LAST UPDATE | 18 Sep

YESTERDAY’S UNPRECEDENTED PAGER attack in Lebanon sent a brutal and unequivocal message to Hezbollah about Benjamin Netanyahu’s likely military intentions towards its northern neighbour.

Since the October 7th attacks last year, Hezbollah has launched thousands of missile attacks into northern Israel – displacing almost 100,000 Israeli citizens from their homes and settlements.

As Netanyahu’s genocidal operations in Gaza grind into an end-phase, his right-wing government appear to be shifting their attention to their northern front along the border with Lebanon.

On Monday, Netanyahu announced that he would be ‘broadening’ Israel’s ‘war aims’ to include the ‘return of northern residents’.

Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant also stated on Monday that the Israeli military – the Israeli Defence Forces, IDF – would likely and imminently be deployed against Hezbollah. In his statement, he outlined that Hezbollah had ‘tied itself’ to Hamas and ‘refuses to end the conflict’, concluding that: “Therefore the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities will be via military action”.

It is in this context that Tuesday’s pager attack took place. In terms of scale and penetration, the attack appears to have targeted over three thousand persons – many of whom, but not all – were Hezbollah members.

As more information emerges, it would appear that thousands of pagers, recently acquired by Hezbollah, were tampered with during either the manufacturing or distribution phase.

Earlier this year, following a number of high profile drone strikes against senior Hezbollah and Hamas figures, leadership figures were advised that mobile phone signals had been surveilled and exploited by the IDF to target individuals for assassination.

Hezbollah’s membership – in particular, those with command and control functions – were issued with pagers, in an effort to evade Israel’s ‘national technical means’ in harvesting signals intelligence. It was felt that the older technology would make it more difficult for the IDF and Mossad to target Hezbollah leadership figures.

The pagers, under the Taiwanese brand name ‘Gold Apollo’ would appear to have been manufactured under license in Budapest and subsequently delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon. At some point in this manufacturing or distribution process, a high explosive charge would appear to have been inserted in the pagers, turning them into thousands of de-facto improvised explosive devices or IEDs.

State assets

The scale of this intervention – a supply chain attack – suggests state assets were involved, with the most likely suspects being Israel and Mossad. On Tuesday, these explosive charges were detonated simultaneously – a mass IED attack – instantaneously killing and wounding thousands of Hezbollah members and Lebanese citizens.

Initial responses online and on some traditional media platforms suggested or hypothesised that the pagers had somehow been ‘hacked’ or manipulated in some way to force batteries to overheat and ‘explode’.

As more and more CCTV footage emerged online of the small explosions, it became clear that the detonations were consistent with a small, but powerful high explosive charge.

In my opinion, a small amount of high explosives – such as RDX or P4 – were likely inserted into the chargers. High explosive IEDs normally consist of three elements, a time power unit (TPU), bulk charge of high explosives and a detonator.

Mobile phones are commonly used by terrorists as TPUs – with the electrical charge contained within them used to detonate the bulk charge of high explosives – in IEDs worldwide. It is a very common bombmaking signature.

Ironically for Hezbollah, the pagers chosen by them as a ‘safety measure’ contained all of the principal features of a potential IED – a power source and TPU or triggering mechanism. All that was missing was the high explosives.

High explosives can often resemble putty or plasticene. It is highly stable and can be moulded, heated and formed to resemble an innocuous component part of a device like a charger – or manipulated to form a shaped charge. The amount of high explosives required to inflict the injuries and fatalities reported in Lebanon would be approximately 1 to 2 ounces (30-60g).

When detonated – even in such a small amount – the powerful blast and shock wave would be capable of causing serious soft tissue injuries and burns.

The pager itself would also disintegrate and act as shrapnel, causing injuries to the principal target and anyone in the immediate vicinity.

Online images of soft tissue injuries to the abdomen, buttocks and groin areas of Hezbollah members – along with the loss of fingers, facial and eye injuries – are consistent with such a high explosive charge contained within a pager. Either worn on the belt or waistband, carried in pocket or hand-held at time of detonation.

The attack will be regarded by Mossad and Netanyahu as an intelligence ‘spectacular’ – a dramatic breach of Hezbollah’s security and a profound psychological and propaganda victory against Sheikh Nasrallah and his Iranian sponsors.

Among the victims was the Iranian ambassador to Beirut, Majtaba Amani – more of whom later.

Indiscrimite

However, when you look past the ‘novelty’ and technological ‘ingenuity’ of this attack – it is simply an indiscriminate mass casualty event brought about by thousands of IEDs.

It is therefore an unlawful attack and has been condemned by the United Nations. In my view it is an extremely worrying development and flouts the international laws of armed conflict. It was in effect, a terrorist attack.

This is not the first time that communication devices have been used in terror attacks and IEDs. Palestinian resistance groups have used mobile phones in IEDs – as have groups as disparate as the Taliban and the Provisional IRA. What is unprecedented about the pager attack is its sheer scale and magnitude.

Hezbollah has promised revenge on Israel. This comes after an uneasy period of non-escalation following the targeted killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in Beirut in August and Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran in July.

Tuesday’s attack – involving both Hezbollah’s membership and a senior Iranian diplomat – will provoke retaliatory escalation from both Hezbollah and their sponsors in Iran. It is not yet clear what that will consist of. The United States and other regional stakeholders will be urging restraint on all sides in order to avoid a major escalation of the war.

However, events on the ground may overtake these behind the scenes diplomatic efforts. It is clear that Netanyahu wants to prolong and escalate this war. He and his cabinet have pre-deployed IDF brigades north towards the Lebanese border and may be preparing for a ground invasion in order to push Hezbollah north of the Litani river.

Such an invasion would be designed to remove Hezbollah’s presence from southern Lebanon and create a ‘buffer zone’ allowing displaced Israeli citizens to return to their homes in Galilee.

However, if Israel attempts a ground invasion – most likely on two axes of advance – west towards Ayt a Shab and Bint Jubayl and east towards Kafr Kila, Marjayoun and Khiam, they will face fierce resistance.

Hezbollah is not Hamas. It is a much larger force and is well equipped and well armed with an enormous stock-pile of ballistic missiles. In my view, if the IDF were to mount a ground invasion in Lebanon, they would experience casualties on an unprecedented scale.

I also believe that the pager attack clearly signals that Netanyahu would fully mobilise indiscriminate and unlawful force – as it has done in Gaza – with catastrophic consequences for innocent Lebanese civilians.

If such a ground incursion were to take place it would exponentially increase the risk of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran – and would probably necessitate the entry of the United States directly into the conflict. The US has deployed aircraft carrier groups to the Eastern Mediterranean in anticipation of such an unwelcome development.

Since the October 7th attacks, Hezbollah – like Hamas – have consistently engaged in war crimes – firing thousands of missiles at civilian targets in Israel.

Under Netanyahu’s toxic leadership, Israel also continues to commit war crimes in Gaza. Hamas for its part refuses to release the remaining Israeli hostages.

War crimes are being committed on all sides by toxic leaders who are leading the charge toward a full-scale regional conflict.

If the conflict escalates in the coming weeks, Irish troops deployed to UNIFIL will find themselves in the eye of the storm. One can only hope that sufficient international pressure can be brought to bear to prevent this escalation.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Éireann.