Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
THE FOURTH GATHERING, held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, of a dwindling band of GOP aspirants to be the next President of the United States is in the history books. Similar to the previous three, it was a broadly ignored, “big do nothing burger” – and that is being charitable. It will not move the needle an iota and was again boycotted by the only man who could dramatically expand the audience and level of interest, Donald Trump.
The clash was noteworthy in one sense, however. That is the extent to which the erstwhile leading alternative to Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and the increasingly absurd businessman, Vivek Ramaswamy, ganged up on the ex-South Carolina Governor and US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, who has been nicknamed “bird brain” by the disgraceful president she served in the latter posting.
They went after her for a reason. Many Republicans, who have reservations about nominating Trump a third time to sit atop their party’s slate of candidates in November of 2024, have now united around Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, which aggregates opinion polls to account for outliers, she is a mere shade behind DeSantis in Iowa, where he has profited from high profile endorsements and support from evangelical Christians there who never warmed to Trump. And she has surged past both DeSantis and the “localish” former New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, to occupy second place comfortably in New Hampshire.
Additionally, much was appropriately made of surveys showing Trump in front of President Joe Biden in the key battleground states. Haley has a greater advantage, though. The national averages show her five percentage points ahead of President Biden, with Trump and DeSantis two and one percent ahead, respectively.
This vital indicator undeniably factored into the recent decision of the famous, or infamous, billionaire Koch brothers, hugely influential in Republican circles, to endow Haley with their massive financial and organisational heft. There is little doubt either that she will benefit substantially or that this is a damaging, perhaps lethal, wallop to DeSantis’ ambitions.
But, and it is an enormous BUT, RealClearPolitics.com still has Haley down approximately 33 percentage points to Trump in both Iowa and New Hampshire. She trails the undisputed favourite by a whopping 50 percentage points nationally.
There is, of course, the conundrum that will continue to perplex political scientists and strategists for generations to come: Why does Donald Trump inspire uniquely unshakeable loyalty in his adopted party’s faithful? The concomitant quandary at present for Haley is whether the mountain is too steep to climb with just a month to go before the primary process kicks off in earnest?
As for the first, there is a cult of personality surrounding the defendant in four criminal prosecutions. For tens of millions of Americans who disdain politics and politicians as usual, who care little what happens beyond the borders of the US and who want to turn the clock back in a country they no longer identify with as readily, Trump was, and remains, heaven sent.
Speaking of the divine, for the vast swathe of people on the ideological right who describe themselves above all as proud social conservatives, Donald Trump is the man who accomplished the ultimate objective they have pursued and prayed for relentlessly since 1973: the reversal of Roe v Wade.
“God works in mysterious ways” is their mantra when asked how they reconcile their unwavering devotion to a patently immoral individual with their genuine religious beliefs.
From a raw political perspective, operatives linked to Trump cite the truth that he alone in 2016 grasped that American conservatism had transformed profoundly since it was defined by Ronald Reagan’s small government philosophy, sunny disposition and conviction that the US had a big role to play in global affairs. Whereas the likes of Mitt Romney and John McCain were dismal failures, Trump assembled an ostensibly incongruous winning coalition of working class whites, Latinos and a surprising number of Black men, while retaining a significant cadre of traditional Republican voters.
Conversely, Trump has driven away many women and men his party used to count on. Scores of affluent, well-educated, suburban dwelling Americans cannot stomach his ugly persona and poisonous rhetoric.
Young women especially find decades of offensive behaviour he typically bragged about appalling and are enraged that he has dealt a major blow to their bodily autonomy and reproductive rights, which legions of activists had fought long and hard to guarantee.
Nikki Haley is subtly making the case that she can draw lots of these voters – who may tell the tale in crucial states with shifting demographics, such as Georgia and Arizona – to the GOP, up and down the ticket and across the US. Doing so would more than counterbalance a loss of enthusiasm and turnout deficit among Trump die-hards, who are put off by her apparent unease with what she might privately term her party’s retrograde pivot, her internationalist bent and to a lesser degree, sadly, her ethnicity.
To address the second question posed, then, it is improbable, if not impossible, that Haley can persuade the amount of converts required at this late phase – not on the merits of her messaging, at any rate. What she, and others who can’t abide Donald Trump, hope is that he finally is so ensnared in his legal troubles that it becomes untenable for him to proceed in the eyes of enough of those who select the standard bearer in the primaries.
Yet no matter if things get considerably worse for him in the courts, it seems at this juncture that it will take an absolutely monumental sequence of events for his large, committed following to abandon ship. The prospect of a youthful, vibrant, articulate, unashamedly conservative woman whose skin complexion reflects the changing racial composition of the citizenry wiping the floor with a clearly outmatched President Biden on a debate stage won’t deter them.
