TWO WEEKS ON from the unmitigated disaster that was his performance in the 27 June presidential debate with Donald Trump in Atlanta, President Joe Biden says that he is staying in the race and will not give up on his bid for re-election.
It seems that he, and his inner circle, will not be deterred by the growing number of Democratic Party politicians and prominent backers who have urged him to step aside. That is the state of play at the time of writing, prior to the conclusion of the NATO Summit in Washington, DC and a crucial press conference for the President.
In traditional, new and social media there is a wide range of takes as to what will happen next. My own view is that the pressure will mount to such an extent that it will become untenable to keep going and that the 81-year-old Irish American will reluctantly throw in the towel – perhaps this weekend, prior to the Republican National Convention that commences Monday in Milwaukee and the eagerly anticipated announcement by Donald Trump of the identity of his running mate.
Yet it needs to be reiterated: this remains President Biden’s decision and his alone. Although the 99% of Democratic delegates pledged to the incumbent by virtue of his winning all of the primaries and caucuses could technically throw their support to another individual at the party’s convention in August in Chicago even if he refuses to bow out, that is extremely improbable.
The president has won the nomination, fair and square, and it would be extraordinary for a few thousand activists to overturn the will of those who voted for him, regardless of subsequent developments, if he is still in the ring.
So the American polity finds itself in, to put it euphemistically, an awkward position, as literally billions of citizens of the world – who are stakeholders in the outcome of presidential elections in the United States, whether they like it or not – look on in disbelief. In sum, Joe Biden really has to go, but actually he doesn’t.
Neither is an ideal choice. The truth is that this appalling vista could have been avoided. The finger pointing as to who in the Democratic Party bears responsibility for acquiescing to Team Biden’s demand that he have a largely unfettered path to again being anointed the standard bearer for the top job and thereby assuming a massive risk has no doubt begun in earnest and will continue. They are where they are, however.
There are two possible scenarios: Biden fights on or Biden exits. Following is my best guess as to how each would unfold.
In the first, the buzz over the Republican National Convention and Trump’s pick for the number two spot dominates headlines and attention. Albeit briefly, questions about Biden’s age and fitness are relegated. Depending to a huge extent on popular surrogates who are willing to go to bat for the President, Democrats push back on what they claim is a radical right-wing blueprint for the country’s future.
Soon, their own convention will loom and the dominant story will be how it is to be managed and choreographed to make Biden appear vibrant and vivacious. He delivers a decent speech, but his physical and mental decline are obvious; every single misstep or slip of the tongue is perceived through the prism engendered by the first debate. It doesn’t move the needle and Trump retains solid polling advantages in all of the battleground states, of which there are more than there were in 2020.
Biden is a little better in the second debate in September, yet cannot land a punishing blow on Trump, who is clearly more vigorous and with it. While he carries on until 5 November and is competitive in terms of the popular vote, Trump ultimately wins comfortably in the Electoral College. Republicans regain control of the US Senate and increase their majority in the US House of Representatives. Democrats fare poorly at the state and local levels. It is a terrible day for their party.
What if Biden, prodded by family and closest associates, is honest with himself, recognises that the foregoing sequence of events, if not guaranteed, is eminently plausible and thus ends his quest? The narrative of the campaign would change instantaneously.
All of a sudden, the focus would be on whether Democrats will quickly settle on the most expedient option, Vice President Kamala Harris, or if there would be a more drawn out battle involving the figure out of central casting for a President, California Gavin Newsom, or the most electable candidate, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer – and maybe others.
Might it be messy and ugly? Yes. Would it be wholly unprecedented in modern American politics? Yes. Could the uncertainty and potential chaos flowing from it benefit Donald Trump? Yes. But is it preferable for Democrats to have the global media focus daily on the contours of a fascinating contest featuring a new generation of political leaders or on Joe Biden’s age and capacity? The former is infinitely superior.
With tremendous respect for a lifetime of overcoming adversity and for a half a century of admirable public service, it’s time to go, Joe. It is only a shame that things got this far.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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