THE INITIAL FEELING has started to wear off. Like virtually everyone else, I was shocked to hear that the former President of the United States and putative Republican Party presidential nominee, Donald Trump, had been shot at a rally in rural western Pennsylvania.
There are abundant unanswered questions about the incident itself at this moment.
What moved a 20-year-old, Thomas Matthew Crooks, to do this dastardly deed?
How could Crooks, with no apparent training or relevant expertise, access the roof of building so close to the stage that Trump was speaking on with a high-powered rifle?
Who is more to blame: the Secret Service or local law enforcement officials?
Conjecture is flying around and the conspiracy theories are being mooted.
Pulling back slightly, there are two broader matters that warrant interrogation.
How did America get to this point? And what does it mean for the presidential race?
First, it is important to recognise that there is an equally subtle and profound distinction between shock and surprise.
Yes, most of us were shocked by a serious attempt to assassinate a presidential candidate, even one as controversial and provocative as Trump.
But on reflection, given the poisoned political culture in the US and the well-documented, extreme polarisation there, can we say that this event was surprising? I am afraid not.
Sadly for me, this is yet another manifestation that the country of my birth, a country I love with all my heart, is in a very bad spot in 2024.
The society is angry and pessimistic. The economic model is broken. And there is a sick gun culture that is evidently immune to challenge.
It was once a truism that Irish people visiting the US invariably returned marvelling at a “can do” optimism that was omnipresent.
While there are residual elements of this admirable spirit, my own experience, as well as consistent polling data, suggests that a substantial majority of Americans are not happy with the direction of the nation generally or with their personal circumstances and are not at all positive about the future.
This flows from what can only be described as a ruthlessly capitalistic system and legal regime ushered in during the 1980s and largely left intact by politicians of all ideological persuasions since.
There is a colossal gulf separating haves and have nots, with the latter grouping expanding in leaps and bounds to encompass individuals and families who decades ago would have been part of the storied middle class.
What’s more, the prospects of achieving financial security have been diminished greatly by the extortionate cost of higher education.
The political failure to tackle this in a meaningful fashion, when it is a ready-made vote getter, is inexplicable at one level and a further damning indictment of the extraordinary influence of vested interests at another.
As for guns, one of the many things that strikes me when conversing with American tourists here is the extent to which they believe gun violence is an issue everywhere.
There is not much cognisance that a bizarre, widespread compulsion to possess weapons of war and a plethora of politicians willing to bend over backwards to forbid background checks and age restrictions on arms purchasers are permanent fixtures in the US alone.
The shooting of a presidential contender is not surprising in this sorry milieu.
What does it mean for the contest that will transpire from now until 5 November?
Before Trump was shot, the focus of rampant speculation was whether President Joe Biden would stand aside in the wake of his catastrophic debate performance on 27 June.
While that remains, in my view, a necessary measure if the Democrats want to beat the guy they fear and loathe, it seems less likely today than it was last week.
The Republican National Convention in the coming days, at which Trump will be feted as an unvanquishable, heroic leader and announce who his running mate is, will dominate the news.
Reportage into how Mr Crooks managed to get close enough to miss killing him by an inch will also feature. Calls for Biden to give up may continue, but it could be that the agitators lose momentum, especially as the 81-year-old has been decent, though not hugely convincing, in subsequent public appearances.
The game has undeniably changed.
Prior to his brush with death, Trump had the advantage.
According to the poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.com, he is ahead in all of the battleground states and, in some cases, he is in front by reasonably significant margins.
Crucially, he leads by 5.3% in Pennsylvania, where he was nearly murdered and where Joe Biden absolutely must win if he is to get a second term.
My suspicion is that, there and throughout the US, the fate that almost befell their man will galvanise and motivate Trump’s supporters.
It is hard to predict what additional impacts this sad occurrence will have on voters, but it certainly will not be forgotten by the American people any time soon. The photo of Trump, with fist clenched and the stars and stripes in the background, may prove the defining image of the campaign.
In short, the incumbent – or his replacement – already had a tall mountain to climb. That climb just got steeper.
Of course, politics is a topsy-turvy business and the state of play can change quickly and drastically.
Donald Trump is by no means a sure thing. Two senior Democratic members of the US House of Representatives, however, told Axios in the last 24 hours that they are concentrating on “keeping our seats safe” and have “all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency”.
With due deference again to all the usual caveats when it comes to making electoral forecasts, America and the rest of the world better buckle up. We are where we are.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with The Journal.
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