RUSSIA BEGAN ITS military intervention in Ukraine in 2014 as Russian-speaking separatists seized territory in Luhansk and Donetsk. In the last eight years, over 14,000 people have been killed in the ‘low-intensity conflict’ that has followed.
In the interim, the Russian-backed separatists have consolidated their control in these break-away provinces, including the provincial capitals of Luhansk and Donetsk. In the last 24 hours, President Vladimir Putin has formally recognised these two provinces as independent, sovereign states, the People’s Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk respectively.
Crucially, Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitri Peskov has stated that Russia has recognised these new republics ‘in the borders that existed when they proclaimed their independence in 2014’.
At present, Russian-backed forces occupy approximately half of the disputed territories of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Under the Minsk Agreement of 2015, the separatists only control territory up to a point. The Ukrainian military hold the remainder, with positions throughout both provinces along a defensive front termed the ‘Ukrainian Line of Control’ which is approximately 200km in length.
Russia’s recognition of the breakaway republics’ ‘2014 borders’ represents a declaration of intent to re-take this territory from Ukraine. Either by force, or by diplomacy.
Initially, President Putin has signed a ‘Friendship Treaties’ with both new republics. He has also ordered Russian forces to enter these areas on ‘Peacekeeping Operations’. This is the first phase of a de-facto invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected the legitimacy of the new self-declared states. Under international law, Ukraine will view Russia’s movement of troops into these contested regions as a de jure and de facto invasion – an illegal act of war.
President Putin’s description of this first phase of incursion as a ‘Peacekeeping Operation’ – at the invitation of Luhansk and Donetsk is consistent with Russian hybrid operations in the region to date.
Declaring their deployment into Ukraine as a peacekeeping mission is part of a propaganda and deception strategy – termed ‘Maskirovka’ by the Russian military. Peacekeeping operations – even during the Cold War era – are normally negotiated by all parties to a conflict and are usually mandated by the UN Security Council.
Russia’s move into the ‘Insurgent Line of Control’ – deploying military assets into Ukraine and within range of Ukrainian military positions is a pre-emptive first step toward war between the two states.
The next phase of Russia’s intervention will be decided by diplomacy or a ground offensive to push Ukrainian forces out of Luhansk and Donetsk, taking strategic towns, key routes and the port of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. Given the concentration of Russian forces along the border – and now across the border in Luhansk and Donetsk proper, such a ground offensive would be short, brutal and decisive.
The Russian tank and mechanized units that they have deployed to the area are fast moving and would effectively roll over Ukrainian positions in a matter of days. There is no doubt that in such a scenario, the Ukrainian military would resist and fight to hold ground.
However, if fighting breaks out, the Russians would enjoy air superiority – almost total control of the airspace in the area – and their Battalion Tactical Groups would move west to a de-facto Russian line of control, east of Kharkiv to the north, and Dnipro in the south.
Putin will seek to exploit the current fast moving situation as best he can, leveraging as much ‘diplomatic’ pressure on the US, EU and NATO in order to consolidate existing territorial gains in Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea achieved by annexation.
An intense – and potentially embarrassing – diplomatic ‘appeasement’ of Putin at this point, might buy Ukraine and the Baltic States some time and avoid the immediate prospect of war.
However, Russia has the initiative in this crisis and has the advantage of geographical proximity to maintain its forward deployment and force projection into Ukraine – indefinitely.
Unlike the US and NATO in Iraq or Afghanistan, Russia’s ‘peacekeeping operation’ in Luhansk and Donetsk is relatively easy and cheap to maintain. Like their lightning invasion and annexation of Georgia – for now – their intervention in Ukraine looks like an ‘easy win’.
However, if Russian troops move forward and advance to contact in offensive operations against the Ukraine military along the Ukrainian line of control in the coming days and weeks, it will represent an overt, explicit act of war.
As stated, in such a scenario, it is likely that Russia would easily seize and occupy what remains of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russian military planners will already have selected key defensive positions for permanent occupation in order to establish a defence-in-depth of Russia’s land border from any eastern expansion by the NATO alliance – within Ukraine itself.
Such a strategy resembles in many respects what Russia ‘achieved’ in Georgia in 2008. However, an overt act of war in Europe is a far cry from the covert, ‘Grey Zone’ operations that have worked well for the Russians thus far.
War might bring unanticipated and unwelcome consequences for all concerned from Moscow to Berlin, Paris, London and Washington.
President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have enjoyed considerable success in leveraging their use of force internationally in recent years. After NATO’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Russia and China are the main power brokers in Central Asia.
After costly – and disastrous – US and allied military interventions in Iraq and Syria, Russia and Iran have emerged as the main power brokers in that part of the Middle East that stretches from Teheran, through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut.
Events in Ukraine are emblematic of the current turbulence in the global ‘world order’. They are a test of the resolve and partnership of the US and Europe as expressed through such alliances as NATO and the EU project.
The resilience and coherence of both have been weakened by the Trump administration and Brexit respectively. Russia regards the EU as weak. Putin and Lavrov regard NATO as a threat – an aggressive entity that wields military force in a clumsy and extremely costly manner.
Despite the threat of sanctions, events on the ground in Ukraine could well spiral out of control. If Russia attacks Ukrainian troops on the ground in the coming days and weeks – or if vice versa – Ukraine takes the initiative, the conflict could escalate very quickly and in unexpected ways, with tragic consequences for all of Europe and Russia.
Apart from the threat of sanctions, there is a requirement for leadership – on all sides to this conflict. It would be a tragedy of epic proportions if the fragile ego and brittle ambitions of angry men were to plunge Europe into the largest conventional conflict since World War Two.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in TU Dublin. You can follow him on Twitter.
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