LAST UPDATE | 5 Jul 2024

GIVEN THE EVENTS of recent years, no one would be blamed for not trusting polls. Keir Starmer’s Labour certainly didn’t if their strategy heading into yesterday’s UK general election was anything to go by.

The polls were telling them that they were cruising to victory, but Labour were playing like Gareth Southgate’s England, cautiously defending an ill-deserved 1-0 lead. In the end, they had nothing to worry about. Britain woke up this morning to its first Labour government in 14 years.

Returning to power with a commanding majority of approximately 170 seats after the electoral calamity of the Corbyn years is nothing short of miraculous. 2019 was Labour’s worst electoral result since 1935. The party had at its head a man the public clearly thought was unelectable. Faced with a choice between Corbyn and the irresponsible clown who led the Conservatives, voters chose the clown.

It was a damning indictment of Corbyn’s leadership, which had left Labour overwhelmed by controversies, disconnected from voters, fighting with itself, and in tatters. The party Starmer took over had no right to even dream of winning an election again. Yet here we are.

No doubt Starmer has enjoyed some luck in his time as leader. From a purely electoral perspective, facing three of the worst Prime Ministers in British history has been a gift, even if the rest of us could have done without this trio accelerating the ruination of the country.

However, today’s results cannot just be put down to luck. There’s a steely determination to Starmer and no shortage of talent. He may not be inspiring, and he will not be remembered as one of politics’ great orators, but he clearly knows how to get the job done. His record of achievement will now be tested by the rigours of life in Number 10, Downing Street.

Change

Labour have promised change. Some of this will simply come by virtue of their ascent to the top of British politics. The personalities, tone and optics will change almost immediately. Less Jacob Rees-Mogg, more Angela Rayner. Less Jeremy Hunt, more Rachel Reeves. Less Suella Braverman, more David Lammy. That’s the easy part.

With a clear majority, delivering a new legislative agenda should also be fairly straightforward. This will likely include legislation to create Great British Energy, a state-owned investor that Labour hopes will drive forward a green, renewable revolution in the UK; new legal powers for the Office of Budget Responsibility, powers that will be designed to prevent any future Prime Minister “doing a Liz Truss”; a crime and policing bill to deliver on the promises made in Labour’s manifesto about anti-social behaviour and the use of children in drug-dealing; and planning reforms designed to facilitate more house building and much-needed improvements to the UK’s creaking transport infrastructure.

Starmer and his team will work hard to deliver as much as possible as quickly as possible. They know that having promised change, they will need to demonstrate this almost immediately. What will slow things down though is the lack of available money.

Labour and the Conservatives have been criticised during the campaign for not being honest about the financial difficulties facing the UK. The Conservatives don’t need to worry about that anymore. They are sitting in the corner, licking their wounds. Labour, however, will have to face up to this.

The major structural changes the UK needs will be expensive and will take time. Five years almost certainly isn’t enough to deliver this essential change, but the British public may not be willing to wait much longer than that. Persuading them to be patient and trust in the government’s approach will be a significant challenge for Starmer and his party, in spite of the overwhelming support they won at the election.

New Politics

Not all of the change to come will be driven by the Labour government. Some of it has been breaking through UK politics for years and Labour, just like all the other parties, will have to find a way to live with it.

British party politics is slowly reconfiguring itself on either side of a new political divide. This divide, forged in the politics of globalisation, pits liberal internationalists on one side, and illiberal nativists on the other.

This divide has been emerging for some time, and it was brought into sharp focus by the 2016 Brexit referendum. However, when it is passed back through the prism of the British political party system – a system that was forged in the politics of industrialisation – it doesn’t fit. Ultimately, something has to give. Either the clock is turned back, or the old party system breaks, and another one emerges that fits with this new politics. Yesterday’s result represents another step towards the latter.

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The Conservatives have been caught trying to straddle the new divide and have been pulled apart as a result. Thanks to Brexit, the rhetoric that surrounded it, and the political purges that were carried out in its name, liberal internationalists have concluded that the Conservatives are, in fact, illiberal nativists. Feeling betrayed by the party they used to support, they have abandoned it for the Liberal Democrats, now once again the third largest party in the UK Parliament.

Meanwhile, illiberal nativists believe that the Conservatives are neither illiberal nor nativist enough. They cast their votes in unprecedented numbers for Reform, granting serial election loser Nigel Farage a seat in Parliament, and replacing the Conservatives as the second party in a number of constituencies that Labour won.

Reform are building their camp on the illiberal nativist wing of British politics, and they have no intention of allowing the Conservatives to occupy that space as well. For now, they are outnumbered. However, Farage has watched Trump closely, and he knows that the best way to promote his illiberal and nativist philosophy is to execute a hostile takeover of an existing political brand. Don’t be surprised if the Conservative Reform Party stands at the next election.

On the other side of the divide, liberal internationalists have used new digital tools to run what appears to have been the most effective tactical voting campaign in British electoral history. While the impact of this will not be fully understood for some time, in the absence of having one party to represent them, these voters have found their own way to operate as something nearing a coherent bloc, one that has punished the Conservatives not only for their incompetence and lies but also their illiberalism and nativism.

The headlines today will rightly focus on Labour’s historic victory and the change that will come with this. But sitting behind this is a story about voters reorganising themselves along the new dividing line that runs through British politics. Ultimately, where the voters go the parties follow, and perhaps the biggest change we will see following this election, is the emergence of a new party system that accurately reflects the politics of our time.

Sydney Nash is a former civil servant and UK/EU negotiator, and a former advisor to the automotive sector on Brexit and international trade. He writes in a personal capacity and can be found @NashSGC.