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EUROPE’S AIR TRAFFIC control agency, Eurocontrol, has warned airlines to avoid airspace in the Eastern Mediterranean due to the danger of missile attacks in the coming days. As President Trump warns of imminent airstrikes in Syria and Russia threatens retaliation, what can we expect to happen in the coming days?
To begin with, US airstrikes are nothing new within Syria. Since 2014, the United States has committed significant military assets to support a coalition of military groups opposed to President Bashar Al Assad’s regime in Damascus. This coalition of groups – ranging from Kurdish elements to Sunni militias – are known collectively as the SDF, or Syrian Democratic Forces.
At present, the US has approximately 2,000 ground troops consisting of special forces, artillery and forward air support personnel within Syria. These troops are providing command and control and tactical ground and air support to dwindling SDF operations predominantly in northern Syria, east of the Euphrates River.
Since 2014, the US has committed $14 billion to its military efforts to oust President Assad’s regime. This has included $13 million per day – every day – over four years in constant rolling airstrikes against Assad’s Syrian Arab National Army (SANA). This costly and drawn out military campaign has succeeded in destroying Islamic State’s so-called caliphate within Syria, but it has failed completely to damage Assad’s regime.
A bloody and merciless civil war
On the contrary, President Assad and the Syrian Arab National Army have retaken approximately 75% of Syria’s territory in a bloody and merciless civil war. Vladimir Putin and Russian forces have been instrumental in ensuring that President Assad – along with his Hezbollah and Iranian allies – have effectively won the war in Syria. Since 2015, Putin has provided Assad’s regime with Russian air force jets and helicopters in close support operations to besiege, bombard and destroy rebel held towns and cities throughout Syria.
As each rebel stronghold has been destroyed – with enormous civilian casualties – Assad has stitched together a patchwork quilt of government-controlled territories and corridors throughout Syria to the extent that he now controls almost all of its territory.
Putin’s support for Assad was a game-changer in this vicious civil war. With the fall of Douma at the weekend – with the alleged use of chemical weapons there – it is effectively game over for Syria’s armed opposition, the SDF. It also signals the end of any realistic military options for the United States within Syria. It is against this background that the Trump administration has announced its intention to launch a new round of air strikes against the regime.
In an otherwise seemingly chaotic White House, the Trump administration has been consistent in its armed response to chemical attacks on civilians in Syria. In April 2017, Trump ordered missile strikes after a sarin gas attack on civilians at Khan Sheikhoun in central Syria. Up to 60 US Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched at Assad’s Sharyat air base close to Homs in response to this bestial war crime. Supporters of Trump contrast this swift response with President Obama’s relative inaction after a horrific chemical attack on Syrian civilians in Eastern Ghouta in 2013.
Some Trump staff keen to make a mark
In the year since Trump’s missile strikes of April 2017, there have been some major – and highly significant – changes in his White House staff. He has replaced his relatively bland and inept Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with a very hawkish Mike Pompeo, former Director of the CIA. He has also rid himself of the steadying hand of his seasoned National Security Advisor Lieutenant General HR McMaster and replaced him with firebrand John Bolton.
Bolton, who started as National Security Advisor this week will be keen to make his mark in this current crisis. Bolton – who is worryingly referred to as a ‘Super-Hawk’ within Republican circles – is currently working with Pompeo on Trump’s missile response with the aid of US Secretary of Defence, General ‘Mad-Dog’ Jim Mattis. In defence and intelligence circles there is considerable speculation that the administration will seek to re-assert the military, diplomatic and military reputation of the United States in the Middle East with a ‘shock and awe’ type response to the alleged chemical attack in Douma.
Trump has considerable assets within the Eastern Mediterranean with which to inflict a prolonged air strike and missile campaign against the Russian- and Iranian-backed Assad regime. At present there are two US Navy destroyers on station off the Syrian coastline with cruise missile capability. The US Aircraft Carrier Strike Group – USS Harry Truman – is also entering operational range off the Lebanese coastline. In fact, the final approach of this aircraft carrier group may explain to some extent the current delay in launching President Trump’s much heralded missile response.
