustain the amount of food we grow indefinitely. “Nonhuman animals are quite literally under relentless systematic attack from a mechanised and militarised global economy of nearly 8 billion humans; but ultimately the only way to avoid the sixth mass extinction is to address the underlying causes.”
If eight billion humans (living and eating as we’re actually living and eating today) is beyond carrying capacity, what is the sustainable limit?
Kalmus states that some evidence supports the Earth’s carrying capacity at about 4 billion. This is based on the average land required to support one average person globally, including ecosystem services. A paper in Population and Environment (1994) suggested that the 1994 global population of 5.5 billion “clearly exceeded the capacity of the Earth to sustain it.”
Obviously the carrying capacity would increase with more people being vegetarian. Eliminating meat consumption would double the carrying capacity to 8 billion and eliminating food waste (about a third of food is wasted) would potentially increase carrying capacity by another quarter – about one or two billion people.
Exponential population growth in the last century has been intrinsic to intensive agriculture that involves high yielding crops, irrigation, nitrogen fertiliser and chemical pesticides.
Now genetically modified organisms have been added to the mix. But intensive agriculture comes at a cost, with the biosphere under increasing threat.
The real question about global fertility rates is not the threats to national economies and society from falling births, but the absolute imperative for the fertility rate to fall exponentially- particularly in countries with the highest carbon footprint.
Countries such as China, the US, India and Russia need to reduce both their populations and their carbon footprint if we are to have the remotest chance of preventing a global economy that is based on exponential growth from eating the planet alive.
Rather that focusing on ways to maintain consumerism and endless growth maintained by high fertility rates, Trump and his allies would do well to focus all their energies on searching for ways that societies can live on Earth in alignment with the fantastically complex biosphere we were born into.
Dr Catherine Conlon is a public health doctor in Cork.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
As the CPA is dependent on borrowing billions then it´s not in Labour or FGs control to promise it will be honoured. They can promise what they want, but they´re clinging on for a global economic boom to save the day which may or may not come in time for them.
Hate to break it to you Neil, but the CPA is saving the country BILLIONS over the lifetime of the agreement. Staff numbers are being cut across the board as well. Now as much as it pains you, our country needs a public service, and the people working in it deserve to be paid like anybody else in employment. Why the infantile vendetta? They’ve already seen a 14% pay cut and the public sector numbers is being reduced by around the same amount
Every second post I’ve seen from you on here has ‘CPA’, ‘PS’, and ‘SW’ in it. It’s like you attack them so often you’ve had to abbreviate the words so you’ll have enough time in your day left to get stuff done.
Too Trueleft, the problem with the CPA is that it is not at all discerning. Whomever leaves the service, leaves. So you can’t decide to cut a quango or other body we decide we no longer need to prioritise nursing, teaching, Garda or other numbers.
I recall the story in a quango of a senior director leaving (and lo, the sky didn’t fall in without his six-figure salaried self around) and his secretary kept her job, but with nothing to do but cover reception now and then.
Meanwhile in a hospital I know of, a specialist testing lab has lost 3 of 4 technicians and has to close when the remaining one takes a (well deserved) holiday. This despite patient numbers being up.
The CPA looks after the boys, not the people.
Here Here, Too Trueleft. It’s the guy & gal at the lower & middle income level who are bearing the brunt of the cuts. Not those at the top & there’s Jack O’Connor fighting austerity on over E100k a year. It’s time we all stopped this public/private divide. All of us on lower & middle level pay are equally affected by austerity. It’s those at the top in the public service at least who are getting paid way too much. Look at our “socialist” President on up to E240k a year, our Taoiseach on E200k a year, Táiniste on up to E190k a year. Bertie on up to E150k a year pension. Is this nation broke ? Start at the top.
The “boys” at the top, Aaron. Those on the lower & middle income levels are just as screwed as anyone else.
@Too Trueleft
I´m just telling the hard facts. You might like to ignore the fact the 40% of PS pay is coming from borrowing, as you might have to address some awkward questions. Sorry to burst your bubble. PS wages are going to come down one way or the other unless we get an export driven economic boom, i.e. other countries start booming. Maybe by hard political decisions, or maybe by leaving the euro and paying the PS in a devalued currency, but massive budget deficits are unsustainable for long for a small country like Ireland.
I hope the PS are paid much the same in real terms in 3 years time. Because that can only happen if the world economy has been booming and we´re making billions more from exports. It certainly won´t happen by lumping up taxes as you might prefer.
Hey Declan – See http://www.realpay.ie (a petition for pols to lower their salaries and expenses.) I agree.
“If our tax-raising capacity has been permanently and significantly reduced, isn’t it time that state spending was permanently and significantly reduced too? Government receipts (including social insurance) are expected to be around €50 billion this year, down 17% from their level in 2007. Gross government spending is expected to be €70 billion, up 12% from its 2007 level (with only half of that increase due to increased social spending following increased unemployment). Our national solvency is being held hostage by a public sector which has yet to adjust to Ireland’s permanently reduced circumstances.
