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Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Alamy

Opinion Foreign Policy must be at the centre of the General Election campaign

Dr Barry Colfer says we can’t be complacent about the dangers of a changing world, and this concern should be front and centre as an election issue.

LAST UPDATE | 20 Nov 2024

FOREIGN POLICY IS the sum of the strategies and tactics that governments use to guide relations with each other. In Ireland, there has traditionally been a high degree of consensus surrounding matters of foreign policy, which has seen them typically feature only on the margins during election campaigns.

In the run-up to the forthcoming General Election, given the turbulent geopolitical context in which Ireland finds itself, foreign policy must be a much more central part of public discourse than has been the case in the past. The re-election of Donald Trump, and the implications this will have for the world, only increases the urgency of this need.

For decades, much of Ireland’s foreign policy has focused on matters including trade relations, the country’s involvement in multilateral organisations, and overseas development. Understandably, relations with the UK also absorbed much diplomatic and political energy for most of the 20th Century and made up a central part of the State’s foreign policy.

president-elect-donald-trump-attends-ufc-309-at-madison-square-garden-saturday-nov-16-2024-in-new-york-with-kid-rock-donald-trump-jr-dana-white-and-elon-musk-ap-photoevan-vucci Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President in January. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Today, Ireland’s trade policy is determined at the level of the European Union (EU). Given its often arcane nature, limited attention is typically paid to trade policy in public discourse. Debates tend to be confined to experts, researchers and campaigners, and relate to important but often technical matters regarding the terms and conditions of trade with different parts of the world. The Occupied Territories Bill, which would ban trade with territories deemed occupied under international law, can be seen as the exception that proves the rule, as it has obtained renewed attention as the devastating consequences of the war in Gaza continue to play out.

Ireland abroad

Development activities are traditionally another mainstay of Irish foreign policy, and Ireland enjoys a well-earned reputation as a leader in this field. Research published by Dóchas finds that three in four Irish people believe that providing overseas aid is important, with one in three favouring an increase in the level of government spending.

Meanwhile, Ireland maintains an unbroken record of service in UN peacekeeping since the country’s first deployment in 1958. This includes some 340 personnel currently deployed with the UNIFIL mission in Lebanon. Similar to the country’s commitment the development assistance, Irish involvement in UN missions, receives widespread support from the citizenry.

Ireland’s commitment to multilateralism is perhaps most clearly displayed by the country’s membership of the EU since 1973, which has provided an outlet for Ireland to express and develop its foreign policy priorities. There remains little organised political opposition to EU membership in Ireland and, all told, the population remains among the most supportive of their country’s place in the EU.

The historical lack of emphasis on foreign policy in Ireland is of course also partly explained by geography, which places the country at a physical remove from many of the major conflicts over recent centuries.

The fact that Ireland was not a colonial power and has been historically militarily neutral, has also helped to shape relatively congenial relations with many countries, especially in the Global South.

Taken together, all this contributes to the high degree of consensus that there is when it comes to matters of foreign policy in Ireland, which has seen it feature only peripherally at best in election coverage and political party manifestoes.

Shifting sands

Yet, new geopolitical fissures are emerging that challenge this consensus. Issues ranging from the prospect of cyber and hybrid warfare, the fallout from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the machinations in US politics and the potential impact this might have on trade relations, demographic change and migration, climate change and renewed great power competition including the rise of China are all reshaping the geopolitical context. Ireland finds itself in this context.

It is an understatement to say that we are at a moment of enormous geopolitical tension and contestation by any historical standard, and the withdrawal of the UK and the changing character of politics in the US has only highlighted Ireland’s new geopolitical position and potential vulnerability.

All governments, including Ireland’s, must decide how to react to challenges such as these. Notably, the Irish Government has already moved to strengthen its diplomatic networks over recent years and has been pursuing a more expansive foreign policy agenda. The Government’s 2018 Global Ireland Strategy aims to double Ireland’s diplomatic footprint by 2025. Over the past five years, 19 new diplomatic missions have been opened, including in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, and Serbia, with missions in Islamabad, Milan and Munich to open this year, while Dublin has recently welcomed new diplomatic missions from the likes of Barbados, Iraq, and Sweden.

52886105284_b74bc3f91b_c Russian ships have been active in Irish waters in recent months near where vital undersea cables are found. Irish Air Corps Irish Air Corps

Ireland’s term on the UN Security Council (2021-2022), its ongoing campaign for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council, and initiatives such as the Government’s 2023 Strategy for Partnership with Small Island Developing States, also sees Ireland staking out a new geopolitical position, and one that is ever closer to the centre of global affairs.

Notably, Ireland also finds itself departing meaningfully from some EU partners regarding the ongoing violence in the Middle East, with Ireland among the most critical voices globally when it comes to Israeli’s ongoing campaign in the region.