The aircraft carrier group will significantly increase the number of US navy destroyers and submarines capable of launching Tomahawk cruise missiles at military and air targets throughout Syria. It will also provide Trump and his White House Staff with over 70 combat aircraft capable of conducting round the clock rolling airstrikes on Syrian targets.
The first task of the United States will be to destroy Assad’s meagre air defence systems consisting of any aircraft – Russian manufactured jets and helicopters – operated by the Syrian Arab National Army, along with any of their surface to air missile batteries. The destruction of these assets will also deprive the Assad regime of the principal means of delivery of the regime’s weapon of choice – so-called ‘Barrel Bombs’ allegedly used to drop chemical weapons on civilian targets.
It is possible, if a prolonged campaign emerges, that the US will seek to destroy Assad’s artillery and missile battery units dispersed throughout the areas of the country currently controlled by him. In short, the likely US military response will consist of two distinct phases, waves of cruise missile strikes designed to degrade Syrian air defences and command and control infrastructure followed by rolling air strikes intended to destroy – in detail – their artillery and missile-based military infrastructure.
The two major drawbacks of a strike
Whilst this concept of operations is depressingly predictable, it has two major drawbacks. Firstly, it risks bringing the US and Russia into direct armed confrontation. With Putin’s ground and air assets dispersed throughout Syria – in support of Assad’s forces – the risk of hitting Russian targets is high. Particularly when the Russians have stated that they will use their sophisticated S-400 ballistic missile system against incoming US projectiles along with the naval platforms used to launch them. It is known that the Russians have stocks of 9M96 missiles deployed to Syria – capable of destroying US cruise missiles and aircraft within Syrian airspace.
Assad’s forces have already begun to move some of their material and assets to regional Russian bases such as Hmeymim along with the large Russian bases at Latakia and Tartus on the coast. The Russian defence ministry has also demanded from the United States a full list of their intended targets with dire warnings of retaliation if Russian personnel or equipment is targeted either deliberately or accidentally. These warnings may flow from a serious incident in February of this year when US airstrikes killed dozens of Russian Special Forces troops who were supporting an Assad assault on US positions at Khusham in Deir al-Zour Province.
The second drawback to the proposed US missile and airstrike retaliation is that it is unlikely to make any material difference on the ground to the de facto victory of President Assad and his forces in Syria’s civil war. The US administration know this and it may be the case that the real purpose of this latest military escalation is to send a message to Russia and Iran that the US will not tolerate their growing strength and influence throughout the Middle East.
In the next few days, we may see the opening shots of a long and extremely costly proxy regional war in the Middle East with Russia, Iran and Hizbollah on one side, and the US, Israel and a coalition of Gulf States on the other.
Whilst this does not represent the beginning of a global conflict or a third world war – Russia is unlikely to escalate to a war with the US unless its own territory is directly threatened – it may represent a step in that direction. This is a time for cool heads and calm leadership – the accidental downing of a civilian airliner or some other unforeseen incident could trip a catastrophic multi-regional conflict.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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A & E departments in this country are a complete fluster cuck… I’d hate to be a nurse trying to work in such conditions. Absolute disgrace!!!
If FG Labour get back into power this farce will continue. People wake up and vote this courpt government out.
Who’s the alternative to fix it Colm? I’m not trying to be smart but who would you recommend that would prioritise health?
Perhaps those who had to emigrate will prove lucky.
I know an Icelandic senior executive who was appointed to a superbly paid senior position in Ireland. His younger child fell down the stairs and knocked her head. Fortunately, it was only a mild concussion as it turned out but they thought that it was worse. He and his wife brought their daughter to A & E in a Dublin hospital. Their experience convinced him to pull out of Ireland because he said a third world health service would have been too favourable a description of the Dublin hospital. He was impressed by the nurses and doctors but said that they were under too much pressure with too little resource and too much delay in emergency diagnostic tests.