Allowing Ireland access to the ESM cookie jar from 2014 onwards would only give the public sector another excuse to delay its long-overdue adjustment to reality. If we haven’t fixed this by 2014 it’s not more financial methadone Ireland’s public sector will need, it will be financial cold turkey.”
Cormac Lucey
@ Aaron. The reductions in numbers under the CPA are voluntary and not compulsory. Where appropriate, staff are being redeployed. Also, governments cut quangos, not the public service. I read your column attacking the public service which displayed a breathtaking ignorance to the actual current state of crisis it finds itself in and efforts of the VAST majority of staff to get things done. It could only have been written by the diector of a private company. May I suggest you put your efforts into attacking the issues your own company has with processing orders instead of the public service before you lose even more customers. I used to be a regular customer of Kompletts.
Sean – I’m in the PS & not on the high income many think we are. I’m down a full pay cheque a month. Multiply that by 12 months & there y’are. As I said before, it’s the guy & gal in the low & middle ( in both sectors ) who are being screwed to the wall. It’s to the top in the public sector at least who need adjusting. There are many people I work with who can barely keep their heads above water. Aaron – I clicked into that when u first announced it & agree with u. Don’t know if it is making a difference to date. Is it ?
Too Trueleft, when you can’t play the ball anymore play the man, eh? Customer satisfaction and repeat business is up, thanks.
To the substantive issue of the article, there is a direct link between the CPA and worsening conditions in our hospitals and schools. You can cut a quango brand, but you can’t let the people go. Not let them go because they’re not good workers – But let them go so you can give the budget for their salary to a nurse, or a teacher.
My local hospital is closing another 31 beds today, after 28 going in October. They don’t have the nurses to manage the wards and their agency budget is being cut. I don’t think the secretary to a retired director can be redeployed to do their job, or teach a class.
If you make no choices, the choices will be made for you.
@ Neil. 40% of the PS wage bill needs to be borrowed due to a collapse in the tax take as a result of the disasterous economic policies of FF. Wheres your vitriol for the people who got us into this mess instead of the 300,000 public servants who go to work, pay ALL of their income tax on time and spend their salary in the economy? Are you that blinded by hatred that you dont’t realise that further cutting the pay of over a quater of a million people in a country with half the population of the city of london is going to help us?
Aaron, my point is that the article you wrote on the public service showed a blind ignorance and could only have been written by somebody like you. The public service is not a company. Its primary purpose is to serve the public interest and not turn a profit. Trying to apply private sector principals to a sector that exists for completely different purposes is ridiculous. And I stand by my comments about Komplett under your stewardship. If your company was running the public service, I’d order an ambulance on monday, ring the following monday to find out that somebody else ordered it while it was in my checkout basket, then receive a fire engine 2 weeks later without the hose to connect it to the main.
@TooTrueLeft
It´s not a question of what should have been done (although obviously dampening down the property bubble AND the massive increase in government expenditure it temporarily propped up, would have avoided all this mess) . That takes us nowhere forward.
In the end it comes down to the sums, and economic factors outside our control. If there is no global economic boom, if things continue to stagnate, then the idea that a government can sign a piece of paper which guarantees they will have the money to pay so and so at such a rate for years into the future is just rubbish. If the money is not there, if nobody will give us enough of it, then you won´t have it to spend.
Too Trueleft, your point is really on the button: The public service is there to serve the public interest. Closing hospital wards whilst keeping the same number of individuals in local authority planning departments (because none choose to leave) when there’s no development is not serving the public interest.
Government is making no choices. It could choose to lead a line directly from cutting departments, quangos and local authorities to preserving hospitals, schools and Gardai.
@ Aaron. Or they could increase the taxes on the Aarons of this world and close the loopholes and tax breaks that also favour the Aarons of this world. Then we could avoid the problems you’ve mentioned.
Hi all, thanks for your comments. Just a reminder that we don’t allow personal attacks on individuals, including other commenters. Play the ball not the man and all that.
You can have a read of our comments policy here: http://www.thejournal.ie/comments-policy/. Thanks!
Too Trueleft, keep playing that ball, eh? Tax increases have worked so well to date you are correct. Let’s pile on more? Indeed, it’s not the Aaron’s of this world suffering the most – The marginal rate of tax hits 50% at €32,800. If you earn the average salary of €36,000 then the government will take €1,600 of the difference between those two sums.
When you count in VAT and income taxes to find total tax burden between those two taxes, the only people who pay more than the top 10 per cent of earners is the bottom 10 per cent. But hey, we jacked up VAT 2 per cent in the latest budget. Go talk to all the retailers that have shut down since then, or the folks trying to make ends meet.
The left wing “Tax everything” approach eventually harms everyone, too.
But hey, if you want to introduce a 50 cent tax rate or similar I have no problem with that. (Your difficulty is that, as in the UK, most of the people it will target will simply leave and you’ll end up losing money overall when they take the investment money with them.) As it is I give the Minister just shy of half of what I earn.
That still won’t cover the deficit, though.