Yes, Donald Trump is currently favoured to vanquish the incumbent. But were she to manage an almost unfathomable upset and emerge as the nominee, I am convinced that Nikki Haley would be pretty close to a dead cert to be the 47th POTUS.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Never have a pair of hands aged so much in such a short space of time…
@Laura Crowe: lush helping hands hand cream best ever… and no I don’t work for them! Just good quality
@kevinhunt101: what else is inside that manbag of yours?
@Laura Crowe: Washing hands an sanitising are obvious preventatives but the virus is airborne right?
Yep, but now I also use the drying tissue to open the toilet door, in a bid to avoid catching the leftovers of the dirty germ-carriers who didn’t…
@LeoVaradsCar: I’ve been doing that for years! LOL!
@LeoVaradsCar: I do try time it until someone else is finished and I just follow them and let them open the door for me
@LeoVaradsCar: excellent! If everyone on island of Ireland does that. and if this liberal/ economically right wing government in Dublin along with the other SF/DUP lead Irish government in Belfast control the people that are arriving on to the Island of ireland strictly ! We will control dangerous mysterious virus properly ! otherwise people will die unnecessary because hard decisions where not made!
@LeoVaradsCar: I have always done that, and if there is a gap between the cubicle door and the floor I use my foot under the door to open it. When I wash my hands I always use the back of my forearms to push the tap down and I always have tissue’s in my bag to dry my hands with, if I have to use a public toilet.
I was a hospitality manager for 20 years and have always washed my hands properly and up to two inches past my wrist. I always wash my hands before I cook and I always put hot water and Fairy in the kitchen sink, if I’ll be handling raw meat, so that I don’t have to touch the kitchen taps.
It never ceases to amaze me, the amount of people who don’t wash their hands particularly in public toilets, or people who just run their fingers under the tap. People shouldn’t have had to wait for Covid-19 to start washing their hands.
I am shocked to see there is a percentage of people who do not wash their hands
@George Demo: those people probably picked that option to get a reaction
@Brian Hunt: or maybe they have no hands…
@George Demo: it’s a stupid poll
@George Demo: I can’t believe that amount of people who are not following the advice regarding coughing. Yesterday and today I have had people walk by me and without so much as putting their hands over the mouths. Next person who does it, will be sorry. I have asthma and I cannot afford to get this virus.
@Ann Reddin: **have had people walking by me coughing…..
I can never get over those people who don’t wash their hands after going to the toilet.
@Gary Mortimer: was in the pub and sunday and saw 2 men leave without washing their hands. My 5 year old called them out on it and called them stinky
I sing a verse of ” Everybody is Going Kong Flu Fighting” it works a treat
@Galwaygogo: it’s ‘Stand Up and Fight’ for me, 25 seconds and a pep in my step
I have always practiced personal hygiene but I would rather urinate outside (figuratively speaking) than use a public toilet after people that don’t bother washing at all.
It’s disgusting seeing these people walking out, sitting at tables/bar and spreading their germs.
No, because I have always been just short of compulsive about hand washing, not because I am afraid to get my hands dirty, but because I do and have always realised that it’s an obvious chain of transmission, that needs to be broken by hand washing.
It also comes as no surprise to me, that many people either don’t wash their hands properly or don’t wash them full stop…
I got big into hand washing after we got training in work during the SARS epidemic … then over the years I noticed people reverted back to bad habits.
The amount of soap refills needed in work this month, so far, is an eye opener!
Not washing hands PROPERLY could be a death sentence for ill, elderly, disabled person. Just DO IT! But properly and if you are in ‘high risk zone’ i.e. elderly, ill, disabled – self isolate . I’ve set up a STRICT isolation regime.
I would advise everybody to watch last night’s tonight show via the Virgin media tv website. Professor John Crown puts everything in perspective.
@The Risen: Have only watched a clip on twitter in which he basically said Ireland needs to go into an Italian style lockdown now while we still have a managable number of cases. If he means Ireland doing this on its own and not as part of a combined effort with basically every country in the world, then it’s not going to work. It would simply be kicking the can down the road and risking an epidemic later in the year. And the absolute worst case scenario is a Covid-19 epidemic that coincides with flu season. Say we went into lockdown and the UK didn’t. The UK would have their peak in the summer. We would probably have isolated but manageable cases cropping up. But we couldn’t come out of lockdown until the virus was eradicated in the UK. If the UK still had cases at the end of the summer they could depend on herd immunity to keep it manageable. We couldn’t. We’d have no immunity. So how long would we have to stay in lockdown ? There’s no good time for an epidemic as nasty as this, but the least bad time is spring or very early summer.
@The Risen: On the Pat Kenny show on 3rd March, Mary Lou said the following;
‘What we are doing is following the advice from the Chief Medical Officer’ she explained. ‘We are erring on the side of caution. We are being careful, but we are keeping calm.’
McDonald added that following the advice of health experts is key when deciding whether to host the St Patrick’s Day festival this year.
Shinners know bloody everything, so that’s good enough for me.