His remark was that he was less concerned about taxes and Irish rents as he was about health and emergency care.
The family had full private health insurance.
A friend of mine recently died of bowel cancer, having spent a lot of time in another Dublin hospital. His neglectful treatment due to over worked and over loaded medical staff was terribly and horrifically bad. His family and friends ended up doing a lot of the support claim. Nightmare.
It is no longer A&E which is crisis.
Ray Walley needs to visit the Mater ED. About 60% of all patients are non emergency there. Then you need to talk about bed blockers. A friend who did his rotation in the Mater was verbally abused by the son of a patient. He wanted to discharge an 80 year old non critical patient. She was non critical and at her aged exposed to hospital borne infections – best for all concerned. Why was the son so irate?
He simply said it was not his job to look after his mother and he was off to Santa Ponza or wherever and “counted” on his mother being in hospital.
As there was no family member to care for her, they simply had to keep her…at the expense of another patient needing a bed. These stories are ten a penny.
I’m an ED doctor and sadly you are right…
I also know of a patient with brain metastisis with who was discharged home by the Mater hospital to a sheltered complex in to the care of her daughter who herself was in the care of the HSE with little regard to her health, safety or welfare. Perhaps your doctor friend should learn to be a little bit more empathetic and not to sit in judgement over patients and their families who might be grappling with personal life circumstances, the details of which that may not be fully understood by your friend. Not everybody is born with the vocation, ability or training or the physical or mental ability to be a full-time carer with little or no respite or community support systems 24/7.
No you aren’t.
When they closed down Ed departments and made people from numerous counties converge on hospitals that had beds cut. What did they think would happen. Absolutely national disgrace. As long as the unsecured bondholders are paid their billions , let the people suffer and this what this government of fg and labour have done.
“we will end the scandal of patients on trolleys “…. Phfff.
My elderly parents are terrified of the thought of having to go to hospital. I can tell you one thing, they now know who not to vote for!
If I got a cheque for a 100,000,000 I couldn’t build a block, what is he on about,where is the hospitals he closed.
Or the wards within hospitals that are closed?
was in A and E recently, not too bad depending on the time
What’s the purpose of primary care centres ?
Everyone can see what’s wrong with the current Health System, often the mistakes are painfully evident as the government make them and the results predictably obvious, such as closing every facility in an area and then being surprised when the only hospital can’t cope with the numbers of patients having to use it. This is happening up and down the country. You can’t take 1,400 beds out of a Health System like ours without a knock-on effect, this is those beds. They’re divided between elderly people in nursing homes, people on chairs and trolleys in hospital corridors. Our hospitals now hide sick people, call it an improvement. And we accept this.
In the UK hospitals MUST see their patients within hours, if they’re then being admitted this MUST happen within another set timeframe. Not here. A patient In Ireland may be seen today, or tomorrow, regardless of their condition, age, disease etc. If they’re to be admitted, well, they could spend a week on a trolley in a cold busy corridor with no regard for age, condition, dignity, hygiene, confidentiality, if they’re immunocompromised or infected and a risk to others. The 69 year woman on a chair for the night with a broken hip will be charged the same amount as the car crash patient rushed into Resus followed by a High Dependency bed. Although she may be in more pain.
Our political leaders visit hospitals, but always previously announced, and miraculously the patients on trolleys are hidden away. It’s either amazing luck or acceptance of patients doubling and tripling up in rooms, sleeping in clinics at night and moving out during the day while they take place, in cupboards, waiting areas even toilets etc. This is how bad it’s become, and we’ve accepted it.
We need more hospitals, not necessarily big ones but smaller ‘Cottage type’ hospitals to take the pressure off the existing hospitals. Yes, something similar to what was closed in many areas doing exactly this, they don’t have to do complicated surgeries and each one have the most modern MRI, CT and up to date list of equipment, that can still be done in the main hospital. They just have to have the basics, beds, nurses, some doctors and they can take those patients often described as ‘bed blockers’ (forgive the use of this term, I don’t like it).
