LAST UPDATE | 9 Nov 2022

THERE WAS NO red wave. Notwithstanding an abundance of polling data and consequent punditry, from this writer and many others, to the effect that Republicans would do very well in the midterms, the electorate decided differently.

It is worth repeating the truism that the party of the incumbent President of the United States nearly without exception takes a serious hit in the next test of strength, two years on.

So-called red and blue waves result in the loss of dozens of seats in the US House of Representatives and often the relinquishing of control of the US Senate.

All of the ingredients were there in 2022. Inflation is rampant. The cost of living is soaring. There is widespread concern about immigration and the security of the southern border.

New skirmishes in the culture wars – over gender identity and parental input as to what their young children are taught in public schools – have been utilised shrewdly by conservatives. And President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is low.

A week and a half ago I wrote in this space that Democrats would lose the House by a potentially substantial margin and that the GOP would narrowly take the Senate. It now appears almost certain, however, that Democrats will still run the latter body and that Kevin McCarthy will succeed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, but with a razor-thin majority.

All things considered, the Democrats had a reasonably solid showing. Why?

Following are some of the factors that precipitated this surprise. But make no mistake. The outsized persona of Donald Trump was the biggest of all.

First, it has never been easier to cast a ballot in the US. Despite some external criticism, most Americans can vote weeks or even months before the established Election Day, and they can do so either in person or by mail. This advantages Democrats.

This time around, there are surely some women and men who voted early for the party’s standard bearers and whose preferences then wavered, given that sentiments seemed to be drifting toward Republicans in the closing days.

Second, the reversal of Roe v Wade was a seismic event in the history of the country of my birth. Its ripple effects in politics and more broadly will be felt for some time to come.

What they regard as the evisceration of a constitutional right and the wholly unwarranted interference with a woman’s bodily autonomy motivated an often silent or apathetic segment of the citizenry in places like Pennsylvania to vote for pro-choice candidates.

Third, even though some underplayed its political repercussions, the savage attack on 82 year old Paul Pelosi, Nancy’s husband, probably upset a cadre of Americans, in particular the elderly.

Even more troubling than the incident itself was the objectively appalling reaction of some on the right, who either made disgusting jokes about it or disseminated malicious, unfounded rumours about what had actually unfolded at the Pelosi residence in San Francisco.

Above all of these, and further elements that will form the basis of endless conjecture, is former President Trump. In many ways, these midterms became a referendum on him.

Because he is so beloved by millions of grassroots Republicans, aspirants genuflected to him during the primaries and embraced his claims that he was not defeated in 2020, as well as a range of unsavoury ideas and individuals.

Battlegrounds

Hence, in crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, GOP nominees entered the general election campaign after having pivoted far away from the mainstream.

In Pennsylvania, for instance, the gubernatorial hopeful, Doug Mastriano, was so extreme that he had no chance of prevailing. And the Trump-backed TV doctor with a dubious track record turned Senate candidate, Mehmet Oz, couldn’t beat John Fetterman, despite legitimate doubts about the sitting lieutenant governor’s capacity to fulfil the duties of the office. Fetterman unfortunately suffered a stroke last May from which he is still recovering.

Trump has morphed into a liability for the party he executed a hostile takeover of in 2016. Since his extraordinary triumph over Hillary Clinton, his interventions to boost the fortunes of Republicans facing off against Democrats have largely been a failure. They have lost numerous key contests. Trump’s political calculus has been consistently far off the mark.

The bottom line is that, while he may have an enviable amount of fervent and noisy adherents, enough of the Americans in the middle who determine the outcome of close-fought elections have had enough of Trump and all the baggage he has accumulated. And at least half of the people despise the man. As an anonymous senior Republican said this morning, “If it wasn’t clear before, it should be now. We have a Trump problem.”

The thing is, Republicans don’t have far to look for an heir apparent. The Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, was re-elected overwhelmingly on Tuesday and performed well with Latinos and in cities and towns with lots of Democrats. He is a committed conservative and is on the same page as Trump on the issues that matter most to right-wingers.

“Florida is where wokeism goes to die” is among his favourite lines. DeSantis might be lacking in charisma, but at 44, his youthful appearance and energy help compensate for the deficit.

There are two interrelated questions in this milieu. Will Donald Trump’s adherents recognise that the only plausible way forward is to thank the man they revere for all he has done for their cause and shift their preference to Ron DeSantis? Or will they walk together with the bombastic self-identified billionaire off the political cliff? It will be fascinating.

Watch the money.

Biden boost

On the opposite side of the aisle, these midterms offer the beleaguered President Biden a boost. Many in his party do not believe he can withstand the pressure of a 24/7, intense political joust in 2024 in which he will not have the benefit of a pandemic that limited everyone’s travel and dampened down expectations that a candidate for US president must be omnipresent.

That said, Democrats have had some important legislative wins and have just bucked electoral precedent under his watch. Biden will keep on keeping on. And unlike Trump, there is not a natural successor waiting in the wings. At least not yet.

An unedifying period of stalemate and investigations on Capitol Hill seems to lie inescapably ahead. But there will be plenty of intraparty intrigue. And the race for the White kicks off imminently in the land of the perpetual campaign.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.