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Larry Donnelly Let's face it, if it weren't for Covid-19, Trump would be planning his inauguration

Larry Donnelly looks back over the 2020 race for the White House and says the pandemic utterly changed the direction of the election.

CAST YOUR MIND’S eye back to a world and an era long, long ago. Well, it’s actually not that far away. It just seems like it because it predates the wretched pandemic that has, through the toll it has exacted in terms of human suffering, economic calamity and detrimental alterations to our way of being, seized control of everyone’s life. I am talking about January of 2020.

With it being a presidential election year and with the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary looming, watchers of American politics had only two, inextricably intertwined questions in their heads. Who would become the Democratic nominee? And could that standard-bearer deny Donald Trump a second term in the White House?

Trump, the one-term president

Things were looking good for the most controversial President of the United States in living memory, regardless of his having earned the scorn of a sizable chunk of the population in the land of my birth and the overwhelming majority of people in Ireland.

One commentator summed up the reason for buoyancy within the Trump administration:

“While a large body of US and international publics, including this author, have long been critical of Trump, the fact remains that several key economic and political fundamentals are currently acting like ‘tailwinds’ for his re-election.This includes the generally robust economy which continues to hum along in what became in July the longest ever period of expansion in US history dating back over 120 months and counting.”

A group of decidedly unenthused investment experts and financial advisers brought together by Barron’s magazine reluctantly concurred that Trump’s getting four more years was likely.

Additionally, in its series of predictions for 2020, the avowedly left of centre Vox.com justified its forecast of a Trump triumph as follows:

“Trump is the incumbent, the economy is growing while unemployment stays very low, and despite some close calls, Trump hasn’t started new wars or expanded existing ones in ways that kill a lot of US service members. Combine that with Trump’s geographic advantage over the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College, and I think he has a better than even chance of winning.”

Those who weren’t so sure or were hedging their bets – yours truly among them – thought that a lot would depend on who the Democrats chose to take on the incumbent.

Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg & Warren

By January, it had begun to look like former vice-president Joe Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and the theretofore unknown Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg, were the top four hopefuls.

All the attention, as usual, was focused on the fast approaching, “first in the nation” votes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

They all had major weaknesses. Sanders was too far left for many people and yesterday’s man with a 1980s video espousing the merits of the Soviet Union to prove it. Warren had arguably obtained lucrative professorships on the basis of an extremely dubious claim of distant Native American heritage.

Buttigieg was a wholly undefined commodity and, societal advances notwithstanding, a gay man who might not garner buy-in from some of the key constituencies Democrats require in order to win.

And Joe Biden was an elderly man who had run for president twice before and, although he had an exemplary track record of public service, didn’t really have a compelling rationale beyond electability to excite Democrats.

Indeed, the proud Scranton, Pennsylvania native was crushed in both Iowa and New Hampshire – as an aside, their relevance in future is appropriately under a microscope – and appeared to be finished.

Then, South Carolina and African Americans had their say. They opted for Joe Biden, big league. He quite possibly took the nomination because James Clyburn, the powerhouse black congressman from the Palmetto State, backed him. Biden ran the table from there.

Performance in a pandemic

And Covid-19 struck. Trump panicked. A campaign predicated upon a booming economy and an associated “you might not like me, but you have to vote for me” mantra was all of a sudden jeopardised.

The administration sought to deny what was unfolding and played a petty brand of politics that cost lives. Crucially, polls showed that older people who were responsible for Trump’s shock victory were breaking away from him as a result.

His shrewder advisers no doubt urged the president to change course. He should admit that his people hadn’t managed the unprecedented crisis totally right and had erred in some ways, but assert that the Democrats were too liberal – in particular, too captive to the dangerous underbelly of the Black Lives Matter movement – to contemplate. Instead, the New Yorker doubled down, to the delight of elements of his base and probably no one else.

That Trumpian posture – push back harder and punch below the belt nastier – was on display in the first debate. His predecessors, like George HW Bush, have been properly described as being detached from such encounters. President Trump went the other way.

Even his fervent admirers must acknowledge that the personal attacks and fact-free accusations he hurled were a disgrace to his office. Severe damage was self-inflicted on the night. Trump’s performance unquestionably hurt him with the white women in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin who put him over the top in 2016.