Screenshot 2024-11-19 at 16.30.40 British warship HMS Iron Duke shadowing the Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk through the English Channel and into the Atlantic Ocean. British MOD British MOD

Clearly, given the many geopolitical challenges that countries like Ireland now face, alongside the increasing scale of Ireland’s foreign policy enterprise, matters of foreign policy must be subject to robust public scrutiny.

Fundamentally, at election time, it is for politicians and candidates to inform the public about where they stand on the big questions of the day. Additionally, media and commentators must promote informed and robust discussion around matters of foreign policy and must ensure they are central to coverage and debate in advance of the forthcoming General Election.

Barry Colfer is Director of Research at the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), a Dublin-based public policy and international affairs think tank and a research fellow in politics at the University of Cambridge. He holds a PhD in politics from Cambridge and previously held postdoctoral fellowships at Oxford, Harvard, and the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence.

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    Mute common sense
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:12 AM

    Ireland’s foreign policy is to import the entire world.

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:41 AM

    @common sense: 2050 were easily a minority. Lefties will come at you for saying this, calling you all sort of names, but they will never say you’re wrong. Look at the trajectory of the decline of the share in population of ethnic Irish. Down and down and down year on year.

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 10:17 AM

    @Cole Palmer: I say you’re wrong. So I call on you to back up your prediction of being outnumbered by 2050 – what exactly is your starting point? what are your assumptions about the future? Highlight the variables? Any risks to your forecast that you might want to highlight. I look forward to your response

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    Mute Sean Hayes
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    Nov 20th 2024, 11:27 AM

    @Cole Palmer: You’re wrong!

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 20th 2024, 11:40 AM

    @Kevin Kerr:” Irish could be minority ethnic group here by 2050 – professor

    Ireland’s native population could be in a minority by the middle of this century”

    That was an Irish Times headline in 2006, when the % of immigrants in Ireland was a lot lower. Now, I fully expect you to spin that into some shixx that sounds good in your own head, seeing as you’re a fan of young male migrants.

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 12:28 PM

    @Finian McG: ah yes, a prediction based on unpublished UK research which states that people of Chinese origin will be the largest group. Nearly 20 years later, let me know how this prediction is going

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 20th 2024, 12:34 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: did you miss the ’2050′ bit you thick eejit?

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 12:49 PM

    @Finian McG: no, dopey, my point is that, 20 years into this 44 year prediction, how has the mix changed? Are ethnic Irish on track to become a minority by 2050? No they’re not. There are 60,000 Chinese nationals living in Ireland – 87% of our population is either Irish (77%) or other white (10%)

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    Mute Pork Hunt
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    Nov 20th 2024, 1:00 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: we could have 400000 Ukrainians next year

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 1:56 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: I never said white, I said ethnic Irish. Our share of the population is dropping year on year. Check the consensus over the past 2 decades. It is a FACT that immigrants of East Asia and Africa breathe at a far higher rate than we do. Are you going to deny this now? The majority of our immigrants are from East Asia and Africa. Therefore if immigration continues the way it is, we will be a minority by the absolute maximum 2050. As soon as you lefties give up on debating this non-debate, you will say ‘so what ?’. I’ve seen it over and over. If you don’t see that as a problem, then I don’t know what to tell you, I give up. You will then go and contradict yourself saying Palestinians should have a right to there own land, which they certainly should.

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 2:10 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: ‘How has it changed?’ Are you being serious? According to CSO.ie, 150,000 immigrants came in 2024. That is 3% of the population. I said if immigration continues the way it does, so 150,000 a year until 2050 is 26 x 150,000, which equals 3,900,000. We are not reaching the 2.1 birthdate needed to PRESERVE our population size. So our share of the population will actually decline from 3.85 million. So 3,900,000 immigrants (not including children they have) is higher than our 77% share which will, according to our birthdate, decline from 3,850,000. Just like Japan, who’s Japanese population continues to drop every year from a lower than 2.1 birthrate per woman. Since 2008, Japans population has being decreasing every year. Can’t wait for your reply.

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 2:18 PM

    @Cole Palmer: Plus, we had 50,000 immigrants year ending April 2004, we had 89,000 year ending April 2022, we had 141,000 year ending April 2023, 150,000 year ending April 2024. I wonder what the figures will be in April of 2025? I would bet my house that’s its higher than 150,000. In 5 years I would bet my house it will be higher than 200,000…….

