WHEN THE DUST has settled and the final counts are in the real work of government formation begins. No doubt party leaders and interested politicians and advisers have already been mulling it over for the last few days.
There are several considerations in forming a government. First, a leader must be clear on how many seats they hold themselves and how many they need. This is why the last few seats can have a big impact on the final formation. The priority is to have a stable government. One that can implement policy and resist people walking out or collapsing the government mid term especially if there may be difficult budgets or spending decisions ahead.
Those who have experience of government know that it is no easy job and once in there you are often faced with choices on who or what to let down even when you have lots of resources never mind if things get tight. Brian Lenihan Senior once told me, “The best day in government is the day you are elected to it. After that, it’s all downhill.” It was a typically honest summary of a job that entails endless decisions and never the possibility of pleasing everyone.
What we do know so far is that Fianna Fáil will be the largest party by some distance and therefore will be central to coalition talks. The numbers do not exist for a government without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. The obvious choice for FF in the first instance is to talk with FG as this was an arrangement that worked reasonably well and provided very close to a Dáil majority.
In another world or age, Fianna Fáil might have other options. It has a republican centre left record too and could have easily partnered with Sinn Féin. After all, it was FF that was the architect of the peace process and its leaders that were always closer and more understanding of SF in decades gone by. Michéal Martin is different and displays a deep ideological and principled opposition to SF. Therefore, he chose at a critical time in 2020 to bring FF closer to FG.
That will not change now. Martin can feel that the recent electoral success is a vindication of his approach, and his position as leader is stronger than ever. He will return to Fine Gael, even if it will worry some in his party that it may mark a watershed and FF may never escape this embrace after another five-year date.
In 1992 nobody thought Labour could go into government with Fianna Fáil until FF in a brilliant move speedily got offers on the table that were so attractive to Labour, they undercut all other options. Could Sinn Féin try a similar stunt? Could they offer FF a hugely attractive offer to tempt them, giving guarantees, jobs and serious policy concessions?
Unlikely, because Sinn Féin will not be desperate to get into government. Despite what they say about the dangers of an FF/FG coalition, they will believe another five years in opposition may not be the worst.
Some Fine Gael would not mind seeing Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin in government, but Simon Harris is not one of these. So, the two leaders will have a call and start the dealmaking process. Once upon a time, a party with significantly more seats who not entertain a rotating Taoiseach, but Harris knows Martin has no where to go. He can’t claim he could get a better deal with SF so Harris knows he can insist on some redlines like rotating Taoiseach.
The big question is who will be going in with them. They only need maybe three or four to get to a majority. Bertie Ahern suggested that with tough decisions coming the government would need about 94 seats to be safe. That however is a very Bertie view.
There are few smarter at putting a government together but it is also dependent on a few assumptions. It makes sense because inevitably you might lose a few TDs along the way. A scandal, a by-election or any other mishap could ruin your government if you have only a bare majority. So, it’s nice to have a few seats over. However, a government that knows that it could fall at any time and that it must have absolute discipline on every vote can tend to focus its mind a lot better.
People are much less inclined to just vote against an issue or throw toys out of the pram if it means they might bring down a government every time. So don’t underestimate the power of a slim majority to keep people in line.
Sinn Féin will do some talking, but it will largely be ceremonial. The Labour Party and the Social Democrats are the ones to watch first. It is natural that they will take some time and probably talk to each other first. There is a problem for these two parties, though. They are effectively the same vote. If one goes into government and the other stays in opposition then it is highly likely that the one in government will be outflanked by its opposition opponent leading to big losses at the next election.
They will both want to be in together so their rival does not get an advantage. Bacik has also said that it would strengthen their negotiating position. That’s true. But it might strengthen it too much. Government is also about thinking of the next election and providing ministers to constituencies and profiles to your people. FF and FG already have to split all the jobs between them. A third bloc with more than 20 seats will expect a big chunk more jobs and policy concessions. Far more than their votes might actually be worth.
There is another issue. People tend to think parties will be more stable because they are whipped, and in general that’s true. But it doesn’t stand up in terms of government crisis. The problem with parties is that if you do lose them, you lose all of them in one go. The PDs, and Labour, both walked out of government before. Parties can easily pull down a government to get their way. Their bloc of votes is essentially one vote decided by the party leader and what they want.
So, there is the final real option that will be considered. Independents. There are options here too. You could look to the likes of Independent Ireland, the hybrid party. But nobody is sure how this works and while some of its individuals are attractive to the government others are not and the grouping has some demands and policy positions in the environmental and social spaces that no modern government in Europe could deliver on.
They have likely overplayed and certainly over-talked their hand and demands.
Then there is a chance to have some independents who may want a seat at Cabinet as happened in 2016. The option here is to get them right into the tent and give them a key area to deliver on. Some might like the idea. Kevin “Boxer” Moran was part of such an arrangement before. But they can be rare. Then there are independents who give their support in return for specific promises. These can be constituency issues, social issues, infrastructural issues etc. but they are specific.
Governments have often used them and they have a decent record of holding up once the Independent knows their constituency seat is safe thanks to local delivery. This will be an attractive option, but it may take a little time to negotiate and give the Whips’ office a headache.
So, the options may look to be multiple right now, but they will start to narrow pretty quickly. Nobody will want this to drag on. The aim will be to get it done by Christmas, but they won’t know how difficult that is until they sit at a table and talk.
Johnny Fallon is a political commentator, author and voice of ‘The Johnny Fallon Podcast’.
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