Imagine having just one 100 bed facility like this in each area, the trolleys and chairs would be gone overnight from all the ED Departments, probably allowing the entire hospital to relax somewhat. And the best bit, those facilities are probably already there, this or the previous government closed them. Ok, they’ll probably need some work, but it’s cheaper, and quicker, than any alternative.
What do we really expect when the primary function of our hospitals has become the enrichments of the medical/chemical industrial complex.
@Johnneary I don’t believe it’s anything quite that simple. I believe Minister Brendan Howlin said in an interview about 10 years ago that in order to have 30%, the desired amount, of our population take up private health insurance they need an incentive. If the public Health System worked perfectly they would have no need of health insurance, hence it doesn’t and, at that time at any rate, they did.
To be honest I don’t think there is any one single issue that causes the health System to collapse the way it does, and it’s worth remembering too that it does work very well for thousands of people every day. As I said we can’t take that amount of beds out of it without having an effect. We can’t close facilities with the promise of something to replace them, but nothing ever materialises. The government can stick a sign on a hospital calling it a ‘Center of Excellence’, without serious and meaningful investment it’s worthless, a joke.
We keep allowing unqualified people to make decisions about our Health System and then when everyone realises, but won’t say it openly, that they’ve made a complete balls of it – again, they hire an international expert to have a look at it. This usually takes a few years where the genuine expert will come here on a substantial contract believing they can make a difference, and they probably could if anyone would listen and act on their recommendations. But this is Ireland, if that were to happen it would mean admitting someone made mistakes, probably a lot of expensive mistakes, and doing the right thing to correct them would be political suicide. So after a few years of being ignored the expert either quits in frustration or takes a higher paid job somewhere else in ‘the system’ to shut up and nod.
The end result is that nothing changes, remember what Einstein said? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result. Until we learn and stop repeating our mistakes, look at other countries with similar issues, see what they did and do the same. Don’t be dumb enough to think we can cut corners to save money. So far, I see no evidence of that happening.
Another solution is build more convalescence homes and those taking up bed space well enough to be discharged send them to the convalescence homes thus freeing up beds
But then on the other hand you’ll have people turn up at A&E with minor ailments or pissed drunk, recently I was in A&E there was a traveller pissed drunk in a wheelchair vomiting rings around himself there didn’t appear to be anything else wrong apart from being drunk. That to me is a waste of resources I’ve seen people present to A&E with tummy upsets when they could go Caredoc
Tom, basic point is we need a Minister for Health who will deal with the scandal of what you describe. Varadkar, I’m afraid, isn’t that Minister. Since his appointment, he’s behaved more like the clock watcher who’s waiting patiently for the Maths class to end rather than someone who’s willing to roll up his sleeves and do some serious reform. Based on their performance in Health, Justice and immigration, this FG/Lab government do not deserve to be re-elected. And as for the economy, that’s down to the hard work and sacrifices of the Irish workers not anything Enda the muppet did.
Heard an eminent professor on radio this morning offer this suggestion to solve the bed problem. Swap the elderly people who are occupying beds in wards, (although fit to be discharged), with those on trolleys and yippee the problem is solved!! Em, just one question, how are the elderly supposed to survive lying on trolleys in corridors?? Will the necessary medical staff be available to these beds scattered around the hospitals? Titanic and deck chairs come to mind.
Why have we not heard one bed manager from any hospital being publicly interviewed as to what she/ he is doing to alleviate the problem? Where are all the folder people? What are they doing??
Many of the elderly are non critical and should not be in a critical care bed.
Yes Tom, but what use would it be to simply place them on trolleys in a corridor!
A better idea would be for all sides in this dispute to work towards ending deadlock over the price to be paid for nursing home beds, where the fund is offering €1,150 per patient a week and AnovoCare holding out for €1,200 while over 500 people are on trolleys.
Because the hard working citizens who don’t live on handouts have to consider cost when it comes to even their health. GP is cheeper than €100 A&E fee. Very easy to visit A&E for any cough or sniffle when its all free.