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 3:40 PM

    @Cole Palmer: so you have picked the year with the record number of immigrants to Ireland and assumed that this will continue until 2050. And of course, you haven’t factored in emigration to give an accurate net migration number. And of course, the emigration and immigration numbers are a mix of ethnic Irish people, and those who are not. So, in summary, your analysis is so full of holes that it makes no sense

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 3:46 PM

    @Cole Palmer: and yes, of course I accept that the proportion of “indigenous Irish” has dropped. It is the rate of future drop that I dispute. Sure, even in the UK, where people have been emigrating to since the 1950’s, “white British” make up 76% of the England and Wales population. You’re deluded

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 5:50 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: I chose 2024, because it is literally the year we’re in. I didn’t ‘choose the year with highest immigration level’. April, 2025 is on track to be even higher. 10s of thousands of Palestinians will be coming here very soon after they’re forced to evacuate from the atrocity Israel is committing. They know that Irish will mostly accept them because we go around waving their flag. They will want to coke here and nobody will stop them, as they have ‘the right to seek international protection’ anywhere. Palestinians though have a history of being very dangerous wherever they go. They launched a coup on Jordan’s monarchy, they attacked the Lebanon Christian front after Lebanon gave them refuge in 1948, effectively taking over Lebanon which was once majority Christian. Now 70% Muslim.

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    Mute Cole Palmer
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    Nov 20th 2024, 5:51 PM

    @Cole Palmer: it was majority Christian in 1975

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:09 PM

    @Cole Palmer: generally speaking, net inward migration will reflect economic activity, not asylum seeker numbers. So if our economy is booming, workers will come – if it isn’t, they won’t. So to assume that this 150k number will not only be maintained, but will increase over the next 26 years makes no sense. You clearly have no idea how population demographics work

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    Mute The next small thing
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:18 AM

    We are tiny open country dependent on foreign investment. By all means work away in the background but we should not be taking unilateral decisions that will damage our economy. Ask yourself, how much extra tax are you willing to pay so we can take a stand over some conflict that has been going on for decades and will continue regardless of Irelands position on the matter. We are full of our own self importance.

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    Mute thomas molloy
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:41 AM

    @The next small thing: We even have pro Hamas politicians going up for election.

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    Mute A W
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:50 AM

    @thomas molloy: lads we need brits again to help us with that’s iner issues…

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:12 AM

    @A W: Say what?

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:13 AM

    @thomas molloy: No no we don’t. Why spread lies?

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    Mute Alex
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:26 AM

    @Ger Whelan: Yes we do.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 10:09 AM

    @Alex: which politician running has been “pro hamas”. I’ve never seen hamas mentioned by any of them in their election manifestos.

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    Mute Jim Ryan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 7:15 AM

    When it comes to global matters Ireland is as helpless as a plastic duck bobbing in an ocean .

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:01 AM

    @Jim Ryan: Ireland’s third-level education system is churning out graduates for US tech and pharma multinationals for years. At this stage we should be asking why Ireland doesn’t have it’s own thriving indigenous tech and pharma industries. It would make us a lot more independent and less prone to whoever happens in US politics. We need to invest in Innovation.

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    Mute Finian McG
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:03 AM

    @Finian McG: *whatever happens*

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    Mute Derick R M
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:19 AM

    @Jim Ryan: We seem to want to endlessly meddle but without any means of self defence. It’s an interesting approach.

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    Mute A W
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:51 AM

    @Finian McG: stay under stone buddies…

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    Mute A W
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:53 AM

    @Derick R M: lord help us with historical bs and no actions…

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    Mute Alex
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:25 AM

    @Finian McG: All your blabbering is just a big lie. You never worked for any of those companies and it shows in your uneducated comments. Keep yourself on welfare.

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    Mute Elizabeth Doyle
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    Nov 20th 2024, 7:33 AM

    When it comes to defending our own waters we seem to have to depend on the Bantry Fishermen.what is all this chest puffing Unifil troops in Leabanon.,its an utter joke.!!!!!

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    Mute Pork Hunt
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    Nov 20th 2024, 8:18 AM

    @Elizabeth Doyle: unifil makes EU news , protecting Irish waters won’t. We sold the sea to save the farmers

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 9:12 AM

    @Elizabeth Doyle: What did the Bantry fishermen do to defend our waters?

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    Mute Eoghan
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    Nov 20th 2024, 1:54 PM

    Bad opinion, vast majority of people couldn’t care less about foreign policy when it comes down to it. Highly unadvisable for a party to centre it’s campaign on Foreign Policy rather than issues people actually care about.

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    Mute Frank O'Hara
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    Nov 20th 2024, 5:20 PM

    It’s pretty simple. We need a party which has an explicitly pro-West foreign policy. One which is strongly pro-Ukraine, pro-Israel, anti-China and anti-Iran. One which has the hunger to join NATO and one which supports abolishing neutrality and increasing military spending to 3% of our GDP. Unfortunately, every party in Ireland seems to be bone-headed on foreign policy. Either they are pro-Russia, pro-Hamas or both. Every party wants to suck up to China and every party seems to be obsessed with neutrality. What a joke! Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Fein and all the other small left-wing parties have terrible foreign policy positions.

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