@Too Trueleft
We know exactly where Aaron works and what business he runs…we even know his real name. Perhaps you could even the playing field and let us know what exact job you do in the public service?
Scrap the coke park deal for those above a certain salary cut their salaries, cut cut cut cut the wealthy , tax tax tax the wealthy use the cash to create jobs for the unemployed , so they can begin to contribute to the economy again, that’s what Gilmore would be doing if the man had any balls. No more elites in this country having it their own way a level competitive playing field for all.
They’ll honour an agreement that looks after their special interest groups (who donate the most to Labour) at cost to the rest of us.
Not one ineffective Quango will be cut in favour of preserving nurses in our hospitals.
Maybe I missed it but im curious as to your alternative to the CPA? And to anyone with a bit of cop on it was obvious nothing would be done to threaten it, 18 months of cooperation or 18 months of work to rule and strikes. Which one did you think the gov would pick?
Scarr, I’m not sure a person who shows up to Connolly Hospital today to discover A&E understaffed and a 31 bed ward closed, or the person whose operation will be cancelled and deferred because of that, really cares about work to rules; and I doubt, from my conversations with frontline staff like nurses, that they’d participate.
You’re essentially correct: Industrial peace has been secured at the price of services to the frontline.
My last reply must have been too awesome for the journal to handle as it has not shown up. I made the point that services have been maintained and not sacrificed. It’s easy to say what should be done when you don’t actually have to make that decision
Also you’ve not yet given an alternative.
Nice to hear Mr Gilmore will honor something, albeit an agreement that accommodates the select few in our society, Pity Mr Gilmore has developed selective amnesia when it comes to other commitments he offered when seeking election to Government. Perhaps Mr Gilmore should look carefully at recent Poll’s dealing with his and his parties performance to date.
Frankfurts way or Labours way it all sounds so hollow now it’s hard to respect or believe anything he says anymore its all about sound bites and no substance
U hit the nail on the head there, Raymelody.
Its a pity he didn’t honour the agreement he made with the electorate before the last election.
“Government” and “Honour” are two words that don’t really go together here in Ireland.
Damn! There goes the country down the tubes ..
They won’t break this promise because if they did saying that they couldn’t afford it they think there would be riots in the streets because they can’t afford to pay the senior bond holders but they honour that one.
Neil what line of work are you in? Arm chair analyst? You’re comments are always negative and ill-thought. Get a life.
Play the ball. Not the man DOC.
Gilmore
WE do not believe you and why should we ? You have lied from day one of taking office and lied to get there !
Can anyone tell me how much SW, pensions and public pay will have to be cut to balance the budget? What will the water and property charges end up being?
The troika plan set out these cuts but they were also projecting growth rates of between .5 and 2.5% over the course of the austerity package. This clearly wont happen as we have near negative growth.
Does the country need a stimulus every year, e.g. 2 billion to be put into public infrastructure every year which would be paid off as part of a long term loan with repayments only beginning in say 2020.
No surprises there. Labour supporting productivity enhancing initiatives that could increase the live register? Methinks not. Going along with FF plans is political tactics and lacks creativity & leadership. A natural attrition strategy is not reform. C’mon Leo, let’s here it!
Government will honor Croke Farce Agreement, but promises to abolish upward only rent reviews can be safely dishonoured. After all, who among the political elite have any respect for the retail sector?
The rent reviews are not being tackled as that whole arrangement is tied into nama and the amounts they purchased properties from the banks for.
Tear up all contracts now and issue 1 yearly contracts with lower wages for all above 30K. We are broke. People are looking for 50% write down on mortgages so why not the same rule for wages.
Whatever about salaries, why would you put people on 1 year contracts, what would making them insecure in their jobs achieve, would you like to whip them to work is that it?
Ah ref?! He was all over me
One things for sure it’s pointless overpaying the public service if the money is going to pay Ponzi Mortgages to Ponzi Corrupt Banks.
In the private sector, if you cant pay your mortgage, then you cant pay your mortgage.
just tax the rich , problem solved
The FF led government of the previous fourteen years implemented the policies of the Irish property industry and destroyed the entire economy.
This same property industry now claim that the “abolition of the upward only rent review clause in commercial leases will lead to an average of 20-30% decline in Irish commercial property prices.
Commercial property should be a service to enterprise,trade and employment. Irish commercial lease law i.e UORRs tied to long leases, destroyed all three.
In a democracy power comes from the ballot box. The Irish people have spoken. Over 80% of the Dail were elected on a manifesto that included the abolition of the UORR lease clause and an open market rent review for all commercial tenants this year. Minister Shatter has stated on live TV and restated twice in the written media “that he is consulting with the AG on this legacy UORR issue and he will bring legislation to the Dail as expeditiously as possible“ The Irish government have spoken.
A 1 year guarantee of a job is like gold these days – who else in the country has that ? Private business people don’t know if they will survive and people on unemployment have no guarantee it will be maintained.
We are also borrowing the money and there is no guarantee that we will be able to keep borrowing.
have your say