Trump was immeasurably better in the final clash when he successfully pivoted to the theme that is still political gold dust: America First. Nonetheless, Joe Biden did just fine in those two duels. His team’s fears that he would have “a moment” did not come to pass. Consequently, he won them and the November 3rd result was a foregone conclusion.

In its wake, jubilation was widespread. Trump, whether he would recognise it or not, was done. The devil was in the details, however. Democrats did not retake the Senate.

They lost seats in the House of Representatives. They were absolutely destroyed at the local level. And the truth is that, were it not for coronavirus, Donald Trump would be preparing for another inauguration. I am convinced of it.

Joe Biden and the Democrats should prioritise and govern accordingly. Leftist Democrats refuse to accept the foregoing political realities and will fight to disabuse the quintessential institutionalist who beat Trump of his centrist instincts.

The other side will highlight President Biden’s every nod in their “socialist” and “anti-American” direction. The next presidency may lack the trashy drama the world has been glued to with a mixture of disbelief and horror for the last four years, but it will have its pressure points.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at NUI Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.

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    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Graham Cunningham
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:24 AM

    Just saw a bunch of crows walking home. They’re not gonna chance it !!.

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    Mute Paul Doyle
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:26 AM

    N I’ve to cycle into work… dreading it

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    Mute Paul Furey
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:42 AM

    Nothing taking off from Dublin Airport according to Flight Radar 24. Normally landing in this weather is a problem, it’s really bad if they can’t take off!

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    Mute Tony Canning
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:51 AM

    @Paul Doyle: get a taxi, much better chances of survival.

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    Mute Paul Somers
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:24 AM

    @Paul Doyle: Hope you had the stabilizers on and wind on your back. Wicked wind.

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    Mute Neal, not Neil.
    Favourite Neal, not Neil.
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:45 AM

    If you’re seriously planning on cycling in this, you’re a wreckless twit.

    56
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    Mute Terry Tibbs
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 10:26 AM

    @Neal, not Neil.:

    lol… has the head of a twit.. pointy shoes and super slim pants,

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    Mute Larissa Caroline Nikolaus
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 11:06 AM

    @Paul Doyle: I took the bus this morning, instead of cycling, even though it meant journey time of more than twice what I’d have by cycling

    18
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    Mute Cheryl Mellett
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:07 AM

    Don’t make unnecessary journeys ;-)

    360
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    Mute Declan McDermott
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:26 AM

    Don’t take risks on treacherous roads

    214
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    Mute Soccer T's
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:26 AM

    Don’t eat orange snow

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    Mute Seán Domhnall O'Sullivan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:03 AM

    Don’t go chasing waterfalls, please stick to the rivers and the lakes that you’re used to x.

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    Mute Alan Farrell
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:34 AM

    Don’t go breaking my heart.

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    Mute Pete Dennehy
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:39 AM

    Surely you can do better than that?

    25
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    Mute Alan Farrell
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:29 AM

    I couldn’t if I tried.

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    Mute Caroline McQ
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:34 AM

    Good come back Alan

    114
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    Mute Paraic McDonagh
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:07 AM

    Baby come back.

    31
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    Mute Avina Laaf
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:08 AM

    Don’t go down to New Orleans…

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    Mute Paul Somers
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:26 AM

    @Avina Laaf: waiting for the neighbours house to blow away

    12
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    Mute Mary Lyons
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:51 AM

    @Pete Dennehy: Don’t Calle me Shirley!

    19
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    Mute Paraic McDonagh
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:27 AM

    My name is not Susan, so watch what you say…

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    Mute Jon
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 10:25 AM

    Don’t put anything in your vagina that you wouldn’t put in your mouth.

    18
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    Mute Larissa Caroline Nikolaus
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 11:10 AM

    @Mary Lyons: Surely you can’t be seriuos

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    Mute Crocodylus Pontifex
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:09 AM

    One of our chickens just laid the same egg 3 times

    321
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    Mute Donal Proctor
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 2:45 AM

    Stay in bed, dont go to work!

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    Mute Mrs M
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:47 AM

    Yep don’t make unnecessary journeys !

