FOR THE PAST few months, the political chattering classes in this country have been speculating pretty much incessantly about when An Taoiseach Simon Harris TD will call a general election.

The consensus from those who frequent Leinster House and its environs is that the popular Fine Gael leader – his 55% approval rating in the recent Irish Times/Ipsos poll has to be gratifying – must go prior to Christmas, probably in November.

Indeed, experienced, astute journalists have gone so far as to assert that it would constitute political malpractice, per se, if Harris and Co. were to delay the inevitable until early 2025, rather than going to the people imminently. Their analysis is undeniably persuasive.

The case for early

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are surging. Sinn Féin is on the ropes and somewhat adrift at the moment. The Government will reap rewards from a generous budget. In January and February, the weather will be miserable; everyone will be broke; the winter flu will be rampant; the hospitals will be bursting at the seams; other currently unforeseeable bad stuff could happen; etc.

Be bold. Avoid the mistakes of your predecessors. And go sooner, not later. That is the collective message of the commentariat to the 37-year-old Taoiseach, who is possessed of seemingly boundless energy and enthusiasm for his still new job. The favourable figures in the aforementioned poll and the just announced visit Simon Harris will make to the White House in October to bid farewell to President Joe Biden bolster the merits of the argument for late 2024. The implication of what many “in the bubble” say and write is that they are nearly positive, deep down, that Harris will go to the Áras shortly.

Why the rush?

But as unassailable as the case may be in some ways, I have never fully bought in. I am not sure he will call the general election in the coming weeks, nor am I convinced that November is necessarily very opportune and that February is necessarily terribly ill-considered.

Three things are worth noting initially. The deal-breaker frequently cited by the majority – that the Government would have to schedule by-elections to replace TDs transferring to the European Parliament if they waited until close to the end of term – has evaporated. There is wiggle room on that front, and there will be no by-elections, no matter what.

Also, politicians everywhere are, appropriately, wary with respect to elections. The inherent instinct of most incumbents is to shrink from, not run toward, the ultimate judgment of the citizenry. And the buzz, according to Ivan Yates’ sources at the Fine Gael think-in and some in the media present, was that, to their surprise and consternation, February 2025 was appearing likely.

Let’s get to the facts. First, Simon Harris, Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Green Party Leader Roderic O’Gorman have been fairly insistent that they are continuing to 2025, even though their language is intermittently ambiguous and immediately thereafter, seized upon by those who allege they are being economical with the truth. Harris, in particular, has been emphatic.

In the annual Noel Whelan Interview with Sinéad McSweeney at this year’s Kennedy Summer School which covered a lot more than politics, the Taoiseach said on multiple occasions that the general election would be in 2025, despite not having been asked. Typically, regardless of the venue or audience, he is resolute in his pronouncements.

Inside baseball

Those who look on sceptically when he reiterates his intentions opine that, if he goes back on his word, it will be an issue for 24 hours and swiftly recede. Voters don’t care and the focus will move quickly to the dynamics of the campaign and the challenges facing the nation. The opposition wants a 2024 contest and won’t kick up too big a fuss over it.

I wouldn’t bank on that. One of the hallmarks of Fine Gael and the parties it is allied to will be stability and trust in a climate of global uncertainty. Doing a 180 on the date when we get to exercise our sacred right isn’t a hanging offence, yet it could undermine a central, advantageous narrative and Harris’ personal appeal.

Second, half of the Fine Gael representatives in the Dáíl are not seeking another mandate. Some are being succeeded by an heir apparent. These individuals are well-known in their localities and throughout their constituencies. Others are not and need extra time to establish a higher profile.

It is cogently contended that they will benefit from a generic Fine Gael vote. That is true to an extent. However, in a context in which the old fault lines are fading and a large, growing segment of the population discerns no difference between the Taoiseach’s party and Fianna Fáil, could Fine Gael lose first preferences from voters who had supported its standard bearers to their coalition partner on the basis of name recognition?

Third, while “unknown unknowns” – eg, a bike shed – could profoundly alter the state of play and bringing the election forward militates against banana skins cropping up, it is equally a reality that these are as often generated by the campaign itself as by external forces. That will be as true in November as in February. And fourth, the weather in the former will not be measurably superior to the latter; there would actually be a stretch in the evenings for canvassers around Valentine’s Day.

The housing question

There are two further intangibles that have escaped notice. At least in Wicklow Town where I live, there is housing of all types being constructed and completed. I am told that there is similar building elsewhere. Every individual or family who gets the keys to a home embodies a dent in the strident attacks from Sinn Féin et al of the Government’s track record on housing.

Lastly, the eyes of the world are on Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump. Well in excess of a million people here are obsessed with American politics. That is no exaggeration. If a general election were to transpire roughly contemporaneously as this seminal race for the White House, parties and candidates would be competing for attention and oxygen. Daily, friends and neighbours approach me about what’s occurring stateside. They are following it avidly. This should not be underestimated as an X factor.

For all of the above reasons and more, I’m a doubting Thomas. But I’m not making any hard and fast predictions. I’m only sayin’…

Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.