LAST UPDATE | 3 Dec

AS WE WENT to the polls on Friday, a new study from US scientists confirmed that climate change is making the jet stream “wobblier” and “wavier”, bringing more extreme weather to north-western Europe. As the ballots were poured onto tables in count centres on Saturday and the results began to emerge, the temperature in Dublin topped 16C, on the last day of November.

Just a week ago, Storm Bert was wreaking havoc along the west coast. But just as climate change is literally hitting home, by Sunday evening the Green Party, long-time advocates for climate action, had lost 11 of their 12 seats. What does this say about what Ireland thinks about climate change, and what does it mean for climate action over the next five years?

The political reality is that smaller coalition parties almost always pay a price for going into Government. Our electoral system is proportional, but voters don’t have to be. Voters can give a party 7% in one election and then abandon them at the next election when they don’t achieve 100% of their policies in a coalition government. Voters for smaller parties are more likely to say their vote is based on values or ideology (59% of Green voters compared to 16% of FF/FG voters according to Ireland Thinks). And even “climate voters” aren’t single-issue.

According to the Exit Poll 51% of Green Party voters said climate was the issue that decided their vote, so it wasn’t for 49%. The Greens almost certainly attracted more generally progressive voters back in 2020 and this time those voters could, and clearly did, shift to other centre-left parties that hadn’t compromised on housing or immigration by being in government with two centre-right parties.

Popularity

Another factor is that all coalition partners claim credit for policies that are popular, like more rural link buses in Kerry. But policies that are unpopular are blamed on the smaller coalition partner. The carbon tax is a classic example. Its effectiveness is debatable, but one thing is for sure, the decision to raise it every year to 2030 was taken by Fine Gael in 2019, before the Greens were in Government. That is not what the public thinks!

Moreover, no effort was made to ensure the public understood that the impact of the carbon tax on fuel prices was 2c a year. Putin drove petrol prices for the last few years, not the carbon tax. And VAT and excise make up 70c of the price of a litre of petrol compared to 15c carbon tax. When did you last hear any politician say that?

There is also a more general media and political narrative that climate action is a cost. Leaving aside the economic reality that the cost of inaction is far higher than the cost of action, to a significant degree this narrative is a result of the way the centre-right frames climate action, as primarily a matter of individual behaviour change. Leo Varadkar said as much launching Richard Bruton’s Climate Action Plan in 2019, the idea was to “nudge people and businesses to change behaviour”. Friends of the Earth doesn’t think that will be fast enough or, crucially, fair enough. We want the state to lead the transformation of our energy, transport, housing and food systems to make zero-pollution options accessible, affordable and appealing for all in a way that reduces poverty and inequality.

Judging by their manifestos, Labour, the Soc Dems, the Greens, People Before Profit and Sinn Féin share that analysis. But the Greens struggled to articulate that vision from Government, or to be seen to prioritise it enough. In the context of a cost of living crisis, it’s crucial to present climate action as a way to improve the quality of life for everyone, now, not just for those who can afford electric cars or expensive retrofits. And not just to safeguard our children’s future, fundamental as that is.

The climate question

But I don’t see the outcome of the election as a vote against climate action. Yes, climate was only 6th on the list of issues that swayed voters, down from 5th in 2020, but still ahead of crime, childcare and value for money in public spending, all issues that will get plenty of political and media attention in the years ahead. A striking finding in the Exit Poll was that 51% of voters thought the outgoing government “has not gone far enough to address climate change”, compared to 20% who thought they had gone too far.

Crucially, 47% of Fianna Fáil voters and 44% of Fine Gael voters think the Government they led hasn’t gone far enough. Only 14% of them think the Government went too far, compared to 46% of Independent Ireland voters. Anti-Green sentiment inside Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may be the squeaky wheel, but it doesn’t represent what those parties’ voters think about climate action. We’ll be making sure the party leaders remember that. And of course, the imperative to radically reduce polluting emissions by 2030 is now embedded in national law for the first time, adopted on a cross-party basis by the last Dáil, as well as in regulations agreed with our EU partners.

But I don’t agree with Ivan Yates, who said over the weekend that domestic politics is almost irrelevant, and that EU directives alone will drive the green transition. Ireland has a long history of foot-dragging and potential fines. And we know powerful vested interests have already been lobbying Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to dilute, delay or derail any efforts to tackle big corporate pollution.

But Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael also voted for the climate law, and say they remain committed to its obligations. They know the EPA, the Advisory Council, and the Oireachtas all have a formal role in oversight and accountability. They know national organisations like Friends of the Earth and local groups around the country will be positively pushing for a Programme for Government that reflects Ireland’s climate commitments and leaves no one behind.

The media now treat climate like the mainstream policy issue it is. And the opportunity for legal cases to enforce Irish and EU law will abound if the next Government slow-walks or backtracks on its climate commitments or prioritises fossil fuel infrastructure and polluting industries.

In the meantime, two facts remain undeniably true. Climate breakdown is accelerating and if left unchecked, its impacts will destroy our way of life. And every tonne of pollution we stop, every faction of a degree of warming we avoid, will make the future better for everyone.

Oisín Coghlan is Chief Executive of Friends of the Earth Ireland.