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    Mute colm connolly
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 2:08 AM

    Just been woken up with the high winds in North tipperary and rain belting the house facing west out the window , it’s quite rough , it’s not died down since it woke me and what what I can see my yard is a mess and the neighbours chimes are driving me nuts

    252
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    Mute Ger
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 4:32 AM

    My house got a good old blast of wind and rain around 3am. Takes a lot to wake me once im sleeping but this was loud. Freaked my cat out too

    174
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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:12 AM

    Wheelie bins tipped over everywhere and rubbish all over the place. Going to be a big cleanup needed.

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    Mute Firefeind
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:33 AM

    Same here, rubbish everywhere and back garden flooded, the outside table was lifted, glass everywhere but the dog has no intention of going out there anyway, jeez today has started well

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    Mute David Byrne
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 1:55 AM

    The m50 car park should be fun tomorrow morning.

    134
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    Mute Patrick J. O'Rourke
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 4:58 AM

    The wind is rocking the house up here on the north west. I haven’t heard gusts like that for a good while. Just expecting to lose power at a time now.

    133
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    Mute Fozz
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:51 AM

    “they’ve cut the power”. “what do you mean THEY’VE cut the power?”!

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    Mute Kris Kendellen
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:57 AM

    “how could they cut the power man, they’re animals” – favourite movie.

    25
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    Mute Patrick J. O'Rourke
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:02 PM

    Where did that “they’ve cut the power” come from? Whoever said it must have been referring to the gusts I suppose. Anyway were lucky for a change as we have power still. It normally only takes someone farting in the wrong direction to knock our poles down. However the carnage outside is something I will leave until later as I can’t face it yet. A cat turned up staring on the window covered in paint.

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    Mute Mark Cronin
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:32 AM

    Time to get up. It’s Doris Day.

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    Mute Joe Keogh
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:37 AM

    @Mark Cronin:She’s just dropped into the Windy City.

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    Mute Rosa Parks
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:18 AM

    Don’t go swimming in the sea.

    115
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    Mute Carol Mc Cabe
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:31 AM

    Power out in Cavan!! Bins flying around yard! Extremely gusty , feel this is a bad one?! Alarm going off in car also
    Oho husband snoring and rest of house awake!!!!

    110
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    Mute FifiJamming
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:55 AM

    Neighbours recycling all over my garden. His bin is somewhere else..

    38
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    Mute Benny Gil
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:23 AM

    Very severe here in Naas, our thrown up celtic tiger house is groaning and making unusual clicking noises, expecting slates gone. 9 year old Sky light starred leaking too! Light touch self regulation, Bertie the builders friend. ya chancer! .

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    Mute Kal Ipers
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:35 AM

    Just to be accurate Bertie wasn’t in power when the regulations changed I actual think it was a decade before too.

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    Mute Virtual Architect
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 10:06 AM

    Don’t expect the royal Institute of architects to give you any good guidance of what to do. They’re even more protected now by new “consumer protection” legislation than they were before Priory Hall debacle kicked off. Architectural technicians who know the building regulations way better than the architects can’t even sign off. Wonderful country we’re living in : D

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    Mute Jun Stone
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:51 AM

    Awake since 3.30 and I’m working late this eve…aghhhhh, I’m tired already.

    79
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    Mute Cormac Kerrigan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:35 AM

    Tá an gaoithe ag seideadh í gcontae Lú

    76
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    Mute Ace
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:29 AM

    @Cormac Kerrigan: Bloody foreigner.

    73
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    Mute Tom Cummins
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:12 AM

    Christ thats windy! Power out in Celbridge!!!

    74
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    Mute Sinead
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:06 AM

    Lost my back fence…the gate is still standing don’t see the use in it now though

    73
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    Mute C Mc Gyver
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 4:54 AM

    Loads of trees and fallen power lines down! Take care early this morning!!!!

    56
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    Mute margaret o connor
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:31 AM

    Storm Doris is definitely here at Tullamore hospital. Patients wide awake…its getting worse…

    55
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    Mute Jonathan Cully
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:43 AM

    On ship in carlingford. Rockin and a rollin.