This article just jumped from , sensible people putting their lives at risk by going to the GP instead of the A&E to, the situation is getting worse because there is not enough beds and the “message” is not being heard!!!??? Where is the link? What are you trying to say?
Missyb211 I think what he’s trying to say I that the ministers advice has been to go to your gp if your I’ll first instead of going to hospital and the person replied that people are foolishly taking that advice to the detriment of their health, to me that only confirms that the minister doesn’t know what he’s taking about. If you have chest pains and are having a heart attack it’s my understanding that a hospital is where you need to be and not making an appointment to see your local gp, bare in mind that I’m not a doctor. Leo thinks that if your having a heart attack you should ring your gp and make an appointment to see him and then drive or walk, taxi whatever and pay your 60 Euro to see your gp who could very possibly say for you to go to hospital, so that you can sit in a deckchair for days in the hope that you may get a trolley and then hopefully get a bed many days later. So really you could be going from a life where you carry on daily going to work paying your taxes, going on trips with your kids to the zoo etc. Just getting on with a normal life when suddenly your catapulted into a nightmare scenario where all the expectations of a civilized society are out the window and your giving contradictory and conflicting advice.
Dial 999 if you are in a position to do so,easiest way out
I went to my GP on Tuesday with chest pain (I’m a chronic asthmatic) she put me on a nebuliser and asked why I didn’t go straight to the mater hospital. I asked her does she really need an answer to that! She rang an ambulance and I got a shot of steroids. Got to the mater hospital it was packed. They kept me for 4 hours on back to back nebs. My oxygen levels were 89% and they sent me home. People wonder why people so sick don’t go to the hospital.
Remember this when you are voting folks
And on the flip side of that, people who should be going to their GP are clogging up the Emergency Depts.
Just kill the chronically sick elderly. Loadsa beds. Simples.
No don’t, only joking, no really, just a bit of gallows humour ((I’m one of them)……
I have decided not to be a burden on the inadequate Irish health system if or when I get bad news.
You can’t run a public hospital service when private patients are taking up the beds.private patients should be treated in private hospitals. Simple
To save lives,varadkar must go.for gods sake go
Hold on. Are people not being actively urged, on all the media, NOT to go to A & E Departments because of the chaotic conditions? Damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.
This government has failed for 5 years in services involving the ordinary people of this country. Varadkar and Kelly n particular. They are putting people’s lives at risk and should resign now.
Does anyone in health have any idea where the problems are and how to address them. We have hospitals with closed beds because front line staff won’t work for peanuts. Does every idea to fix problems get politicised once the minister gets involve, primary health centres placed were the minister wants them not where the public needs them. The minister complains that even 100 million for health is not enough while Denis o brief walks away with a profit of 200 million on destressed assets sold by NAMA. We are being plundered by doners to politicial parties who don’t even pay tax in this country. After another five years of FG we may be told to visit vets because private hospitals don’t allow public patients. Even reeling in the years shows us running around in circles year after year because the fear of change allows corruption to contuine.
It’s all the unsensible ones that go to A&E regularly with the slightest sickness instead of going to their GP first that are the problem.
The other way around in the UK
in the UK they have the NHS direct phone service where you access a type of triage trained nurse who will advise whether you should go to A&E or GP . perhaps its a bit of a risk as the nurse cannot fully assess a patient without physically seeing them but the likes of a person ringing conplaining of chest pain would always be advised to go to A&E instead of their GP. someone with a sore toe for 3 months however would be advised to go to their gp. unless there were other problems…alot people dont know what an emergency is and what it isnt. they need advice. and common sense!!
Being elderly and in hospital is very bad for your health.
Aren’t the A&Es in many hospitals telling patients not to present? And now GPs telling patients to go to A&Es? The whole system of access is gone crazy!!! Whatever you do, don’t get sick!!
There is only one strong lobby group doing well in the mire that is our health service
At least they acknowledge there’s a problem. But if they got 100 million tomorrow, would they put it towards starting the building process for beds to go in to????
have your say