@Tommy Roche: We won’t Tommy, because the people pulling the strings behind FFG won’t let us.
@The Risen: He’s a thorn in the ass of the medical establishment isn’t he. Not a yes man and never afraid to think outside the box or express contrary and informed opinions. A brilliant physician with global experience during his career.
@The Risen: He is only saying what anyone who understands basic statistics regard as bleedin’ obvious.
@Tommy Roche: Indeed, there is a get it over with element to this as well, and this is the best time to get it. Besides, it’s a cold virus, I’m not sure how successful full lockdowns would be, as in any more effectively that social distancing in the long run. We are going to get it, its a case of mitigating as much as possible and trying to keep numbers down, but the rate of spread is exponential (doubles every x days), so small numbers will get very large (1000 to 1m) in ten cycles, or about 30 days.
Closing things down and sensible people with mitigate that, but the numbers are serious.
I sing a lively version of “ Come out ye black & Tans “…instead of 20 seconds I double up ( for more safety?) & do 2 verses
Have people wash them properly and are they disinfecting common surfaces, like doorknobs, taps toilet flushes
As a person who works outdoors all year in horticulture I’ve always washed hands thoroughly or else dirt would be ingrained in skin.
Dexys Midnight Runners “Come on Eileen” is renamed Covid-19 , Red Fm had it this morning and I can’t stop singing :) Covid-19 , oh you keep your hands clean , try not to sneeze , on aaaannyyyybody … oh Covid-19 and so on and so on .. try singing it , you won’t be able to get it out of your head , your welcome !
This is a virus that can only spread with human contact – stop human contact, stop spread virus – instead mass gathering such as Cheltenham racing allowed to take place in UK where virus is about to explode – it seems they want it to spread by allowing it to spread and not taking adequate action that can slow it down, stop it even if measures strict enough.
No I’ve started wiping my arse with my sleeve.
I work in a hospital, I’ve always practiced what was taught to us regarding handwashing. However I constantly see people come out of public toilets and just wet their fingertips then dry them! These people will now have to up their game.
I was hopeless at washing my hands before…..not anymore!!
Yes washed my hands of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael both the Political arm of the Catholic
Church. Leo and Mohole a pair of Bleepers
@Roger Dawson: FF & FG washed just Mooney…
@Margarita Si Marcel: with dirty hands!!!!
@Roger Dawson: yeah, the political arm of the Catholic Church that introduced abortion and same sex marriage.
Did you ever before washed hands? – Looking in shops – answer is no :))
Some drama for a flu!
@Daithi De Roiste: does it matter what it is called if it has the capacity to completely overwhelm our health services and bankrupt the country? Like it has done in Italy. Is that not a good enough reason to try and prevent it spreading?
@Daithi De Roiste:
Troll alert!
@Daithi De Roiste: A different type of flu though, a variant of the corona virus indeed but one we don’t know when it will slow down, one that is not just seasonal, one that attacks the respiratory system, one that has no vaccine.
Ever since a staunch brexiteer in work said that he sings God save the queen washing his hands, I sing come out you black and tans washing mine.
Nope.
I keep following the guidelines my mother taught me when I was three….
In fact, I must say I always found amusing, since I came to Ireland over 10 yrs ago, to find ‘instructions’ on how wash hands in every public bathroom…. seriosuly, what is that?
@Proudly Italian: It’s great the YOU were taught to do it properly but what good is that when nobody else in your country was? Italy has 167.9 cases / million people while China has only 56! And thanks for spreading it to the whole of Europe and beyond! pft
@Marie Broomfield: Reset your brain and try again please. You can do it.
I not put mine on a short cycle. 30 mins at 60 degrees with a splash of Comfort to give them a spring meadow freshness
Teachers at my kids school here in the US have told the kids to sing the alphabet song while washing their hands
Lather them up better than i used to, having learned that the actual lather breaks down the virus, now i let the water get hot before i start rinsing but i don’t actually wash every individual finger if i havn’t been out and about with other people. Don’t eat any shop bought produce until i get home as wash the hands , fully. eg crisps. we’ll all become germophobes!
I even washed my hands after tapping that voting button.
Just made me think more about what songs last duration of 20 seconds to wash my hands with
I dont have any hands. Feeling stumped as to how best to protect myself.
How do we sanitise the wind?
I’ve always washed my hands but not as if I’m scrubbing in for surgery which is what I’ve been doing since Covid-19 became an issue. My knuckles are actually red and sore now from all the washing.
The lack of proper facilities is a huge issue when out and about, taps with a bare trickle of cold water, empty soap dispensers, manky looking towels to dry your hands. It would also be an idea to have all public toilets have a swing door so you could open it without having to touch the handle as you leave.
Yeah, I wash with mustard now.
Prob not washing hands more than n9rmalor differently but trying tousehand sanitiser before leaving and entering and in car too.
have your say