    53
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    Mute gerard carey
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:21 AM

    Just saw Dorothy and Toto flying past the window. Their not in Kansas now.

    51
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    Mute Ivor O'Sullivan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:15 AM

    From about 5am Horrendous wind & rain in Meath, (near Drogheda)

    50
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    Mute Cathal
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:24 AM

    It’ll be windy and rainy, no more. They just have to dramatise it a bit with names and colours

    49
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    Mute Gavin Merrigan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:36 AM

    Won’t be many down the 40ft this morning

    49
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    Mute Penelope
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:16 AM

    Being battered here in Kildare at the moment, hate high winds, the scare the life out of me..

    46
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    Mute Shane Cormican
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:20 AM

    I’ll tell the police

    12
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    Mute Stephen Cahill
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 4:00 AM

    The wind is howling here in Waterford city but i will just about get through it I think.

    41
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    Mute Shane Walsh
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:22 AM

    Wicklow Town is being battered.

    34
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    Mute Eye_c_u
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:55 AM

    I bet it’s pretty watching the waves crash in

    15
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    Mute Ace
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:29 AM

    Normally commute from Kildare to Dublin on the motorbike.

    You know its a day to take the car you cant walk to the shed without being thrown around.

    30
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    Mute BogumilM
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:43 PM

    @Ace: Like me. Kildare – Dublin. I took my motorcycle today, wasn’t bad.

    1
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    Mute Charles Coughlan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:19 AM

    Windy but not stormy so far down south, the worst of this is forecast for the north and west coast and for the UK.

    25
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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:17 AM
    24
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    Mute Louise Ní Riain
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:33 AM

    Tis wild out there

    23
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    Mute Leitrim303
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 10:29 AM

    fair play to the ESB Crew for working in this

    17
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    Mute Geffrey Kane
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:54 AM

    Really hate living on a boat in weather like this. Exhausted.

    16
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    Mute aurilton
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 6:19 AM

    Doris is making an entrance alright …..in the dark here …… I wonder ….. is she related to
    ‘Charlie’?!

    15
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    Mute Toon Army
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:45 AM

    Hold on to your hat

    13
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    Mute Stewart O Neill
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 5:24 AM

    With the high winds lets hope any snow or rain will just blow away

    13
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    Mute Paraic McDonagh
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:26 AM

    I’m heading to Salthill for a swim.

    12
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    Mute Ace
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:43 AM

    @Paraic McDonagh: Bagsy your liver.

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    Mute Martin Sinnott
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:05 AM

    Go and fly a kite

    12
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    Mute Jimmy Hewitt
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:27 AM

    My house just ended up in oz. Me and Toto are OK but I can’t find my red shoes. Is that road yellow ?

    11
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    Mute seanie
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:03 AM

    Woken up by that rain last night never heard or seen anything like it before.

    9
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    Mute midlandsbased
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 8:27 AM

    Altogether now… Que sera sera!

    8
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    Mute Stephen Duffy
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:11 AM

    Hopefully the east coast will escape the worst of it.

    8
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    Mute Ian Scott
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:49 AM

    any truck mechanics in ireland fancy coming to uk on contract and taking home 1200 per week in the rail..

    8
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    Mute Ace
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 7:53 AM

    @Ian Scott: Who would want to work for a company that is so tight they wont even advertise the job properly.

    47
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    Mute Ian Scott
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:17 AM

    I’m working for them.. I’m not the company tit .. ur obviously not u employed and not bothered.. there’s plenty who are so wind ur neck in

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    Mute Ace
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 9:39 AM

    @Ian Scott: You ok hun ? Did I hurt your feelings. Bless.

    14
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    Mute Aural Abuse
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 12:22 PM

    My poor little girls Wendy house is in a few hundred pieces all over the back garden. Doris you hateful monster

    4
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    Mute Derek Lyster
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 11:00 AM

    Neighbours trampoline broke my fence, hit the side of my house and damaged the roof, soffit, fascia and gutter

    1
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    Mute Peter Buchanan
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    Feb 24th 2017, 5:26 AM

    time to start laying power lines underground ?

    1
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    Mute tony sheehan
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    Feb 23rd 2017, 4:25 PM

    Hello

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