PUTIN’S BRUTAL INVASION of Ukraine, with the explicit intention of wiping a democratic nation off the map, is the starkest possible reminder that we need a mature debate in Ireland about our security and defence.
Our recent inability even to monitor the planned Russian naval manoeuvres off our coast demonstrated that Ireland is ill-equipped, both militarily and psychologically, to defend itself.
Putin’s wider military threats, including against some EU partners, further underline that security is a real-world issue, not a game for domestic political posturing.
Neutrality as a concept
The issues are complex. Ireland’s neutrality confers on us neither a halo nor a badge of shame. There is no reason for either self-righteousness or self-flagellation. The Taoiseach’s suggestion of a citizens’ assembly about Ireland’s security and defence policy is well worth considering.
The long-term question is whether Ireland should, one day, join NATO and accept its Article 5 mutual defence commitment. This, and this alone, would end our military neutrality.
The issues are not as simple as many on both sides of the argument suggest. While arguments can be made, either way, it is certainly unlikely to happen any time soon.
However, there are several shorter-term steps we can take regarding Ireland’s own security and defence that would leave our military neutrality intact.
First, we could increase significantly our expenditure on defence as recommended in the report of the recent Commission on the Future of the Defence Forces. Having a reasonable capacity to defend ourselves concerns our interests and our self-respect, not our neutrality.
Sweden and Finland are neutral countries that spend heavily on their defence. Like Ireland, they are major contributors to UN peacekeeping and have independent and ethical foreign policies. Their perspective differs from ours not because they are remotely trigger-happy, but because their geography obliges them to take the world around them seriously.
Supporting our allies
Second, we should continue to be supportive of the EU as it develops its security dimension. The Irish Government was right to support the EU’s recent ground-breaking decision to send weapons to the beleaguered people of Ukraine, even if the Irish financial contribution to the overall total was channelled through a separate fund for non-lethal assistance. A large majority of Irish people would have expected nothing less. Some probably would have hoped for something more.
A significant recent decision, from the point of view of Ireland’s interests, was the German Government’s decision to commit one hundred billion euros to a new armed forces fund. The challenge for EU countries to take responsibility for defending themselves in an increasingly dangerous world is a real one. It will grow exponentially if Trump, a man who has no commitment to democracy and a weird Putin fascination, returns to power.
Europe can’t afford to await the outcome of the next US election before getting serious about its security. As Ireland continues to reflect on where we wish to fit into Europe’s evolving security architecture, our EU partners deserve our broad blessing. Anything else would be utterly implausible.
Third, we have reason to work ever more closely with our EU partners on softer security issues. The most obvious such issue is cyber-crime and cyber-warfare, as the recent attack, from within Russia, on the HSE brought home to us dramatically.
Change the ‘triple lock’
Fourth, we should decide for ourselves to change the “triple lock” governing the deployment of more than a dozen members of our defence forces abroad. That self-imposed rule provides Russia, as well as other permanent members of the UN Security Council, with a veto over sovereign Irish decisions.
At the same time, we must surely explore the best way of committing to the defence of our European Union on which the survival of democracy in the 21st Century largely depends, especially if Trump and his domestic lookalikes continue to attach little importance to democracies around the world and even less to democracy in the US itself.
We should at least decide on Ireland’s full, as opposed to the currently qualified, application of the EU Treaty “solidarity clause”. This would mean Ireland committing to provide assistance, by all means at our disposal, including military means, to any other Member State that is the victim of armed aggression. We would undoubtedly expect them to come to our support.
Learn from Sweden and Finland
We should closely monitor developments in Sweden and Finland which now have clear and growing majorities for joining NATO. If those countries decide to join NATO, Ireland does not necessarily need to follow them. However, we can learn from the seriousness of their ongoing national debates on security issues and from their development of a closer relationship with NATO countries while maintaining their military neutrality.
In considering all these questions, we should understand that defence is not a dirty word. For a country to defend itself is not reprehensible. Indeed, every country has a right to defend its sovereignty. Nor is it unreasonable for a country to commit to defending its friends if they are attacked, especially if it would itself be dependent on those friends to come to its own defence. None of this has anything to do with having an aggressive foreign policy.
The key to understanding Ireland’s military stance today lies less in our history than in the good fortune of our geography. If Ireland were Lithuania, we would see the world through a totally different lens.
We have long been able to dismiss lightly any notion of military threats to our independence, even as Putin’s barbarity menaces our continent, only because our neighbours and friends don’t allow themselves that luxury.
Self-evidently, it will be solely for the Irish people to decide on these matters. Nobody is telling us what to do. We may decide to continue to lie relatively low. With our geography, we could conceivably take that risk. Or we could reach more challenging conclusions about our interests and responsibilities.
Bobby McDonagh is a former Irish Ambassador to the EU, UK and Italy. He is an executive coach and commentator on subjects around EU and Brexit.
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