HAVE WE WITNESSED ‘THE MOMENT’ of the general election campaign? Will Simon Harris’s testy encounter in Kanturk with disability worker and activist Charlotte Fallon – for which the Taoiseach, who entered politics partly because he wanted to advocate for persons with disabilities, has apologised sincerely – be a bump in the road or a turning point? The video of his chancing upon Fallon in a supermarket has millions of hits online. He does not emerge favourably from it.
The first draft of this column expressed relief to be examining “normal” politics after the chaos of the presidential election in the United States, and concurred with the assessment of journalists and pundits of the happenings on this side of the Atlantic: “meh.” If the vast majority of people I see on a daily basis are a reliable indicator, the denizens of the commentariat are not wrong.
It has not grabbed popular attention. There is little enthusiasm. The climate has been one of passivity or resignation. “The crowd in power are probably the best of the bunch” is a commonly voiced sentiment. There also is a good deal of support for independents of all stripes borne out of frustration.
There hadn’t been any drama. Unless the opinion polls and, perhaps more tellingly, the bookmakers were completely off the mark, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were nearly fated to be the key parties in the new government. And that may still be the case. Micheál Martin and Simon Harris have been solid, if not spectacular, with the former definitely having fared better in the RTÉ leaders’ debate and the latter traversing constituencies and endeavouring to capitalise on the heralded “Harris bounce.” “I met Simon; I liked him and I think he means well” is a refrain I’ve heard multiple times.
Harris let himself down badly on Friday, however. Will it move the needle discernibly? It might. On the one hand, it will communicate a signal to a swathe of gettable voters that Fine Gael is, at its core, elitist and uncaring. Conversely, it’s fair to assume that those most critical of the Taoiseach’s disposition during the impromptu conversation were never going to back his party.
Fine Gael leader Simon Harris was approached during a canvass this evening by a woman who says she is a carer, and who said she believes the Government has "done nothing for us" | follow live: https://t.co/eUoCK3Qb5Y pic.twitter.com/MXiN9b60Ke
— RTÉ News (@rtenews) November 22, 2024
Mary Lou McDonald continues to demonstrate how formidable she is and, following a difficult period for her personally and politically, Sinn Féin’s slide seems to have abated, though it is hard to conceive of the beleaguered party getting to the Promised Land on this occasion. The “soft left” groupings should do OK, and it will be fascinating to see just how diverse a cadre of independents garner the citizenry’s imprimatur. All could profit from Harris’s misstep.
This campaign has helped bring two quandaries, which, in reality, dwarf any single election in importance, sharply into focus. First, as house prices have increased a further 10% in the last year, is the growing gulf between owners and renters. The despondency of women and men of all ages who are unable to get a mortgage, despite being highly educated and well-paid, has been captured in TV and radio vox pops in recent weeks. Their plight is heart-wrenchingly sad. And they don’t believe politicians will solve the crisis.
Second is how Donald Trump’s imminent return to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue could impact Ireland negatively. Trump is an ardent America Firster who extols tariffs and wants to repatriate US jobs and tax revenue. This country obviously has an awful lot to lose and, while some of the apocalyptic scenarios being sketched are hopefully overwrought, caution with respect to forward planning is entirely appropriate. Yet restraint is conspicuously absent from the manifestos published lately.
It is our responsibility as voters to remain cognisant of these big picture, massively significant matters and to factor them in as we ponder who to place our sacred trust in, notwithstanding a propensity for self-interest and short-termism that is shared by the public and their representatives. To our duties can be added, with kudos to Charlotte Fallon for her gutsy intervention, never abandoning our ambition to be a genuine republic.
What transpired on Friday contributes a further element of intrigue to what are enthralling dogfights unfolding in numerous constituencies. Plenty, even after a rigorous analysis, are truthfully amenable solely to one of these alternative descriptions: either too close or too complex to call.
Four are Wicklow, Galway West, Dublin Central and Donegal. This writer is not as brave as Barry Lenihan, Ivan Yates, et al. As such, there will be no firm predictions made, but I do want to raise a niggling question from each that I am grappling with excessively.
In Wicklow, will Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly retain his seat? He snuck in by a whisker in 2020; he has never had much of a presence on the ground; and he is not a favourite of the local Fianna Fáil grassroots, loads of whom preferred Senator Pat Casey as their standard bearer. Everyone regards health as a challenging portfolio. Donnelly has had successes and he’s had failings. It may boil down to whether the party brand and the Tánaiste can propel him across the line. That is no sure thing and an upset might be in the offing.
In Galway West, was the presumption that “celebrity candidate” Gráinne Seoige would inherit Éamon Ó Cuív’s Connemara seat for Fianna Fáil, potentially comfortably, incorrect? A TG4/Ipsos B&A poll suggests that she is struggling to connect. Seoige clearly benefits from name recognition. That said, rumours have it that she is not as beloved in her native territory as Ó Cuív, that there is scepticism of her newfound zest for politics and that the other Fianna Fáíl aspirant, Councillor John Connolly, may have the edge. Watch that space.
In Dublin Central, could the controversial ex-MEP and ex-TD from north of the capital city, Clare Daly, parachute in and manage an unorthodox comeback? She is reported to have staunch endorsements from those who used to deliver leftist independents Tony Gregory and Maureen O’Sullivan to Leinster House. And in Donegal – where Sinn Féin is very strong, where the treasured family homes of thousands are crumbling due to mica and where many inhabitants of the “forgotten county” harbour an anti-establishment streak – are two Fianna Fáilers, Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue and 76 year old Pat “the Cope” Gallagher, set to prevail? At least one survey says it’s possible.
That result in Donegal would portend an excellent 29 November for Fianna Fáil. And I am leaning in the direction that Micheál Martin & Co may have the broadest smiles on their faces at the count centres ultimately. Of course, that’s just a semi-educated hunch.
But Harris has committed an unforced error, one which some people will be disinclined to ignore or forgive with merely six days to go. A considerable chunk of them are only making their decisions now. We will soon find out how consequential this unfortunate gaffe was.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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